*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3 as of 4:00 pm EST
March 3rd Map of Russian Operations:
The Russian military has continued its unsuccessful attempts to encircle Kyiv and capture Kharkiv. The Russians continued to attack piecemeal, committing a few battalion tactical groups at a time rather than concentrating overwhelming force to achieve decisive effects. Russian commanders appear to prefer opening up new lines of advance for regiment-sized operations but have been unable to achieve meaningful synergies between efforts along different axes toward the same objectives. They have also continued conducting operations in southern Ukraine along three diverging axes rather than concentrating on one or attempting mutually supporting efforts. These failures of basic operational art—long a strong suit of the Soviet military and heavily studied at Russian military academies—remain inexplicable as does the Russian military’s failure to gain air superiority or at least to ground the Ukrainian Air Force. The Russian conventional military continues to underperform badly, although it may still wear down and defeat the conventional Ukrainian military by sheer force of numbers and brutality. Initial indications that Russia is mobilizing reinforcements from as far away as the Pacific Ocean are concerning in this respect. Those indications also suggest, however, that the Russian General Staff has concluded that the forces it initially concentrated for the invasion of Ukraine will be insufficient to achieve Moscow’s military objectives.
Operations to envelop Kyiv remain Russia’s main effort. Russian troops are also continuing three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. The Russian attack on Kyiv likely consists of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and a supporting effort along the axes from Chernihiv and Sumy to encircle it from the east. Russian forces in the south resumed offensive operations toward Mykolayiv on March 3 after securing Kherson on March 2, but do not appear to pose an imminent danger to Odesa. Russian forces likely seek to force Mariupol to capitulate by destroying critical civilian infrastructure and killing civilians to create a humanitarian catastrophe—an approach Russian forces have repeatedly taken in Syria.
-Russia has not achieved air superiority over Ukraine as of March 3. The Ukrainian Air Force continues operating a week after the invasion began, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting that Ukrainian Su-24s and Su-25s conducted airstrikes in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv oblasts in the last 24 hours
-Russian forces committed reserve elements of the 205th Motor Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army towards both Mariupol and Zaporizhya on March 3. Russian forces will likely struggle to fully resource three simultaneous lines of effort from Crimea – Mikoayiv, Zaporizhya, and Mariupol. Russian forces have not made territorial advances towards Zaporizhya since March 1.
-Russian forces opened a new line of advance from Belarus south toward Zhytomyr Oblast, west of Kyiv, as Russian forces attempting to encircle Kyiv from the northwest were driven further west by determined Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks. Russian forces will struggle to complete an encirclement of Kyiv at all if they have to advance along ring roads as far from the city center as those they are now using.
-Russian forces on the east bank of the Dnipro River remain unable to secure the important town of Chernihiv or to break through Ukrainian defenses in the northeastern outskirts of Kyiv.
-Russian ground forces have remained relatively static near Kharkiv as Russian artillery, air, and missile bombardments wreak devastation in the city. The Ukrainian military indicates that a regiment-sized Russian formation will try to envelop or bypass Kharkiv in the coming days. Similar Russian attempts at such operations elsewhere in Ukraine render the success of such an undertaking at that scale unlikely.
-Russian forces are attempting once again to open a line of advance through northern Luhansk Oblast, possibly to assist efforts at Kharkiv or, as the Ukrainian General Staff assesses, to drive on Dnipro and Zaprozhya. The Russian forces currently reported as engaging in that drive are far too small to attack either city successfully and are probably insufficient to sustain a long drive on their own.
-Russian troops have surrounded Mariupol and are attacking it brutally to compel its capitulation or destroy it.
-The mayor of Kherson conditionally surrendered to the Russians, allowing Russian forces to renew their advance on Mykolayiv, which they have done. The Ukrainian military nevertheless reportedly defeated an attempted Russian air assault to take an airfield near Mykolayiv.
-The Pentagon has established communication with the Russian ministry of defense, “for the purpose of preventing miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation”, a defense official told the AP. That such a “deconfliction” line has been established has not been officially announced yet, but multiple news organizations have confirmed the news.
