*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
The current ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment report can be found here.
-The British Ministry of Defence has published its latest intelligence report on the situation in Ukraine today. It says that while Russian forces have moved into the centre of Kherson in the south of the country, overall gains have been “limited” due to ongoing logistical issues and strong Ukrainian resistance. Heavy Russian artillery and airstrikes have continued to hit built-up areas, focused in the cities of Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mariupol and Chernihiv, in the past 24 hours, it says. The update adds that the number of civilians left displaced and forced to flee stands at about 660,000.
-Russia cancelled a bid to send four of its warships through Turkish waters into the Black Sea at Turkey’s request, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, adding the decision was made before Ankara closed the straits. Cavusoglu told broadcaster Haberturk that Turkey had asked Russia not to send its ships through before it labelled Moscow’s invasion a “war” on Sunday, legally allowing it to curb passages under the Montreux Convention. “Russia has said four of its ships would cross the straits on Feb 27-28, three of which are not registered to bases in the Black Sea,” Cavusoglu said. “We told Russia not to send these ships and Russia said the vessels would not cross the straits.”
-Kherson on the Black Sea in southern Ukraine, Russian forces have taken control of the railway station and the port overnight, city mayor Igor Kolykhayev was quoted by local media, Agence France-Press reports.
-At least 21 people have been killed and 112 wounded from shelling in Ukraine’s second most populous city, Kharkiv, the regional governor has said. Overnight, Ukrainian defence positions were “constantly under the influence of enemy fire, aviation, jet artillery, and firearms,” Oleh Sinehubov said
-The southern city of Mariupol is said to be surrounded by the Russians, according to several reports. The UK ministry of defence also said earlier that it believes the city on the Sea of Azov is encircled – along with Kharkiv in the north-east and Kherson.
-Russian troops have reportedly landed in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second most populous city. At approximately 3am local time, Russian airborne troops landed and engaged in heavy fighting with Ukrainian forces. The city, with a population of about 1.5 million, has been encircled for days and saw at least six people killed when the region’s administrative building on Freedom Square was hit with what was believed to be a missile.
-A Russian military strike in the small Ukrainian town of Borodjanka on Tuesday tore through two apartment blocks about 56km (35 miles) northwest of Kyiv, videos on social media and confirmed by multiple news sources show. Borodjanka is the latest civilian area to have come under attack with videos geolocated to the town and their authenticity verified.
-Russia’s military move on Kyiv has stalled as its forces struggle with basic logistics challenges, including shortages of food and fuel, with some units appearing to be gripped by low morale, a senior US defence official said on Tuesday. The official said a miles-long armoured column bearing down on the capital Kyiv had not made any advances in the past 24 hours, frozen in place by logistics problems, short on fuel and food, and perhaps pausing to reassess tactics. There were signs that Russian commanders are abandoning their initial approach in which they relied on lightning strikes into cities they assumed would be half-heartedly defended according to a report by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
-As of March 1st Russian forces are completing the reinforcement and resupply of their troops north and west of Kyiv and launching an envelopment of the capital likely aimed at encircling and ultimately capturing it. This effort will likely accelerate in the next 24-48 hours.
-The Russian President has in recent days sent his family to find cover in Siberia, it has been reported. His destination: a high-tech bunker in the Altai Mountains was designed for protection in the event of nuclear war. Professor Valery Solovey, 61, formerly a professor at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), made the outlandish claim this week.
-A Ukrainian cyber guerrilla warfare group plans to launch digital sabotage attacks against critical Russian infrastructure such as railways and the electricity grid, to strike back at Moscow over its invasion, a hacker team coordinator told Reuters.
-Russian forces are setting conditions to envelop Kyiv from the west and attempting to open up a new axis of attack from the east that would let them encircle the capital. It is unclear if Russia has sufficient combat power to complete such an encirclement and hold it against Ukrainian counter-attacks.
-Russian forces will likely launch a renewed ground offensive to seize Kharkiv following the air/artillery/missile attack it has been conducting in the past 24 hours.
-Russian and Russian proxy forces will likely solidify the “land bridge” linking Rostov-on-Don with Crimea, allowing Russian forces to move more rapidly from Rostov to reinforce efforts further west.
-Russia’s successful seizure of Kherson city may allow Russian forces to resume their interrupted drive toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. Belarusian forces have likely entered the war on Russia’s side despite denials by the Belarusian president.
-The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has spurred Europe’s worst security crisis in decades. But while most analysis is rightly focused on the immediate situation, it is equally important to forecast the war’s multiple possible trajectories and outcomes. Anticipating the uncertainties that this war will bring is a critical step toward successfully navigating its possible consequences. Although the situation in Ukraine is fluid, the scenarios outlined here offer four plausible ways in which the conflict might end.
Scenario 1: Miracle on the Dnipro
Scenario 2: A quagmire
Scenario 3: A new Iron Curtain
Scenario 4: A NATO-Russia war
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank, is leaving the European market as its subsidiaries there face large cash outflows and threats to the safety of employees and property, the bank said on Wednesday. The bank said it was no longer able to supply liquidity to European subsidiaries, but its capital level and asset quality were sufficient to make payments to all depositors.
-Moscow’s stock market will stay closed for the third consecutive day on Wednesday.
-The United Nations has said that at least 136 civilians have been killed in the invasion, although the real number of people is likely much higher.
-More than 450,000 people entered Poland from Ukraine since the Russian invasion began last Thursday, Poland’s deputy interior minister Pawel Szefernaker told private Radio Zet on Wednesday.
-Germany is prepared should Russia stop exporting gas to the country, minister for the economy Robert Habeck has said.
-A Royal Australian Air Force plane left for Europe today carrying military equipment and medical supplies, following prime minister Scott Morrison’s announcement that Australia will provide defensive military assistance to Ukraine.
-Russia president Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to prohibit Russians from leaving the country with more than $10,000 in foreign currency. Citing the decree, TASS news agency reported:
"The export of foreign currency cash and foreign currency instruments over $10,000 calculated based on the official exchange rate set by the Russian Central Bank on the day of export will be banned starting on March 2.”
-The European Parliament, one of the European Union's legislative branches, voted Tuesday in favor of making Ukraine a member of the union. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky filed an application to join the EU just the day before, asking for fast-track admittance due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to Reuters, 637 parliament members voted yes in regard to Ukraine joining the bloc, while 13 voted no and 26 abstained. The vote does not immediately make Ukraine an EU member, but it starts the process.
-The US Department of Transportation and Federal Aviation Administration said orders blocking Russian aircraft and airlines from entering and using all US airspace will be fully in effect by the end of Wednesday.
-US lawmakers across the aisle are pressuring President Biden to halt US imports of Russian oil and gas with Republicans (and moderate Democrat Joe Manchin) pushing for an expansion of domestic production, and Democrats pitching it as a perfect opportunity to accelerate investments into renewable energy.
-Biden announced the US has worked with 30 other countries to release 60 million barrels of oil from reserves around the world.
-Exxon Mobil has also said it will exit Russia oil and gas operations that it has valued at more than $4b and halt new investment as a result of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
-Boeing, one of the world’s largest aerospace manufacturers, has announced it is cutting ties with its Russian partners. The US airplane maker said it would suspend all major operations in Moscow and will no longer provide technical support or maintenance, or parts, for Russian aircraft.
*** PROPOGANDA ***
-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday nearly 6,000 Russians had been killed in the first six days of Moscow’s invasion, and that the Kremlin would not be able to take his country with bombs and air strikes.
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