*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 4th Map of Russian Operations:
Russian forces continue their focus on encircling Kyiv. The western envelopment remains bogged down but Russian troops have moved more rapidly from the east and are arriving in the capital’s outskirts on the Sumy axis. The speed of the advance from the east is likely to slow as Russian forces leave sparsely-inhabited and flat terrain and enter the more congested and built-up eastern suburbs. Russian mechanized forces around Kharkiv appear to be supporting operations toward the east and west of the city, likely weakening their ability to encircle or seize it.
The Russian military has concentrated considerable combat power around Mariupol to encircle and ultimately seize or destroy it. The purpose of this effort is not entirely clear. The capture or destruction of Mariupol will not likely materially affect the outcome of the war, whose decisive operations are more than 600 kilometers northwest around Kyiv. Russian forces have also renewed their ground offensive west from Crimea toward Odesa, currently focusing on advancing from Kherson to Mykolayiv, and seized the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant north of Crimea. The continued pursuit of objectives along three diverging axes by the same group of forces in Crimea has hindered the Russian military’s ability to generate decisive effects on any of the three.
-Russian forces have advanced rapidly on the eastern outskirts of Kyiv likely from the Sumy axis and may attempt to encircle and/or attack the capital on the east bank of the Dnipro in the coming 24-48 hours
-Russian troops did not press a ground offensive against Kharkiv in the last 24 hours but have instead diverted forces to the west and southeast, likely supporting efforts against Kyiv and in and around Donbas respectively
-Russian troops have surrounded Mariupol and are attacking it brutally to compel its capitulation or destroy it.
-Military experts are beginning to consider Mariupol a lost cause for the Ukrainians, along with the Volnovakha region. Friday morning, Donetsk forces tightened their grip on the city of Mariupol and took control of the settlements of Vinogradnoye, Sartaka and Vodyanoye. The Russian Army occupied the Mariupol-Dnepropetrovsk highway, closing the last escape route for the Ukrainian forces in that area.
-Russian forces have renewed their ground advance on Mykolayiv, having secured Kherson city, likely to set conditions for a further attack toward Odesa. Russian naval infantry are likely poised to conduct amphibious landings near Odesa when Russian forces have secured or are close to securing a reliable ground route from Crimea to Odesa.
-Russia is "tightening the noose" in Kiev as Russian forces take control of strategic cities in southern Ukraine after days of intense fighting. The Russian Army is now making large circular movements in this area from East and South. It is a matter of hours before thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are trapped.
-The Russian Army recently entered the city of Enherkhodar after heavy fighting and a storm of fire next to the nuclear plant. Russian forces take full control of the area. From there, the Russian Army will head north to Zaporizhia to join the rest of the Russian forces in the Dnepropetrovsk region.
-Mariupol, Ukraine Under Siege, Cut Off From Electricity, Water And Faltering Telecoms - Mariupol, Ukraine is currently under siege. Citizens are reporting there is no electricity, no water and faltering telecoms. NetBlocks real time network data shows a collapse in internet activity.
-In the Donbas region, the Ukrainian Army is fighting to keep the Izyum region close to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. If the Russians can occupy this area, the Ukrainian forces will likely be surrounded here as well.
-The Ukrainian Army announced that the television tower in Kherson is now under the control of Russian forces and warns residents of attempts to spread false news and propaganda. Russian forces have taken advantage of having consolidated control of Kherson city to launch a renewed offensive toward the city of Mykolayiv, which houses the headquarters of the Ukrainian navy.
-Russian naval infantry may be waiting for ground forces to secure Mykolayiv’s bridge before attempting an amphibious landing near Odesa. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that two Russian large amphibious ships were at sea approximately 40 kilometers east of Chornomorsk, a town roughly 24 kilometers south of Odesa’s city center.