-Russian forces fully encircled Mariupol and are conducting a deliberate campaign to destroy critical civilian infrastructure and residential areas in a likely attempt to force the city to surrender.
-The UK’s defence secretary Ben Wallace has told the BBC that Russia’s military strategy is not going to plan. Wallace said logistics recovered from armoured vehicles show the Russian army is behind schedule - and that plans to appeal to Ukrainians as “liberators” have failed. President Putin on the other hand has insisted Russia’s invasion is “going to plan” in a televised address on Thursday.
-Concern is mounting over the movements of a huge column of Russian military vehicles outside Kyiv. While a US defence official suggested it appeared to have “stalled”, there was also speculation that an estimated 15,000 troops attached to it may be regrouping and waiting for logistical supplies before an assault on Kyiv.
-Another key objective for Russian forces in the south-east was Zaporizhzhia and its nuclear power plant, Europe’s biggest. Russian troops were trying to break through a barricade to the plant erected by residents and territorial defence forces.
-Russian Major General Andrei Sukhovitsky was killed in Ukraine by sniper fire on Thursday ahead of the second round of Russia-Ukraine talks, NEXTA reported. The death of Major General Andrei Sukhovitsky was the death of Russia’s first high-ranking military officer.
-Ukraine Navy's Flagship Appears To Have Been Scuttled. An image of the ship, the Hetman Sahaidachny, sitting half-submerged on its side appeared on social media on March 3rd, 2022. The vessel may have been sunk on purpose in order to keep it from falling into the enemy's hands.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Drone footage of warzone in Borodyanka, about 30 miles from the center of Kyiv.
-Video from Chernihiv.
-Gunfire, shelling outside Europe's largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhya, Ukraine
-Video from Enerhodar, which seems to confirm Russian shelling hit the
barricades made by local residents to block access to the city
-Special
forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs of Ukraine fight Russian BMP's in Gostomel.
-Russian soldiers are threatening to destroy Ukrainian cities unless they surrender. The mayor of Mariupol, on the Black Sea, said that Mr Putin’s army was attacking rail lines and road bridges, as well as cutting off water and electricity, to prevent civilians from escaping the shelling.
-A fire broke out in Europe’s largest nuclear power plant located in Zaporizhzhya, according to an announcement from the mayor of the nearby town of Enerhodar. “As a result of continuous enemy shelling of buildings and units of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is on fire,” Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov said on his Telegram channel, citing what he called a threat to world security. He did not give details, Reuters reports. Orlov recorded a short video message which has now been shared my multiple local Ukrainian media outlets, urging Russian troops to immediately stop shelling the plant. Orlov earlier said Ukrainian forces were battling Russian troops on the city’s outskirts. and reported that a Russian military column was heading toward the nuclear plant. Loud shots and rocket fire were heard late Thursday.
The Ukrainian State Emergency Service is reporting that radiation and fire safety conditions at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant are “within normal limits”. Andrey Tuz, spokesman for the plant, has said shelling has stopped for the time being, but the situation is extremely uncertain.
-On Thursday the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, issued a series of bombshell statements which may reveal Moscow's broader aims in the war concerning how Russia's sees its ultimate security aims. Naryshkin said that "for us this is no longer a Cold War with the West but a hot war," according to Interfax. He said in the rare statement that "Russia now has a real chance to put an end to the war that has been waged in the Post-Soviet space for the past 30 years" - as also quoted in TASS.
-Vladimir Putin has told Emmanuel Macron that Kyiv’s “refusal to accept Russia’s conditions” means he will continue to pursue his war in Ukraine, the Élysée Palace has said, adding: “We expect the worst is yet to come.” In a televised speech shortly after his 90-minute call with Macron, Putin claimed Russian military operations in Ukraine were going according to plan. The president went on to accuse Ukrainian forces of using civilians as “human shields”. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has called for direct talks with the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, saying it was “the only way to stop this war”
-France announced it impounded the superyacht belonging to Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin. The move comes as part of continued EU sanctions against Russia, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire disclosed this week. The yacht is called the Amore Vero (true love), and it was "confiscated overnight in the Mediterranean port of La Ciotat," Bloomberg reported on Thursday morning. The report says that the port is located near Marseille, on the French Cote d'Azur.
