*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29th
Russia continues to reinforce its efforts in Ukraine’s northeast likely attempting to link its positions southeast of Kharkiv and Izyum with its forces in Luhansk Oblast. The Russians have reportedly redirected forces from the Chernihiv-Kharkiv axis to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis, most likely reassigning reinforcements rather than redeploying units already committed to fighting. Russian forces in the Izyum-Slovyansk area continue fighting to hold and expand their penetration to the southeast.
The Russian advance in Mariupol continues to gain ground, and Russian forces have likely bisected or even trisected the city. Pockets of Ukrainian defenders continue to hold out in Mariupol, likely in several areas, but the Russians will likely complete the conquest of the city within days. Russian forces have likely taken significant casualties in the tough urban fighting in Mariupol, making it difficult to evaluate how much combat power the Russians will be able to harvest from Mariupol to use for further advances north and west.
Russian operations in southeastern Ukraine have left large portions of Donetsk Oblast under Ukrainian control. Securing the boundaries of Donetsk Oblast along with the entirety of Luhansk Oblast will likely require a major offensive operation. Much of the area of Donetsk Oblast outside Russian control is flat and sparsely populated—terrain similar to that on which Russian forces elsewhere have been able to advance rapidly, at least earlier in the war. Russian offensive operations in similar terrain more recently have struggled, however. It is too soon to tell how feasible the Russian conquest of all of Donetsk and Luhansk will be for the Russian military in its current state.
Russia reportedly continues to struggle in its efforts to generate new combat power and replenish equipment. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 29 that Russian troops are drawing equipment out of long-term storage in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast, but that 40% of that equipment is inoperable. The General Staff also reported that Russian efforts to generate reinforcements from the Pacific Fleet could not produce even a single battalion because of refusals to fight. We have no independent confirmation of these assessments, but Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu‘s March 29 statement that Russia would not deploy conscripts to “hot spots” corroborates assessments of Russian soldiers’ unwillingness to enter the war. The UK Ministry of Defense reported on March 28 that the Wagner Group is deploying forces, including senior leaders, to eastern Ukraine to make up for heavy Russian combat losses.
-Russian forces continued to make steady but likely painful progress in seizing the city of Mariupol on March 29. Fighting has been intense, with Donetsk People’s Republic leaders claiming that Russian forces have made significant advances and the Ukrainian General Staff claiming that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain a coherent defense. Mariupol will likely fall within days.
-We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold their current front-line trace near the city, however, remaining dug into positions to the east, northwest, and west. Russian forces withdrawing from the area around Kyiv appear to be moving north from behind the front line to positions in Belarus.
-Russia is directing some reserves to the effort to connect gains southeast of Kharkiv and Izyum with its front line in Luhansk.
-Ukrainian forces continue to defend in likely isolated pockets in Mariupol. The city will likely fall to the Russians within days.
-A Russian offensive operation to take the rest of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast would be a significant undertaking. It remains unclear if Russia can harvest enough combat power from Mariupol after securing the city or divert reinforcements from elsewhere on a large enough scale to complete it.
-Russian withdrawal from north is merely a rotation of troops with aim to 'mislead', Ukraine military says. Ukraine’s general staff of the armed forces has just released its latest intelligence report as of 10pm local time, claiming Russian troops continue to withdraw from the territory of Kyiv and Chernihiv in the Ukraine’s north but the movement is merely “a rotation of individual units” and aims to “mislead the military leadership” of Ukraine.
-Battle Damage Assessment. Successful Ukrainian ambushes, counterattacks, and supply route raiding have left Russian forces in the Sumy Oblast demoralized & running low on basic soldier & equipment maintenance needs. Equip is routinely abandoned.
-The siege of Sumy has generally been lifted as Ukrainian forces have been able to relieve the city and bisect Russian positions from Sumy to Okhtyrka because of the withdrawal of Russian forces to the Kharkiv-Donbas Strategic Front. The inability of Russian forces to secure multiple lines of communication and a reliable base of operations has fractured operational momentum to the point that localized defense is all the Russian military is capable of sustaining on this front
-It is doubtful Russia will truly “drastically” scale-back operations in Kyiv or Chernihiv. Though efforts will shift to the east, Russia will maintain pressure here as negotiations continue by holding occupied territory and executing limited offensives as opportunity arise.
-Chernihiv remains under Ukrainian control. There are clear indications that Russian forces are establishing a new defensive line along the Snov River to the east/ NE of Chernihiv. It is not clear yet how Russian dispositions in east Kyiv have shifted.
-Ukraine’s eastern city of Lysychansk has been shelled by heavy artillery this morning with widespread damage to residential areas, according to local officials.
-The UK’s Ministry of Defence claims Russian units suffering heavy losses have been forced to return to Belarus and Russia to reorganise and resupply.