-A massive airlift effort by NATO is underway to 'reinforce Europe' according to NATO Allied Air Command. "Strategic and tactical air transport aircraft including C-17s, C-5s, A330 MRTTs and C-130s from multiple nations have been busy moving units from the NATO Response Force along with national contributions to locations across NATO's Eastern Flank". NATO Air Command tweeted "Strategic and tactical air transport aircraft including C-17s, C-5s, A330 MRTTs and C-130s from multiple Allied nations have been busy moving units from the @NATO Response Force along with national contributions to locations across NATO's Eastern Flank". "These moves contribute to around 22,000 Allied land forces which are now under NATO command and control. Many of these forces are already deployed along the eastern flank of the Alliance, including: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Having forces in these eight nations under Supreme Allied Commander Europe's command ensures a robust and integrated shielding of NATO's eastern borders".
-Some 14 wide-bodied aircraft transported Javelin antitank missiles, rocket launchers, guns and ammunition to an airfield near Ukraine’s border on Friday, as the United States and European allies ramped up their efforts to give the Ukrainian military a leg up in battling a foreign enemy that far outguns it. The top U.S. military adviser to President Biden inspected the weapons transfer operation in an unannounced trip, meeting with troops and personnel from 22 countries who were working around the clock to unload the armaments for transport by land to the Ukrainian forces. The shipment of weapons — which also includes Stinger antiaircraft missiles from U.S. military stockpiles, mostly in Germany — represents the largest single authorized transfer of arms from U.S. military warehouses to another country, the Pentagon official said.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Zelenskiy says Nato has given “green light for further bombing of Ukraine" by ruling out no-fly zone. Volodymyr Zelenskiy has critisized Nato for refusing to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine, saying the decision has given “the green light for further bombing of Ukrainian towns. Zelensky will address the US Senate on Saturday during a Zoom call that is scheduled for 9.30am Eastern Time. The call has been requested by Zelenskiy.
-The US is committed to doing everything needed to stop the war in Ukraine, secretary of state Antony Blinken said.
-Senior US military leaders haven’t spoken with their Russian counterparts since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, officials said Friday.
-Ukraine’s membership is not on The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s agenda, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Friday. “I also made it clear in Moscow and in my visit that this option [Ukraine’s membership of NATO] is not on the table and will not take place,” he said during an interview with German public broadcaster ZDF. “I said publicly that we all know that Ukraine’s NATO membership is not on the alliance’s agenda today,” he added. “That was understood by the American president, that [was] also understood by the French president.” cholz said he shares Russian President Vladimir Putin’s security concern and clarified to Putin that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO.
-The Biden administration is looking at options if it were to decide to cut U.S. consumption of Russian energy, White House economic adviser Cecilia Rouse said on Friday, adding that the United States does not import much Russian oil. “What’s really most important is that we maintain (a) steady supply of global energy,” Rouse told reporters at a White House news briefing, adding that the administration was “considering a range of options that we could take right now” if needed.
-Chicago futures for the grain have soared more than 40% -- the most ever -- as Russia’s war in Ukraine upends global grain supplies. That puts prices at a 14-year high, and milling wheat in Paris reached an unprecedented 400 euros ($438 per ton). The war is stalling shipments from one of the world’s most vital breadbaskets. Ukraine and Russia together account for a quarter of global trade of the staple, used in everything from bread to couscous and noodles. The conflict has closed major ports in Ukraine, and severed logistics and transport links. Trade with Russia has also been stifled by the complexity of navigating sanctions and soaring insurance and freight costs.
-According to new AAA fuel data, the current national average gas price is $3.837, up almost 11 cents overnight, the second biggest move on record since the early days of the Iraq war in 2005. At this rate, gas prices could exceed the record in days, which is only 27 cents away. Since last Thursday, the start of Putin’s war in Ukraine, the following ten states have seen the largest increases in their averages, according to AAA: Michigan (+39 cents), Indiana (+36 cents), Illinois (+31 cents), Ohio (+30 cents), Tennessee (+26 cents), Kentucky (+24 cents), South Carolina (+20 cents), Georgia (+21 cents), Delaware (+19 cents), and Alabama (+18 cents).
