*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27th
Russian forces have not abandoned efforts to reconstitute forces northwest of Kyiv to resume major offensive operations, and the commander of Russia’s Eastern Military District (EMD) may be personally commanding the operations. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia’s 35th Combined Arms Army is rotating damaged units into Belarus and that Russian forces established a command post for all EMD forces operating around Kyiv in the Chernobyl area. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses in EMD units and deploy additional reinforcements forward are unlikely to enable Russia to successfully resume major operations around Kyiv in the near future. The increasingly static nature of the fighting around Kyiv reflects the incapacity of Russian forces rather than any shift in Russian objectives or efforts at this time.
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks in several locations, recapturing territory east of Kyiv, in Sumy Oblast, and around Kharkiv in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian counterattacks are likely enabling Ukrainian forces to recapture key terrain and disrupt Russian efforts to resume major offensive operations. Likely escalating Ukrainian partisan operations around Kherson are additionally tying down Russian forces. Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, but Russian assaults largely failed elsewhere in the past 24 hours.
The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report Russian difficulties to replace personnel and equipment losses. The General Staff reported on March 27 that Russian forces are increasingly using old and substandard ammunition, leading to a rise in the rate of accidents at Russian arsenals and depots, particularly highlighting the use of old munitions by the 35th Combined Arms Army’s 165th Artillery Brigade, operating northwest of Kyiv. The General Staff additionally stated that Russia has deployed up to nine logistics battalions and up to five “main logistics centers” to Ukraine to solve ongoing supply challenges.
-Russian Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Colonel-General Alexander Chayko may be personally commanding efforts to regroup Russian forces in Belarus and resume operations to encircle Kyiv from the west. The Kremlin is highly unlikely to have abandoned its efforts to encircle Kyiv but will likely be unable to cohere the combat power necessary to resume major offensive operations in the near future.
-Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces conducted major operations northwest of Kyiv in the last 24 hours.
-Ukrainian forces counterattacking east of Brovary since March 24 successfully retook territory late on March 26.
-Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks in Sumy Oblast on March 26-27.
-Fighting continued around Izyum in the past 24 hours, with little territory changing hands.
-Russian forces continued steady advances in Mariupol.
-Ukrainian partisans around Kherson continue to tie down Rosgvardia units in the region, likely hindering Russian capabilities to resume offensive operations in the southern direction.
-Russian missiles have hit in different cities around Ukraine. Reportedly, Lutsk, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv
-The Ukrainian military claimed Russia has withdrawn troops that were surrounding Kyiv after suffering significant losses in its latest operational report.
-According to Ukraine’s general staff of the armed forces, Ukrainian forces continue to restrain Russian troops from taking control of key highways and settlements in the city of Kyiv. A total of 5 enemy attacks were repelled from Donetsk and Luhansk with Ukrainian soldiers destroying 2 tanks, a combat machine infantry and one car, the report reads.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-US president Joe Biden has denied he is calling for regime change in Russia, after he said during a visit to Poland that Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power”. When asked by a reporter if he wanted to see the Russian president removed from office, he said “no”. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, had already distanced himself from Biden’s comments, while the UK cabinet minister Nadhim Zahawi distanced the UK government from his remarks.
-Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russian investigators would look into a video circulating on social media that purported to show Ukrainian forces mistreating captured Russian soldiers. Peskov said the video, which he described as containing “monstrous images”, needed to be legally assessed and for those who took part in what he described as torture to be held responsible. Peskov also said that Joe Biden’s comments that Vladimir Putin could not remain in power were a cause for concern. Reuters reports he said Moscow would continue to closely follow Biden’s statements. Biden made the comments in Warsaw on Saturday, then later said the US does not have a policy of regime change in Russia.
-Russia’s foreign affairs minister Sergei Lavrov appears to have ruled out any direct meetings between Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, saying it would be counter-productive.
-Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said that his nation’s relations with China were at their strongest level ever. China has been one of the countries that has not condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and has been highly critical of western sanctions and the mooted attempt to expel Russia from the G20 group of major economies over it.
-Support from many African leaders and governments for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine – or at least reluctance to condemn it – has dismayed western officials. At the UN general assembly, on resolution 17 African nations abstained – almost half all abstentions – and one voted against, condemning Russia for its “aggression” and demanding a withdrawal from Ukraine, though a majority of African countries gave it their backing.
-Ukraine has no plans to open any humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians from besieged cities on Monday because of intelligence reports warning of possible Russian “provocations” along the routes, deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said this morning, according to reports from Reuters.
-Gazprom, Russia’s energy giant, has issued its daily figures, saying that it continues to ship gas to Europe via Ukraine – giving a volume of 109.5m cubic metres.
-Speaking more than a month after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, Zelenskiy said no peace deal would be possible without a ceasefire and troop withdrawals.He ruled out trying to recapture all Russian-held territory by force, saying it would lead to a third world war, and said he wanted to reach a “compromise” over the eastern Donbass region, held by Russian-backed forces since 2014. Zelenskiy said Ukraine refused to discuss certain other Russian demands, such as the demilitarisation of the country.
-Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Gen Kyrylo Budanov said earlier that he believed that Putin wanted to split Ukraine into two, emulating the postwar division between North and South Korea.
-French president Emmanuel Macron has distanced himself from comments made by the US president Joe Biden about Russia’s Vladimir Putin. In a speech in Warsaw, Poland, last night, Biden said Putin is a “butcher” and said “this man cannot remain in power”. However, the White House later clarified that the US was not calling for regime change. But Macron told broadcaster France 3: “I would not use those words.” He added that “everything must be done to stop the situation from escalating” if there is to be any hope of stopping Russia’s war in Ukraine.
-A UK cabinet minister has distanced the government from Joe Biden’s call that Russia’s Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power” amid criticism that the comment could bolster the Kremlin. Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, said it was “for the Russian people to decide how they are governed” after the unscripted remark from Biden at a speech in Poland, which the White House later said was not a call for regime change.
-The US has no strategy of regime change for Russia, secretary of state Antony Blinken told reporters on Sunday after president Joe Biden said Russian Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power”.
-Turkey and other nations must still talk to Russia to help end the war in Ukraine, Turkey’s presidential spokesman said on Sunday, adding that Kyiv needed more support to defend itself. Nato member Turkey has good relations with both Russia and Ukraine and has sought to mediate in the month-long conflict, Reuters reported. “If everybody burns bridges with Russia then who is going to talk to them at the end of the day,” Ibrahim Kalin told the Doha international forum.
-The Russian-backed self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine could hold a referendum soon on joining Russia, the rebel region’s news outlet cited local leader Leonid Pasechnik as saying on Sunday.
- Online schooling to resume in Ukrainian capital Monday, says Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, adding “It will be more adapted to current conditions. And using different educational platforms for students."
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