-In Ukraine’s intelligence report as of 10pm local time, its military claimed Russian troops continue to withdraw from Kyiv and Chernihiv but the movement is merely “a rotation of individual units” and aims to “mislead the military leadership” of Ukraine.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-A Russian military weapons depot has exploded in the city of Belgorod, close to the Ukrainian border. Russian state media reports that Ukraine shelling struck the arsenal causing it to explode. There are at least four injuries although that may be downplaying the severity of the attack. Witnesses said the strike had “presumably” come either “via drone or short range ballistic missile”. Video of the explosion shared to the social media platform shows a huge explosion illuminating the night sky in the distance of the scene being filmed. It seems to cause the ground to shake, with the clip shuddering up and down as the videographer pans the scene.
-The governor of Ukraine’s northern Chernihiv region said he saw no let-up in Russian attacks despite a promise by Moscow to scale down military operations there.
-Russia and China’s foreign ministers Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi have met today in China
-The US state department has warned American citizens not to travel to Ukraine or Russia in its latest travel advisory. “There are continued reports of US citizens being singled out and detained by the Russian military in Ukraine and when evacuating by land through Russia-occupied territory or to Russia or Belarus,” it said. The US embassy has limited ability to assist US citizens in Russia, it noted.
-Germany has declared an “early warning” that it could be heading for a gas supply emergency and said the measure was aimed at preparing for a possible disruption of natural gas flows from Russia. Economy minister Robert Habeck said supplies had been safeguarded for the time being and that Germany was closely monitoring supply flows with market operations.
-The US State Department earlier implied that Biden's weekend regime change comments saying that "butcher" Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power" were more based in "emotions" and not on official White House policy. Russia has subsequently seized upon the perhaps dubious explanation and walk-back, with the foreign ministry expressing it hopes that Biden's "emotions will not lead to him doing something irreparable and dangerous for the whole world while under their influence." Just prior to the weekend speech from Warsaw, Biden had called Putin a "murderous" and "bloody dictator" and "thug" - this also after last month the US administration imposing personal sanctions on the Russian leader. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov in follow-up said that while security dialogue is needed between Washington and Moscow, this window is rapidly closing due to "personal insults" from the US side, suggesting things could escalate to a more dangerous place. "We really hear and see statements that are actually already personal insults against President Putin," Peskov said as reported in RT. Peskov further indicted that despite such "almost daily" insults, Russia would refrain from responding in kind so as to avoid unnecessary escalation of rhetoric, and to leave open the possibility of dialogue.
-President Biden appeared to reveal on Monday that the US is training Ukrainian troops in Poland. Biden made the comments when trying to explain a recent gaffe. In Poland on Friday, President Biden told members of the 82nd Airborne Division that Ukrainians were “stepping up” against the Russian assault and said, “You’re going to see when you’re there,” suggesting that the US soldiers would be entering the war zone. Explaining his comments on Monday, Biden said, “We were talking about helping train the troops in — that are — the Ukrainian troops that are in Poland. That’s what the context.” When asked about Biden’s comments, a White House official told Politico that US troops are “interacting” with Ukrainian soldiers in Poland. “There are Ukrainian soldiers in Poland interacting on a regular basis with US troops, and that’s what the President was referring to,” the official said.
-Ukraine says that one of its main internet service providers used by the country's military was hit with a massive cyberattack on Monday as part of stepped up Russian efforts to unleash more in its tech arsenal to degrade Ukraine's defense capabilities. Importantly the fresh attack was called among the worst Ukraine has suffered since the war's start. The Wall Street Journal detailed that "The attack on Ukrtelecom PJSC was described by some experts as among the most harmful cyberattacks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. About 3:30 p.m. ET on Monday, Ukrainian officials said that they had repelled the attack, and that the company could restore services, according to a statement from Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communication and Information Protection, which is responsible for cybersecurity in the country."
-Media reports claim that Russia's high command has already started to withdraw forces from around Kiev in what the US believes represents a "major" policy shift.
Russia is beginning to withdraw some forces from around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, in what the US assesses is a “major” strategy shift, two senior US officials tell me. US is already observing movements underway of Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) 1/
In the US view, this is not a short-term adjustment to regroup, but a longer-term move as Russia comes to grips with failure to advance in the north. Russian MOD said Tuesday it has decided to “drastically reduce hostilities” in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions.
Russia has reportedly said it wouldn't mind if the Ukrainians joined the EU, so long as they remain militarily neutral. But whether or not this is a genuine breakthrough remains to be seen. In the scenario that Russia does follow through with its earlier in the day declaration that it will cut military operations around the two named major Ukrainian cities, it's likely to consolidate forces in the east in order to focus on the Donbas region.
It doesn't seem Washington shares in the optimism coming out of the day's concluded Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken commenting negatively on Russian assertions that its military will draw down operations near Kiev and Chernihiv. Blinken while traveling in the Middle East said the US has not seen signs of "real seriousness from Russia" - this after the Pentagon also said it has yet to observe a reduction of fighting from Russian units near Kiev.
Not long after Washington downplayed reports of a Russian drawdown of troops around Kiev and Chernihiv, Interfax reports (citing Russia's top negotiator) that the de-escalation doesn't necessarily mean a ceasefire is near.
-The UK has seen signs of “some reduction” in Russian bombardment around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Downing Street said. However, the UK wants to see a full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine and will judge tentative steps towards a possible peace deal by actions rather than words, Boris Johnson’s spokesperson said.