-Governments around the world are taking steps to safeguard domestic food supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled trade and sent prices of key staples soaring. Hungary is banning grain exports, its agriculture minister told television channel RTL on Friday. Argentina and Turkey also made moves this week to increase their control over local products. And Moldova, albeit a small shipper, temporarily halted exports of wheat, corn and sugar from this month.
-More than 1.2m people have fled Ukraine into neighbouring countries since Russia launched its full-scale invasion on 24 February, according to figures by the United Nations. Around half of a million of those who have fled are youngsters, the UN children’s agency UNICEF estimates.
-The UN human rights office said it had confirmed 331 civilians have been killed and 675 injured in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began on 24 February, adding that the real toll was likely much higher.
-About 100 people could still be trapped under rubble after a missile attack hit a large apartment block in Borodyanka, a small town 60km north-west of Kyiv, Ukraine’s state emergency service said.
-The Ukrainian city of Mariupol has no water, heat or electricity and is running out of food after coming under attack by Russian forces for the past five days, its mayor said in a televised appeal. Vadym Boychenko, mayor of Mariupol, said called for a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians from the south-eastern port city.
-Russia is using cluster bombs in Ukraine, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said. Stoltenberg has warned that the days to come are “likely to be worse” with Russian forces expected to bring in heavier weaponry and continue their attacks across Ukraine.
-Nato foreign ministers agree not to have 'no-fly zone' over Ukraine, says Stoltenberg. Nato foreign ministers discussed a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine but agreed that Nato planes should not operate over Ukrainian airspace, Stoltenberg said. Establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine could result in the war spreading to more European countries, the Nato secretary general. Allies agreed not to have Nato planes operating in Ukrainian airspace or Nato troops on Ukraine’s territory, he said. Stoltenberg stressed that Nato is not seeking a war with Russia. Speaking in Brussels, he said Nato is a “defensive” alliance. “Our core task is to keep our 30 nations safe,” he said.
-The Biden administration’s sanction strategy hinges on levying severe sanctions on pretty much every facet of the Russian economy except energy. But that plan is getting more and more pushback in Washington, even from some members of Biden’s own party. Russia is the world's second-largest producer of natural gas and third-largest producer of crude oil, And while the energy market has begun to impose a sort of 'de facto ban,' the sanctions were designed to try to minimize the impact on global energy prices. “I don't think any American today wants to have a single gallon of Russian gas in their cars,” Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) said in a Yahoo Finance Live interview Wednesday, adding, “We import about 600,000 barrels a day and those barrels are stained with Ukrainian blood.” And in an interview with Politico, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) added that blocking Russian oil is worth it, even as she acknowledged “this is going to hurt.” She says Americans “need to recognize Europe is in the midst of a war with Russia now.” Murkowski is teaming up with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on a forthcoming bill to ban the importing of Russian crude oil and petroleum products into the United States.
-The US Embassy in Ukraine said that attacking a nuclear power plant is a war crime after Russia seized a Ukrainian nuclear facility, the biggest in Europe. “It is a war crime to attack a nuclear power plant. Putin’s shelling of Europe’s largest nuclear plant takes his reign of terror one step further,” US Embassy Kyiv said in its post. Russian forces seized Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant on Friday in heavy fighting in southeastern Ukraine, triggering global alarm, but a huge blaze in a training building has been extinguished and officials said the facility was now safe. No release of radioactive material has been detected after a military projectile hit a nearby building on the site, UN atomic chief Rafael Grossi has said.
The US state department has reportedly urged US embassies in Europe not to share the tweet posted by the US embassy in Kyiv calling the attack on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant by Russia a war crime, CNN reports. The message is an indication that the US government may not be endorsing the war crime allegation made by the embassy, the news channel writes.