-A Chinese bank claims it has seen a surge in requests from Russian firms trying to open new bank accounts, according to an anonymous source quoted by Reuters.
-The Swedish armed forces announced that four Russian jets have violated Swedish airspace over the Baltic Sea. Two Russian SU-27 jets and two Russian SU-24 jets were involved in the violation. The Swedish defense minister has called the violation 'unacceptable'.
-Americans will see gas prices to rise to $5 in the coming weeks, as the cost of oil continues to rise in the days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, experts say. The US national average soared to $3.72 per gallon Thursday, with cities like San Francisco seeing an average of $5.05 a gallon and Los Angeles at $5.01. In states with more costly fuel, such as California and Hawaii, motorists are already are paying nearly $4.50 a gallon, AAA data show.
-The White House on Wednesday formally asked Congress to vote on $10 billion in humanitarian, economic and security aid for Ukraine and Central European allies in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to The Hill. "Given the rapidly evolving situation in Ukraine, I anticipate that additional needs may arise over time," wrote Office of Management and Budget acting director Shalinda Young in a Thursday letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, adding that she also anticipates "additional funding will be needed to support the covid-19 response" as well. Originally, the Biden administration asked for $6.4 billion for Ukraine in order to boost programs at the State Department and Pentagon in response to the crisis. The figure quickly ballooned to $10 billion (or roughly the cost of one border wall) so the US can help train Ukraine's military, provide food and humanitarian aid, and boost cybersecurity defenses, among other things.
-Ukraine’s parliament has approved a bill to allow the seizure of assets or property in Ukraine owned by Russia or Russian citizens due to the invasion of Ukraine. Under the law, the government can suggest which assets to confiscate to the security council, which must then give its approval for their transfer to state ownership, Reuters reported.
-Poland warned its citizens to leave Russia and Belarus due to ongoing fighting in Ukraine
-Chinese Warships Spotted Off Taiwan For Third Time In Four Days - On March 2nd, Chinese warships were spotted in waters off Orchid Island, Taiwan for the third time now in four days. Three Chinese Navy warships were spotted about 50 nautical miles off the southeast coast of Orchid Island on Wednesday, after which they were spotted entering the Bashi Channel. Before that, on Tuesday a Chinese missile frigate had appeared 50 nautical miles off Orchid Island heading south. Previous to that, on Monday three Chinese Navy warships were spotted 35 nautical miles off the coast of Orchid Island, making it the closest the Chinese vessels had come to the island during the four day period that they were spotted. Taiwan's Navy stated that when Chinese warships enter the waters surrounding Taiwan the armed forces joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems are able to monitor and assess them the entire time.
-The head of Russia's space agency has stated that Russia will be treating any hacking of its satellites as justification for war, after an alleged hack of their systems was claimed by a 'non-state' hacker group.
-Germany on Thursday confirmed that it's ramping up military aid to Ukraine, after days ago reversing its long-standing policy of neutrality which banned any country from shipping German arms into conflict zones. Now after one week of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Berlin is sending an additional 2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to Kiev. It comes after an initial arms shipment already arrived, upon the request of the Ukrainian government. Given that also on Thursday the White House confirmed that it's sharing "real-time intelligence" with Ukraine's military - all of this suggests the NATO allies are slowly getting involved in more directly amid Ukraine's efforts to defend its territory.
-Russia's State Space Corporation Roscosmos halted deliveries of rocket engines to the US following a series of devastating financial sanctions by the US, according to Russian state-owned news agency TASS. United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, uses Russian RD-180 engines to power Atlas V launch vehicle's main propulsion systems. Northrop Grumman Corp. also uses Russian engines on its Antares rocket to lift a spacecraft packed with cargo to the International Space Station (ISS). Days ago, Rogozin threatened the ISS partnership, which has been intact for two decades. He said if Russia abandons the 500-ton space station, it will tumble out of low Earth orbit in an "uncontrolled de-orbit." Meanwhile, billionaire Elon Musk tweeted that if the Russians pull out of the ISS, his company, SpaceX, would save the station.
