Russia/Ukraine War Update - March 6th, 2022

Scattered corpses. A rain of rockets. 

Modern warfare in the Ukraine is a meat grinder of destructive force.

"The shell that reamed the Russian soldiers' vehicle scattered them in all directions. One was face down on the asphalt, arms outstretched. Another was a mass of white and red in barely-there fatigues. Heat had singed the skin of the third, and the fourth had been thrown 130 feet, landing in a field by the road, torso mangled, legs twisted backward.

The firefight between Ukrainian and Russian forces — it had been a three-vehicle group, including an armored personnel carrier and a Ural truck — erupted on E40, an 8000-mile trans-European highway that threads its way from France’s Calais to Kazakhstan, passing through this spot near a roadside hotel. It's a 24-mile straight shot to the capital, Kyiv.

The battle ended Thursday morning. The cleanup began in the afternoon: A soldier directed traffic around bits of flesh, bone and metal; a tank jerkily hauled a burnt-out armored personnel carrier down the highway; men off to the side unloaded a truckload of large caltrops. Nobody touched the corpses.

Days later, the dead Russian soldiers still lay in the cold, a hint of snow in the air. A battle had come and gone. More were in the offing. The sounds no one wants to hear were moving closer. A bit farther up the road lay a heart without a body. It was unclear from which soldier it had come."

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5 as of 3:00 pm EST

March 5th Map of Russian Operations:

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv, and possibly Odesa in the next 24-48 hours. Russian troops did not launch major ground offensive operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv, on the other hand, conducted a counter-offensive that reportedly penetrated to the Ukrainian-Russian border.

-Russian forces conducted no major offensive operations against the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the past 24 hours

-Russian troops continued to encircle, bomb, and shell Mariupol

-Russian forces east of Kharkiv and in northern Luhansk Oblast appear to be trying to link up

-Russian troops around Kherson city are likely preparing to resume offensive operations against Mykolayiv and ultimately Odesa

-Russian naval infantry in Crimea continue to prepare for amphibious operations, which would most likely occur near Odesa.

-Ukraine’s armed forces claim to have shot down a Russian military helicopter this morning. Its operative command released video of a missile hitting a low-flying helicopter which crashed seconds later.

-The Russian defence ministry has claimed that Russian forces have taken several towns and shot down four Ukrainian SU-27 jets in a wide offensive, reports Reuters, citing Interfax.

 -Russian forces are attempting to shell and encircle the cities of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, with numerous reports of civilian areas being hit. Odesa, Ukraine’s largest port city, is under repeated attack from Russian ships, according to Ukrainian officials

-The Ukrainian military has just released its daily operational report, noting Russian forces continue to focus on Kyiv while moving ahead with assaults on Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and the creation of a land corridor with Crimea. According to the report, published by Ukraine’s general staff of the armed forces at 2am local time, aircraft from airports in Belarusian territory were involved in air strikes on military and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and Zhytomyr. Citing internal intelligence information, the military added that Russian forces intend to seize the Kaniv hydroelectric power plant on the Dnieper River in Kaniv, Ukraine while the regrouping of Russian troops continues. Russian troops continue to “block the city of Mariupol, carry out artillery shelling of civil infrastructure” and Mykolaiv suffered “significant losses” the report reads. Another four Russian helicopters, five planes and one UAV were shot down, the Ukrainian military added.

 -British Defense Intelligence reports "The overall rate of Russian air and artillery strikes observed over the past 24 hours has been lower than in previous days. Ukraine continues to hold the key cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. There have been reports of street fighting in Sumy. It is highly likely that all four cities are encircled by Russian forces". "Russian forces are probably advancing on southern port city of Mykolaiv. There is a realistic possibility that some forces will attempt to circumvent the city to prioritize progression towards Odesa".

