*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 12th Map of Russian Operations:
Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounting casualties, and sustained Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. Russian forces made limited advances around Chernihiv and toward Kyiv’s eastern outskirts after pausing for several days. Continued Ukrainian counterattacks and successful operations by Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces continue to threaten Russia’s long line of communication in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces captured unspecified “eastern outskirts” of Mariupol on March 12 and continue to shell the city in a likely effort to force it to capitulate.
-Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv for the second day in a row.
-Russian forces resumed limited attacks toward northeastern Kyiv and renewed efforts to fully encircle Chernihiv.
-Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in northeastern Ukraine are likely forcing Russia to redeploy forces away from offensive operations toward Kyiv to consolidate its long line of communication.
-Russian forces made limited territorial gains in eastern Mariupol and continued to shell the city.
-The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian forces conducted a new advance northeast from Kherson along the western bank of the Dnipro.
-The Ukrainian military claimed to have damaged or destroyed 31 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) as of March 11.
-The Kremlin likely seeks to deter continuing Western military aid shipments to Ukraine, threatening that Russia will view Western military aid shipments to Ukraine as legitimate military targets on March 12.
-Russian warplanes are flying about 20 times more missions than their Ukrainian counterparts, though many never enter Ukrainian territory and simply lob long-range missiles from inside Russian airspace, a U.S. official said Friday. Russia's roughly 200 daily Ukraine-connected sorties compare to about five to 10 a day by Ukraine, which is down to about 56 operational warplanes, the official told reporters at the Pentagon. There are several reasons for the conservative use of airpower over Ukraine on both sides, the defense official said. First, Russia has surface-to-air missiles, or SAMs, in enough locations that it can shoot down Ukrainian jets in almost all parts of the country, and Ukrainians have held their jets back. “They are not using their fixed-wing fighter aircraft very much,” the official said of Ukraine. But the Russians are also being cautions, keeping their own aircraft outside of Ukraine and launching long-range missiles from fighter jets and bombers outside of Ukraine’s borders instead.
-Moscow appears to have lost more than 1,000 vehicles and pieces of equipment inside Ukraine, each of which has been documented on an open, verifiable list online, here. More than 400 of those have been captured by Ukrainian forces. That includes more than 180 tanks and more than 100 armored fighting vehicles. Ukraine’s documented losses are very likely much higher than the numbers suggest (293 as of Friday); but the incentive is, of course, much higher for Ukrainians to publicize Russian losses than the other way around.
-Some Russian troops around Kharkiv are reportedly raising a white flag, only to shoot Ukrainian soldiers when they come closer to apprehend the Russians, according to the BBC’s Quentin Sommerville. “They fight like it's 1941,” another Ukrainian told the BBC. “They have no maneuverability, they just come to the front and that's all. They have a lot of people, a lot of tanks, a lot of vehicles, but we are fighting for our land, and we are protecting our families. it doesn't matter how they fight because we fight like lions and they won't win.” But another Ukrainian warned the BBC: “If Kharkiv falls, then all of Ukraine falls.” And Kharkiv could fall soon as Russians continue their effort to encircle the eastern city.
-Russia will have to seek alternative sources to reinforce their “overstretched regular forces”, the UK’s ministry of defence has said in its latest intelligence update.
-According to military officials, an “uncertainty of the military leadership of the Russian federation in matters of strategic objectives” and fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces has hindered Russia’s operational goals. “Measures are being taken to restore combat capability and regroup troops. The enemy is trying to reconnoitre and clarify the positions of the armed forces of Ukraine and possible ways of attack,” the report reads. Officials also warn of a “high probability” of direct participation of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus against Ukraine as well as an increase in operation reserves from the airborne forces. “Military and civilian infrastructure continues to be destroyed,” while Russian forces continue attempts to storm the city of Mariupol.
-Russian airstrikes hit the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre (IPSC) in the Yavoriv district, about 50km south-west of Lviv and about 25km from the border with Poland just before 6am on Sunday. The IPSC is a large military base that includes a training centre for soldiers, predominantly for peacekeeping missions.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-A rocket attack 12km from the Polish border on a military base near Lviv has killed 20 people, emergency workers have told the Guardian. The Guardian’s Luke Harding, who is in Yavoriv where the base is, said that the reported death toll exceeded that announced by the governor of the Lviv region early on Sunday morning. Maksym Kozytskyy had said that nine people had been killed in airstrikes on the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre military base with 57 wounded. Two large explosions were seen on Sunday at the base in Yavoriv, a garrison city just 12km from the Polish border. The rocket attack took place at 5.45am. According to Reuters, earlier on Sunday Kozytskyy said Russia fired 30 rockets at the complex.
-US Vice President Kamala Harris has said that, by fighting Russia, Ukraine is defending the US-led NATO alliance in an apparent gaffe.