-EU officials in Brussels have said they believe the Ukrainian figures in relation to the deaths of Russian soldiers are accurate, Daniel Boffey writes. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said on Thursday morning that 9,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in the fighting since the invasion started on 24 February. On Wednesday, Moscow said that 498 Russian troops had been killed in Ukraine and 1,597 others wounded as it announced its own death toll for the first time.
-Antony Blinken will travel to Europe for consultations in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, the US Department of State announced on Wednesday. During his six-day trip from March 3 to 8, the US Secretary of State will visit Belgium, Poland, Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
-French President Emmanuel Macron told Russia’s Vladimir Putin he was making a “major mistake” in Ukraine, that he was deluding himself about the government in Kyiv and that the war would cost Russia dearly over the long term, a French official said. In the phone call initiated by Putin on Thursday, the Russian leader reiterated his determination to obtain the neutralisation and disarmament of Ukraine, whether diplomatically or by arms, the official told Reuters.
-More than 500 international students are trapped in Sumy, a town 40km from Ukraine’s northeast border that has been battered by days of shelling by Russian forces. Most of the students are Nigerian, while others are from Ghana, Ethiopia, Angola, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ireland, India, Lebanon and Turkey. They have all suddenly found themselves stranded in a war zone. Trains and buses have stopped running; roads and bridges out of the city have been destroyed and fighting has been reported in the city’s streets.
-Japan’s flag carrier, Japan Airlines Co. Ltd. (JAL), along with another major airline in the country, belonging to ANA Holdings Inc, have canceled all flights to and from Europe, citing safety concerns amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
-A power outage left thousands of people without electricity in Taiwan on Thursday morning, with authorities blaming the grid malfunction on a sudden system failure at Hsinta Power Plant. Taiwan Power Co. confirmed that the blackout was caused by “equipment failure” at the island’s second largest coal-fired power plant located in the port city of Kaohsiung. According to Nikkei Asia, Taiwan's 'most important' iPhone processor production hub in Tainan, southern Taiwan was also affected.
-Netblocks Confirms Internet Network Connectivity was down Across Much Of Taiwan today - The Netblocks Internet Observatory monitoring service has confirmed that an outage has knocked out internet connectivity across much of Taiwan, including Taipei with national connectivity falling to 68% of ordinary levels. They have labeled the incident as 'ongoing'. Netblocks stated "Confirmed: A power outage has knocked out internet connectivity across much of #Taiwan including Taipei; real-time network data show national connectivity falling to 68% of ordinary levels from ~9 a.m. local time; incident ongoing".
-China Announces Military Exercises In The South China Sea Across Six Nautical Mile Radius - China has reportedly announced 'military exercises' in the South China Sea across a six nautical mile radius from Sunday to Tuesday.
-Seoul has secured exemptions from US sanctions on exports to Russia for some South Korean products, the government said on Thursday. But it still expects the national economy to be hit hard due to trade disruptions stemming from the war in Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions. The US agreed to allow South Korea to sell some goods to Russia, including smartphones, cars and washers, Seoul’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said on Thursday. Washington will allow the exports as long as it is certain that the products don’t have military applications
-The Biden administration will allow Ukrainians in the US Temporary Protected Status, a designation that will them to continue living and working in the country for 18 months. Department of Homeland Security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced the news on Thursday. Some 75,000 Ukrainians in the US will be eligible to apply. The move comes after immigrant advocates pushed for the US to quickly accommodate Ukranians already in the US as Russian began bombarding their home country. But the US has yet to extend similar protections for tens of thousands of Afghans in US prior to and following the chaotic evacuation last summer.
--Steel Bunkers, Iodine Pills, and Canned Food: Fear of the Nuclear Apocalypse Is Back
*** PROPOGANDA ***
-The head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, has stated that the SVR had obtained intelligence showing that Ukraine was working on building its own nuclear weapons. Naryshkin stressed that President Volodymyr Zelensky's threats to abandon the Budapest Agreement were "not an empty promise".
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