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-From New York to Paris and Santiago, Chile, thousands gathered in cities across the world this weekend to protest against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling upon their governments to take more action. Hundreds of people gathered outside the White House in Washington to demand a Nato no-fly zone and military assistance for Ukraine while demonstrators took part in a protest at Place de la Bastille in Paris on Saturday. In Santiago, Chile, an anti-war protest broke out in front of the Russian embassy while a crowd of thousands showed their support for Ukraine in front of the Vancouver Art Gallery.

-Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Saturday that sanctions put on Russia from the West are 'akin to a declaration of war' but also said 'thank God it has not come to that'. Putin also said that any attempt to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine would be seen as the same thing as entering the conflict. "These sanctions that are being imposed are akin to a declaration of war but thank God it has not come to that" Putin stated as he spoke to a group of flight attendants at an Aeroflot training center near Moscow. Putin said that if there is any attempt by another power to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine, Russia would consider it to be a step into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine has requested that NATO impose a no-fly zone over the country but NATO has rejected the request saying that it would escalate the conflict beyond Ukraine's borders and into Europe.

In Putin's warning against any Nato-imposed no-fly zone he said “That very second, we will view them as participants of the military conflict, and it would not matter what members they are,

-Putin Says He Has No Plans To Introduce Martial Law In Russia - Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he has no plans to introduce martial law in Russia, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. RIA Novosti quoted Putin saying "martial law is introduced in case of external aggression, including in specific areas of combat operations, but we have no such situation, and I hope we will not". In another news update, they quoted Putin as saying "There are no plans to impose a special state and state of emergency in Russia". 

-Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, has rounded off an hour-long video call with United States senators in which he called for more support to defend his country from Russia’s invasion. All 100 US senators were invited to the Zoom call, with aides briefing reporters afterwards that Zelenskiy requested the delivery of more planes and drones. James Lankford, a Republican senator, tweeted afterwards that the Ukrainian president also wants “the world to stop buying Russian products (like oil and gas).” Zelenskiy made a “desperate plea” for eastern Europe to provide Russian-made aircraft to Ukraine during a call the call, according to the Senate’s majority leader, Chuck Schumer. “These planes are very much needed. And I will do all I can to help the administration to facilitate their transfer,” Schumer said in a statement, Reuters reported. Republican senators, including Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham, tweeted their support for Zelenskiy and further measures against Russia following the meeting. Rick Scott, another Republican, said the US should target Russia and Belarus by taking “every action to destroy their economies”.

He is also understood to have called for a no-fly zone and a suspension of Visa and Mastercard in Russia. Western leaders have so far rebuffed Zelenskiy’s request to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. But the senators expressed strong support for the country following the meeting.

-Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba just met with US secretary of state Antony Blinken at the Ukraine-Poland border and America’s top diplomat briefly crossed over into Ukraine with his counterpart. The two met for 45 minutes under high security at a border crossing full of refugees fleeing Russia’s invasion, Agence France Press noted. They emerged to speak to the media briefly and make a powerful visual statement standing side by side. They also gave bullish remarks, although Kuleba’s was heavily-qualified, with warnings that his citizens would pay the price if the Nato allies did not impose a no-fly zone to keep Russia’s military out of Ukraine’s skies and if the world tired of imposing sanctions on Vladimir Putin and Russia. Kuleba, has also demanded a new round of sanctions on Russia, reports Reuters.

-Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett’s Moscow meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin reportedly lasted around three hours. Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett traveled to Moscow in secret.

-Although the United States is bracing for retaliatory Russian cyberattacks, experts in the field say the Kremlin is likely still weighing whether destructive action in cyberspace is worth the blowback. Russia has shown cyber restraint, at least for the moment, even as the West imposes sanctions that have quickly strangled its economy and targeted government leaders and oligarchs. “The question is not ‘can Russia carry out cyberattacks against Europe or the United States,’ ” said Melissa Griffith, a senior program associate with the science and technology innovation program at The Wilson Center. “The question is ‘what would Russia have to gain from and what would they risk by carrying out cyberattacks against the United States and Europe.’” Griffith added that intentionally crippling U.S. critical infrastructure through a cyberattack is “risky and unwise” as the U.S. prepares to take countermeasures against Russia, such as imposing further economic sanctions.