-Polish President Andrzej Duda says that transferring MIG29 jets to Ukraine is not possible, and thinks that having a no fly zone could be the start of World War Three. He tells BBC’s Sophie Raworth: “Due to allied responsibility, because of that we can’t transfer [the planes], because we believe our allies could make a grudge against us and it could place NATO in a difficult situation. “Transferring planes, or trying to defend the skies over the Ukraine against Russian combat aircraft, well this is a decision which is a strictly military one and a serious one, because it means that NATO jets will have to be sent into Ukrainian airspace and there would be a confrontation between NATO aircraft and Russian aircraft, and it means the opening of a third world war. Duda said he does fear Russia turning its attentions to a potential invasion of Poland, if it succeeds in Ukraine. He said he believed that NATO allies would defend them if it happened.
Puda says it would be a 'gamechanger' for Nato if Putin uses weapons of mass destruction. He believes Russia could use chemical weapons as Vladimir Putin is in “a very difficult situation”. “Actually, politically, he has already lost his war and internally he is not winning it,” he added. He says that if Putin uses weapons of mass destruction it would be a “gamechanger”. “For sure the North Atlantic alliance [NATO], will have to sit at that table and really have to think seriously about what to do, because then it starts to be dangerous, not only for Europe, or our region, but the whole world.”
-US president Joe Biden has authorized $200m in weapons and other assistance for Ukraine, the White House has said. In a memorandum to the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, Biden directed that the funds be allocated through the Foreign Assistance Act and designated for Ukraine’s defence.
-New satellite imagery of Mariupol is showing the widespread damage suffered since Russian forces surrounded the city 12 days ago. More than 1,500 civilians have been killed, and humanitarian aid groups say those remaining have not had access to water or medications in days. The constant shelling of the city has made it difficult to evacuate civilians and bring in supplies.
-The Russian military has reportedly installed a new mayor in the occupied south-eastern Ukrainian city Melitopol following the alleged abduction of mayor Ivan Fedorov on Friday afternoon. Melitopol’s newly installed mayor is believed to be Galina Danilchenko, a former member of the city council, according to a statement on the Zaporozhye regional administration website, as reported by Ukrainian media, CNN and the BBC. Danilchenko was reportedly introduced as the acting mayor on local TV where she made a televised statement saying her “main task is to take all necessary steps to get the city back to normal.”
-Moldova’s foreign minister Nicu Popescu has said his country is approaching a “breaking point” in its ability to shelter those fleeing the conflict in Ukraine. The number of refugees staying in Moldova is around 100,000 but represents a 4% increase in the national population and would be equivalent in proportion to 2.5 million refugees arriving in the UK in a fortnight, the BBC reports.
-The United States and its allies have intelligence that Russia may be preparing to use chemical weapons against Ukraine, U.S. and European officials said Friday, as Moscow sought to invigorate its faltering military offensive through increasingly brutal assaults across multiple Ukrainian cities. Security officials and diplomats said the intelligence, which they declined to detail, pointed to possible preparations by Russia for deploying chemical munitions, and warned the Kremlin may seek to carry out a “false-flag” attack that attempts to pin the blame on Ukrainians, or perhaps Western governments. The officials, like others quoted in this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the matter. The accusations surfaced as Russia repeated claims that the United States and Ukraine were operating secret biological weapons labs in Eastern Europe - an allegation that the Biden administration dismissed as “total nonsense” and “outright lies.” Any use of poison gases in Ukraine would violate a decades-old international treaty banning such weapons, and represent a dangerous turn in Russia’s two-week-old military offensive against its neighbor. Russia, which possessed vast stocks of chemical and biological weapons during the Cold War, has used outlawed nerve agents in at least two assassination attempts against political foes of President Vladimir Putin in the past three years, including at least once outside its borders, Western intelligence agencies concluded. Because the U.S. and European officials declined to describe the nature of the intelligence pointing to a possible Russian chemical attack in Ukraine, it was impossible to determine how significant it might be. U.S. officials have been warning publicly for days that Russia might carry out a false flag operation, after the Kremlin alleged the United States had supported a bioweapons program in Ukraine.
-Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has said Russia may use chemical weapons following its invasion of Ukraine and that such a move would be a war crime. Reuters reports that Stoltenberg told German newspaper Welt am Sonntag that the Kremlin was inventing false pretexts to justify the possible use of chemical weapons: "In recent days, we have heard absurd claims about chemical and biological weapons laboratories. Now that these false claims have been made, we must remain vigilant because it is possible that Russia itself could plan chemical weapons operations under this fabrication of lies. That would be a war crime.” Stoltenberg added that although the Ukrainian people were resisting the Russian invasion with courage, the coming days are likely to bring even greater hardship.
-U.S. soldiers continued to deploy Friday to Europe, joining thousands already sent overseas to support NATO allies amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. About 130 soldiers from the 87th Division Sustainment Support Battalion, 3rd Division Sustainment Brigade, lined up with rucksacks inside a terminal at Hunter Airfield in Savannah before marching outside and boarding their chartered flight. It departed amid grey skies and rain. Republican U.S. Rep. Earl “Buddy” Carter, of Pooler, Georgia, was among those in attendance. He was seen “fist-bumping” many of the soldiers as they boarded the plane. The battalion’s soldiers are in addition to the estimated 3,800 soldiers from the Army’s 3rd Infantry Division who have deployed in recent weeks from nearby Fort Stewart, said Lt. Col. Lindsey Elder, the division’s spokesperson.
