Since the Western MSM is mostly reporting military assessments from the Ukrainian general staff, I thought it only fair to point out a few things from the Russian perspective.
The Russians are claiming that there are very few organized, intact Ukrainian military forces capable of receiving and using additional weapons sent from NATO. I don't see operational reports of any Ukrainian actions above battalion level, and most are smaller unit actions, company or even platoon level.
There was a feel good report in the Guardian Sunday about a scrappy unit of about 30 Ukrainian special forces and drone operators drawn from the air reconnaissance unit Aerorozvidka that reportedly 'halted the huge Russian convoy headed for Kyiv'.
These sorts of Western media reports are ridiculous on the surface, and here is why. That 40 mile convoy was a huge target that any functional, competent military force would have utterly consumed. Remember what US forces did to that huge unsupported column escaping Kuwait in 1991? But the Russian column sat in place for over a week. There was no significant destruction rained down on the Russian column from the air. There were no Ukrainian cruise missiles used against it. Those should have been launched (if they existed) and could have caused enormous damage. That did not happen. There also was no massed Ukrainian artillery barrages on the supposedly “stalled” column. More than likely while a few Ukrainian special forces units harassed it, Russian logistical problems account for its sluggish movement. So were are the large Tank and Troop formations of the Ukrainian Army? The ones that should have slammed into the Russian column from the west and destroyed it?
This information comes from Friday’s briefing by the Head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy (Colonel General is equivalent to a three star general in the U.S. Army) who is claiming around 30,000 Ukrainian casualties so far and around 60% losses among all Ukrainian combined armored forces.
He said in his briefing:
-Currently, the Ukrainian air forces and the air defense system have been almost completely destroyed. The naval forces of the country ceased to exist.
-Sixteen main military airfields were defeated, from which combat sorties of the AFU aviation were carried out. Thirty nine storage bases and arsenals were destroyed, which contained up to 70% of all stocks of military equipment, materiel and fuel, as well as more than 1 million 54 thousand tons of ammunition.
-All 24 formations of the Land Forces that existed before the start of the operation suffered significant losses. Ukraine has no organized reserves left.
-Losses are replenished at the expense of mobilized persons and personnel of the territorial defence forces who do not have the necessary training, which increases the risk of large losses.
-At the time of the start of the special military operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with the National Guard, numbered 260 thousand 200 servicemen. During the month of hostilities, their losses amounted to about 30 thousand people, including more than 14 thousand – irretrievable and about 16 thousand – sanitary.
-Of the 2,416 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles that were in combat on February 24, 1,587 units were destroyed; 636 units out of 1,509 field artillery guns and mortars; 163 out of 535 MLRS; 112 out of 152 aircraft, 75 out of 149 helicopters; 36 Bayraktar TB2 UAVs – 35; 80 out of 148 S-300 and Buk M1 air defence systems; 300 out of 117 radars for various purposes.
If even only half true, the destruction inflicted on the Ukrainians is egregious. If Ukraine still had a viable air force they would be challenging Russian combat aircraft and carrying out airstrikes on Russian positions. I have seen no reports in Western media about such actions.
In cities, such a Mariupol, that are besieged by Russian forces there has been no visible attempt to provide air support, artillery fire or reinforcements. The AZOV battalion left in an ever shrinking perimeter in Mariupol have no way out and are running out of ammunition and food. I have seen estimates that most of the remaining Ukrainian indirect fire units will begin running out of heavy caliber ammunition in a couple of weeks. Most of those captured Russian tanks that you see on social media being towed away by local farmers are most likely abandoned vehicles due to major mechanical problems are won't be much use to the Ukrainians in the short term, especially if the Ukrainians lack trained crews to man them.
Sky News reported on General Rudskoy’s briefing cited above:
Russia’s defense ministry claimed it would now concentrate on the “liberation” of the Donbas region.
“The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished,” said Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate.
“The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal – the liberation of Donbas.” . . .
Russia has previously pointed to far bigger ambitions but stiff resistance from Ukraine forces, logistical problems and reported low morale may have taken their toll.
Here is what Rudskoy actually said:
With the beginning of a special military operation, air supremacy was won during the first two days.
Offensive actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are carried out in various directions.
As a result, Russian troops blocked Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy and Nikolaev. Kherson and most of the Zaporozhye region are under full control.
The public and individual experts are wondering what we are doing in the area of blocked Ukrainian cities.
These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow not only to shackle their forces and do not give them the opportunity to strengthen their grouping in the Donbass, but also will not allow them to do so until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LPR.
Initially, we did not plan to storm them in order to prevent destruction and minimize losses among personnel and civilians.
And although we do not rule out such a possibility, however, as individual groups complete their tasks, and they are being solved successfully, our forces and means will concentrate on the main thing – the complete liberation of Donbass.
Rudskoy delivered a very pointed warning to NATO as well:
We are closely monitoring the statements of the military and political leadership of individual countries about their intention to supply aircraft and air defense systems to Ukraine. In case of implementation– we will not leave it without attention.
We also hear assurances from NATO leaders about non-interference in the conflict. At the same time, some member states of the North Atlantic Alliance propose to close the airspace over Ukraine. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will immediately respond accordingly to such attempts.
In order to prevent the restoration of weapons and military equipment of the AFU that have received combat damage, the Russian Armed Forces are disabling repair enterprises, arsenals, storage bases, logistics warehouses with high-precision weapons.
At the moment, 30 key enterprises of the military-industrial complex have been hit by cruise missiles X-101, Kalibr, Iskander, and the Kinzhal aviation complex, which carried out repairs of 68% of weapons and equipment disabled during combat operations.
So its hard to make sense of what is happening, but this does not sound like whipped Russians licking their wounds, as the Western media and social media forums like /r/ukraine/ would have us believe.
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