-The Ukrainian military has mounted an unexpectedly fierce defense against Russian forces, which have been dogged by logistical problems and flagging morale. But the war is barely two weeks old, and in Washington and European capitals, officials anticipate that the Russian military will reverse its early losses, setting the stage for a long, bloody insurgency. The ways that Western countries would support a Ukrainian resistance are beginning to take shape. Officials have been reluctant to discuss detailed plans, since they're premised on a Russian military victory that, however likely, hasn't happened yet. But as a first step, Ukraine's allies are planning for how to help establish and support a government-in-exile, which could direct guerrilla operations against Russian occupiers, according to several U.S. and European officials. The weapons the United States have provided to Ukraine's military, and that continue to flow into the country, would be crucial to the success of an insurgent movement, officials said. The Biden administration has asked Congress, infused with a rare bipartisan spirit in defense of Ukraine, to take up a $10 billion humanitarian aid and military package that includes funding to replenish the stocks of weapons that have already been sent.

-The US is in discussions with Poland on the possibility of Poland providing more fighter jets to Ukraine with the US potentially agreeing to backfill Poland’s fleet of fighter planes if Warsaw decides to transfer its used MiG-29s to Ukraine, four US officials told POLITICO. As part of the conversations with Poland, the US is determining what “capabilities we could provide to backfill Poland if it decided to transfer planes to Ukraine,” a White House spokesperson said, decline to give any detail surrounding what backfill options are under consideration.

-China is committed to "resolving the Taiwan question in the new era," it said in its annual government report issued Saturday, using sharper wording than in previous such reports amid debate among foreign-policy experts over whether Beijing would attempt a takeover of the self-ruled island similar to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Beijing's annual work report traditionally includes a couple of paragraphs declaring that the government will continue working toward the unification of Taiwan. This is the first year since President Xi Jinping came to power a decade ago that this section of the annual report includes a time frame - "in the new era" - although it's unclear how long a period this means.

-Talks between Tehran and global powers to revive the tattered 2015 nuclear deal - to avoid Iran becoming a nuclear military power - have run into difficulty with a new demand from Russia for written American guarantees that sanctions on Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine would not harm Russian cooperation with Iran. There had been progress at talks in the Austrian capital of Vienna but Russia’s demand is “not constructive”, a senior Iranian official said today.

-The International Monetary Fund has announced it could approve $1.4 billion emergency funding as early as next week as the body warns of war’s ‘severe impact’ on the global economy. The IMF also said it was in talks about funding options with authorities in neighbouring Moldova, reports Reuters. The global lender said in a statement that the war in Ukraine was already driving up energy and grain prices amid a growing refugee crisis and unprecedented sanctions on Russia.

-There are now major disruptions in Ukraine's national telecoms operator Ukrtelecom. The provider reports combat damage impacting service to: Chernihiv, Sumy, Kherson, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Volyn, Khmelnytsia, Lviv, Ternopil according to NetBlocks Internet Observatory monitoring service.

-Elon Musk tweeted early Saturday morning that "some governments (not Ukraine)" have told Starlink "to block Russian news sources." He said, "We will not do so unless at gunpoint." Musk added: "Sorry to be a free speech absolutist." In the 'fog of war,' it's important to hear both sides so one can make an informed decision - even though the other side might be wrong (or lying) -the ability to objectively hear both sides leaves room for debate. Musk also warned that "Starlink is the only non-Russian communications system still working in some parts of Ukraine, so the probability of being targeted is high."

-Russia and Ukraine are to hold a third round of talks on Monday, reports Reuters.

-The UK has said that Russia’s proposed ceasefire in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol was probably an attempt to deflect international condemnation while it reset its forces for another offensive, reports Reuters. Russia said earlier it had opened humanitarian corridors near the besieged cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha and, according to RIA news agency, Russia’s defence ministry accused Ukrainian “nationalists” of preventing civilians from leaving. But Mariupol’s city council said Russia was not observing the ceasefire.