-Setting the stage for a potential major escalation with Western and NATO powers, the Kremlin warned on Saturday that the Russian military is prepared to target Western arms shipments that are continuing to pour into Ukraine. Russia's Deputy FM Sergei Ryabkov said on state TV that Washington had been informed in the last days that Moscow will see weapons supply convoys entering Ukraine as "legitimate targets". "We warned the United States that the orchestrated pumping of weapons from a number of countries is not just a dangerous move, it is a move that turns these convoys into legitimate targets," Ryabkov said in the remarks, which served as a severe warning to the West. He added that Russia has formally warned "about the consequences of the thoughtless transfer to Ukraine of weapons like man-portable air defense systems, anti-tank missile systems and so on." He added that from Moscow's point of view, the US administration has failed to take these warnings seriously. Weeks prior the lead-up to Russia's Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine, the US Embassy in Kiev had tweeted photographs anytime a major arms shipment arrived. The US authorized Baltic allies in the transfer of Javelin anti-tanks missiles to supply Ukrainian forces; at the same time, the UK had sent many rounds of transport plane-loads of munitions and weapons systems. Recent battlefield videos have appeared to confirm that in many instances invading Russian tanks and armored vehicles are being destroyed and disabled by West-supplied Javelin and other anti-armor missiles that are in the hands of Ukraine's military. The Kremlin is blaming the West for these attacks, given they are taking place with NATO-supplied advanced weapons.
-Global stocks of diesel and other middle distillates have fallen to the lowest seasonal level since 2008, when similar shortages of these transport and industrial fuels helped to propel oil prices to a record high. Distillate fuel oil inventories in the United States are 30 million barrels (21%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average and at the lowest level since 2005, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Stocks in Europe are 35 million barrels (8%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average at the lowest level since 2008, Euroilstock, which compiles inventory data on behalf of the European Union, found. Demand for diesel and other middle distillates is highly geared to the economic cycle since they are mainly used in freight transportation, manufacturing, farming, mining and oil and gas extraction. The rapid rebound in economic activity after the first wave of the pandemic and associated lockdowns, and its focus on diesel-intensive manufacturing and freight, has boosted use of the fuel. At the same time, refiners have restrained crude processing to deplete the excess stocks that built up during the coronavirus recession and adapt to lower demand from passenger airlines for jet fuel. But the continued depletion of distillate inventories has become unsustainable. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent boycott of Russian fuel threatens to make diesel shortages worse (“Shell, BP halt spot German diesel sales on scarcity fears”, Reuters, March 10). Actual or potential fuel shortages have been reported in France, Germany, Hungary and Sweden.
-These kinds of Goliath-over-David outcomes are increasingly ones that observers from afar ought to brace themselves for, Elisabeth Braw of the American Enterprise Institute cautioned in an interview Thursday with Defense One. Despite the flood of apparent Ukrainian small victories in the wider information war—the “ghost of Kyiv” pilot and the “Tiger of Kharkiv” feline, e.g.—observers would seemingly be wise to brace for a lot more tragedy and bloodshed inside Ukraine, Braw warned. “We also have to come to the reality that if we spread this misinformation, these fantastical tales,” she said, “they take attention away from the real fight, the real battle on the ground where Ukraine is squaring off against Russia, where it does need to win.”
-The Biden administration intends to nominate Colombia as the United States’ third major non-NATO ally in South America. An announcement of the nomination is planned for Thursday, when President Joe Biden meets at the White House with Colombian President Ivan Duque. The news of the intended nomination was confirmed by a defense official. Colombia’s designation as a major non-NATO ally will come just two months after the Biden administration conferred the same on Qatar in the wake of that country’s extensive help in evacuating Afghans from Kabul.
-Two senior defense officials held a briefing to discuss the work at 46 different Ukrainian laboratories that the U.S. has spent $200 million funding over the past 16 years. Workers at those labs have studied pathogen detection and disease outbreaks since at least 2005, according to a Defense Department fact sheet
-India tested a missile this week that accidentally landed in Pakistan, officials in New Delhi announced Friday—hours after the object drew alarm from officials in nuclear-armed Pakistan. A “technical malfunction” is what led the Indian missile off course, Indian officials said Friday. The object flew at a speed of “40,000 feet and three times the speed of sound” and traveled 77 miles into Pakistani airspace, according to Islamabad. It departed “the northern Indian city of Sirsa [and] crashed in eastern Pakistan, near the city of Mian Channu,” Reuters reports
-Online auction site eBay has said that it is blocking all transactions involving Russian addresses due to “service interruptions by payment vendors and major shipping carriers.”
-Russia’s central bank will continue to keep the Moscow stock market closed to trading next week with the Moscow Exchange to remain closed from March 14 to 18, the central bank announced on Saturday. The foreign exchange market, money market and repo market will remain open on those days, the statement said. A decision on trading next week will be made in the coming days.
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