-U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham's indirect call for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be assassinated is now drawing ire from lawmakers on both political sides.
-Journalists with Sky News were violently ambushed in Ukraine on Monday as they attempted to return to Kyiv. Harrowing footage published by the outlet on Friday shows an explosion and then a barrage of bullets hitting the team’s vehicle before they flee into a nearby warehouse.
-The European Union wants Ukraine to become a member state “as soon as possible”, commissioner Maros Sefcovic told journalists on Friday after a ministers’ meeting.
-Another yacht belonging to a Russian businessman has been seized, this time in Italy. Italian police have reportedly seized the "Lady M Yacht", a €65 million ($71 million) yacht belonging to Alexey Alexandrovits Mordaschov located in Imperia, in the Italian province of Liguria. The seizure was said to be in compliance with the recent EU sanctions.
-US State Department counselor Derek Chollet warned that there will be serious consequences for Beijing if it helps Moscow in evading sanctions. If China tries to help Russia evade sanctions in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, it will face countermeasures, a senior US State Department official said on Thursday, without providing details. State Department counsellor Derek Chollet said the allied nations that have joined in sanctioning Russia represent a combined 50 per cent of the global economy; China accounts for around 15 per cent. "China, if it were to seek to evade the sanctions, or somehow dividing the sanctions, they would be vulnerable," he said. "Any country that tries to evade these sanctions will also face the consequences of its actions. I don’t want to speculate with what that would be."
Beijing has been pretty clear in its support for Russia, going so far as to denounce the western sanctions as "illegal". "China firmly opposes all illegal unilateral sanctions, and believes that sanctions are never fundamentally effective means to solve problems," Liu Pengyu, spokesman in the Chinese embassy in Washington, said on Thursday.
-The container shipping giant Maersk warned that shipping delays caused by increased customs inspections as a result of Western sanctions might spoil or damage food and medical shipments that are bound for Russia. Maersk announced on Tuesday that it was cutting service to Russia to comply with sanctions but is allowing exemptions for food, medical, and humanitarian goods. But now the Denmark-based company is warning against bookings for the exempted goods due to delays. "We do, however, warn caution on still placing bookings for perishable cargo due to significant delays in key transshipment hubs that may damage the cargo," Maersk said on its website. Maersk said that customs authorities in the EU and UK are inspecting all Russia-bound containers that transit their ports to identify sanctioned and restricted shipments. Because of the increased inspections, Maersk sees a "significant risk to our customers’ perishable cargo." The shipping company said that the sanctions were not only affecting Russia. "This is a global impact, and not only limited to trade with Russia," it said.
-Audi is the latest automaker to disclose that it has been stung by the ongoing global chaos contributing to an already-depleted supply chain. The automaker said that its plant in Gyor, western Hungary, is currently facing shortages due to its "reliance on parts suppliers in war-torn Ukraine," Bloomberg wrote this week. "We’re feeling the supply problems and our procurers are searching for a solution to normalize parts supply,” the company told Hungarian news site Telex. The company's plant in Hungary was responsible for producing 1.62 million engines and 171,015 cars in 2021, according to Bloomberg data. The geopolitical volatility comes just weeks after we reported that one top shipping executive had claimed that the worst supply chain problems have "peaked".
-Microsoft has joined Apple in suspending product sales in Russia.
-Samsung has become the latest company to suspend shipments to Russia, Bloomberg reports.
-The UK has sanctioned far less Russian entities than most other countries:
-Russian Interfax reported that as part of Moscow's countersanctions, Russia has recommended fertilizer makers to halt exports
-Russia reportedly will abolish the VAT (tax) on bullion when purchasing gold bars or other precious metals from a bank. The 20% current tax on top of its value will not apply.
-The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, or FINMA, said Friday that Zurich-based Sberbank AG is “at risk of liquidity problems,” as a result of sanctions imposed by the U.S. and other nations on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
-Over 8,100 anti-war protesters have been arrested by authorities in Russia as protests broke out across Russia regarding the war in Ukraine.