Vladimir Putin has claimed that Ukraine sabotaged the evacuations from Mariupol and Volnovakha after attempts at ensuring safe passage of civilians failed on Saturday, according to the Associated Press. Ukrainian authorities have said Russian forces continued their attacks, preventing civilians from escaping the cities. The Russian president has also claimed Ukraine’s leadership was casting doubt on the future of the country’s statehood, saying that “if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience”.

-The US Department of Defense has established a deconfliction line with its Russian counterparts to prevent accidental escalation near the Ukrainian and Belarusian The PM's office adds Prime Minister Bennett’s meeting with President Putin is taking place in coordination and with the blessing of the US administration

-Finland and Sweden continued high-level discussions on NATO membership and multilateral defense measures.

-Britain has urged UK nationals to consider leaving Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

-Canada told its citizens on today to leave Russia “while commercial means are still available,” saying security conditions were unpredictable and could deteriorate without notice.

-PayPal announces it will no longer offer services in Russia

-US-based credit card giants Visa and Mastercard have both announced they will sanction Russia by suspending their Russian business operations.

- U.S. Based Russian state news channel RT America is now closing its doors, 'ceasing production' at every location and laying off nearly all of its staff members due to 'unforeseen business interruption events'.

-The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will speak to Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Sunday to discuss the war in Ukraine, spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said in a statement reported by Reuters. Kalin said Turkey was ready to help resolve the crisis. Kalin told reporters in Istanbul that Turkey was offering to host talks between Ukraine and Russia and called for an immediate end to fighting. He reiterated that Turkey could not abandon ties with either Moscow or Kyiv.

-Ukraine will be able to import gas from Poland from from 6 March, including gas from Polish LNG terminals, Ukrainian state-run gas transit system operator said in a statement reported by Reuters. The two transit operators agreed on the introduction of guaranteed capacity for gas imports and “this allows the physical import of gas from Poland, including from the LNG terminal, on a guaranteed basis”, the Ukrainian company said.
Ukraine, one of Europe’s biggest gas consumers, has not imported gas from Russia since 2015 and buys it in Europe.

-About 90% of the city of Volnovakha has been damaged by bombing, local MP Dmytro Lubinets said. Dead bodies lie uncollected and people hiding in shelters are running out of food. The town of Volnovakha has been subject to some of the heaviest Russian attacks.

-The number of refugees fleeing the Russian invasion could potentially reach 1.5 million by the end of the weekend, the head of the UN refugee agency has said. The figure is currently above 1.3 million. “This is the fastest moving refugee crisis we have seen in Europe since the end of World War Two,” UNHCR head Filippo Grandi told Reuters in a telephone interview. Grandi also said most refugees at the moment were connecting with friends and family already living in Europe, but warned future waves would be more complex.

Poland has accepted nearly 800,000 Ukrainian refugees since the Russian invasion began on 24 February, according to the country’s deputy minister of internal affairs Pawel Szefernaker. More than 106,000 arrived from Ukraine in the last 24 hours, the highest figure since the invasion. Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said that 140,000 people have crossed into Hungary. Nearly 200,000 have fled to Romania. The government is expected to approve a decree on Saturday to use a buffer fund to finance the costs of housing an average 70,000 people per day for 30 days. Romania is asking for EU help too. Some 20,000 Ukrainians have entered Bulgaria, border police said.

-Brittney Griner, one of America’s most decorated women’s basketball players, has reportedly been detained by Russian Federal Customs Service authorities after the discovery of vape cartridges that contained hashish oil in her luggage at an airport near Moscow.

Propoganda / Unverified

-An [unverified] internal government memo dated March 4th has leaked out of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council saying more than 40% of Ukraine territory is now captured, and more than 75% of Ukraine's military potential has so been destroyed in the conflict.