-The US is seeing Russia beginning to withdraw some of its forces from the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in what it believes is a change in Russian strategy in Ukraine, senior US military officials said. The US is already observing a major strategy shift after Russia’s defence ministry announced earlier today that it would “drastically reduce” military activity outside Kyiv and Chernihiv, according to two senior US officials. Russia is beginning to withdraw some forces, including Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) leaving the surrounding areas around the Ukrainian capital, CNN cited the officials as saying. The Russian forces now pulling back in some areas of the north to focus on gains in the south and east. The officials warned that Russia could always reverse their latest move.
-There needs to be full peace across Ukraine for any final agreement with Russia to come into force, the head of the Ukrainian delegation said following talks with Moscow in Istanbul on Tuesday. David Arakhamia told reporters that all troops must retreat from Ukraine and allow the 3.5 million refugees who fled the war to come back home. He added that there was enough material in Ukraine’s proposals to warrant a meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin.
-It's claimed that Vladimir Putin and his top Kremlin officials are in top secret rural bunkers while they direct their invasion of Ukraine - an alarming signal the war could be about to escalate. New evidence has emerged suggesting that Vladimir Putin and his high command are based some or all the time in top-secret nuclear bunkers as the bloody war unfolds in Ukraine. Since Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine last month (February 24), his whereabouts have been unknown. But movements of planes used by top Kremlin officials show Putin may be in a hideaway near Surgut in western Siberia, it is claimed. His defence minister Sergei Shoigu - who has been mysteriously absent for several weeks sparking rumours about his health - is believed to be in a bunker near Ufa in the Urals, 725 miles east of Moscow, said investigative journalist Christo Grozev. This theory is backed by his daughter Ksenia Shoigu, 31, visiting Ufa - where she was pictured - for up to three days from March 22 as speculation was rife that the defence minister had suffered heart problems. The use of the high-security bunkers - if confirmed - is alarming and suggests Putin may be preparing to deploy nuclear weapons, and move that would lead to inevitable reprisal. Grozev - who has links to British investigative outlet Bellingcat - said: “I am absolutely sure that Shoigu is in a bunker. “Tracking the movement of his plane, we see very frequent flights to Ufa. “Knowing that there are also protected bunkers in this region, this gives an obvious answer about his place of residence.” In an interview with Ukraine-24 channel, he told TV anchor Yevgeny Kiselyov: “This is our very justified version. “I believe in it, and I consider it to be a purely analytical conclusion. There can’t be any other conclusion. “If the Kremlin’s war strategy assumes a nuclear strike - and it does - as [Dmitry] Peskov [Putin’s spokesman] himself said on CNN a couple of days ago, then there cannot be any other version. “If there is a decision of a potential nuclear strike, they can’t hide the military leadership afterwards. They have to be hidden beforehand. “I am absolutely certain he is in a so-called bunker, and by trailing the plane he usually flies, we see very frequent, almost daily flights to Ufa. He believed Putin had another bunker elsewhere: “Most likely he is elsewhere, because we are seeing other flights, and they are more classified than the flight that goes to Ufa. “These are state planes, and they switch off their transponders somewhere around Surgut.” This is Russia ’s oil capital and is some 1,800 miles northeast of Moscow.
-Four Russian officials have been expelled from Ireland for “activities not in accordance with diplomatic behaviour, the Irish department of foreign affairs has said. It will keep diplomatic relations open and allow the Russian embassy to remain open.
-Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskiy will address Australia’s parliament on Thursday evening by video, according to parliament records cited by Reuters.
-US President Joe Biden’s deputy national security adviser for economics, Daleep Singh, will travel to New Delhi and meet government officials to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine and develop an economic framework for the Indo-Pacific, the White House said on Tuesday. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is also planning to visit India, one of the biggest buyers of Russian commodities.
-The war in Ukraine will have a global impact “beyond anything we’ve seen since World War Two” and damage global food security because many of the Ukrainian farmers who produce a significant amount of the world’s wheat are now fighting Russians, the UN’s food chief has warned. David Beasley, executive director of the UN World Food Program, told the UN Security Council that already high food prices are skyrocketing. His agency was feeding 125 million people around the world before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Beasley said it has had to start cutting their rations because of rising food, fuel and shipping costs, the Associated Press reports.
-Former US president Donald Trump has called on Russian president Vladimir Putin to release any damaging information he has about the Biden family and Hunter Biden’s dealings with oligarchs in eastern Europe. “I would think Putin would know the answer to that,” Trump said in an interview with Just the News, referring to Hunter Biden’s potential dealings in Russia. “I think he should release it. I think we should know that answer.” Trump cited a 2020 Senate report that disclosed Russian oligarch Yelena Baturina, then the wife of Moscow’s mayor, provided $3.5 million a decade ago to a company co-founded by President Joe Biden’s son and unanswered questions about why the money was given. “How is it that the mayor of Moscow, his wife gave the Biden family three and a half million dollars? I think Putin now would be willing to probably give that answer,” Trump said. “I’m sure he knows.” A grand jury has been investigating Hunter Biden’s business dealings for possible tax violations, foreign lobbying issues and money laundering but he has denied any wrongdoing.
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