-Following news that Russia will criminalize "disinformation" about military in crackdown on "fake information", not that different from the wholesale "canceling" and deplatforming of any western media outlets that do not parrot the official narrative, moments ago the BBC announced that it would "temporarily suspend the work of all BBC News journalists and their support staff within the Russian Federation" while the news agency assesses the full implications of this development. Canada’s Canadian Broadcasting Corp (CBC) said today that they will be temporarily suspending reporting from Russia.
--CNN will stop broadcasting in Russia. A spokesperson for the news channel said on Friday it would cease broadcasting “while we continue to evaluate the situation and our next steps moving forward,” Reuters reported. Meanwhile, Bloomberg News said it would temporarily suspend the work of its journalists inside Russia.
-Italian police have seized a yacht owned by Alexey Mordashov, once the richest man in Russia before being blacklisted by the European Union, said a source familiar with the matter to Reuters.
-Interfax is reporting that a Russian watchdog says Twitter is now blocked in Russia, adding to the western social media freeze that now includes Facebook and access to app stores. Vladimir Putin signed several laws on Friday - including one which would seize the assets of foreigners if they harm Russians or otherwise infringe on Russian rights. The threat comes in parallel with another law signed on Friday which will criminalize whatever the Kremlin deems "disinformation" about the military in a crackdown on "fake information." As a result, the BBC has pulled all reporters from Moscow.
-Russia's communications regulator also has blocked Facebook, according to Bloomberg. Facebook was banned in retaliation for its freezing of accounts of RT, Sputnik and RIA Novosti and other media, communications regulator Roskomnadzor said in a statement.
-Following a ban on Twitter in Russia, Youtube also appears to be blocked throughout the country.
-Local officials in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson said Friday that Russia is not living up to its side of the bargain on proposed “humanitarian corridors,” even as supplies of food and other necessities begin to dwindle in the region. Leaders from Ukraine and Russia announced Thursday they had agreed to temporary cease-fires to support “humanitarian corridors” for civilians to be evacuated and so food and medicine could be delivered. But local Ukrainian officials in the Kherson region say that the Russian military is not working with them and is instead pushing a plan to distribute its own aid unilaterally.
-British prime minister Boris Johnson said in an interview today that he saw a “close analogy” between Russian president Vladimir Putin and late Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic, who was charged with war crimes, reports Agence France-Presse.
-Poland has arrested a Spanish journalist on suspicion of being a Russian spy who was planning to “go to Ukraine in order to continue his activity,” Internal Security Agency (ABW) said on Friday. The suspect, identified as an “agent of Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU)”, is currently detained in Przemysl - near Poland’s border with Ukraine on Sunday night, ABW said in a statement. The note released by the Police said he was of Russian origin. ABW said the man carried out operations to benefit Russia and travelled in Europe and elsewhere under the cover of being a journalist.
-Thousands of Verizon customers reported problems with their cell service Friday afternoon, as the company acknowledged “intermittent issues” that prevented some people from making or receiving phone calls. A company spokesman said text and data services had not been affected. The company has not released information about the cause of the outages.
*** PROPOGANDA ***
-Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Said Russia Will Continue War On Ukraine Until The End - Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that he believed some foreign leaders were preparing for war against Russia and that Russia will continue its war and military operations on Ukraine until the end, also mentioning bio-labs in Ukraine.
-The Kyiv Independent has posted what they claim are Russian losses. The Kyiv Independent claims that Russia has lost the following: 9,166 troops, 33 planes, 37 helicopters, 251 tanks, 105 artillery pieces, 939 armored personnel carriers, 50 MLRS, 2 boats, 404 cars, 60 fuel tanks, 3 UAV and 18 anti-aircraft warfare. Remember, we likely won't know the real number until the war is over, if ever.
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