*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 18th Map of Russian Operations:
Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack around Mykolayiv in the past several days, and Russian forces continued to secure territorial gains only around Mariupol on March 18. Russian forces face growing morale and supply problems, including growing reports of self-mutilation among Russian troops to avoid deployment to Ukraine and shortages of key guided munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report on March 18 that Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine, including destroying the Ukrainian Armed Forces, capturing Kyiv, and establishing control over Ukraine to the east bank of the Dnipro River—the first time the Ukrainian General Staff included this territorial conquest as an explicit Russian objective. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Ukrainian forces “continue step by step to liberate the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine in all directions” on March 18, the first Ukrainian mention of conducting counterattacks “in all directions.”
The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russia has “significantly exhausted its human resources” due to battle casualties, cases of self-mutilation to avoid deployment, and psychological factors. The General Staff stated Russia is having to take “extreme matters in matters of staffing,” including deploying, conscripts, cadets, and mercenaries from Syria. Ukrainian intelligence reported approximately 130 personnel of the 20th Motor Rifle Division (of the 8th Combined Arms Army) refused to deploy to Ukraine and participate in combat operations at an unspecified time. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported the Kremlin plans to remove Colonel Vadym Pankov, commander of the 45th Special Brigade due to his ”failure to perform a combat mission at Hostomel airfield”—possibly referring to Russia’s failed airborne landing at Hostomel in the first 72 hours of the war. This is the first confirmed dismissal of a Russian general for their performance in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 17 that Russia has already recruited 1,000 personnel from Syria, with the main requirement to have experience in urban combat. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported the Kremlin shifted Russia’s military-industrial complex involved in producing Kalibr and MLRS “Tornado” ammunition to “around-the-clock" production due to the “consumption of almost all missile ammunition” as of March 18
Russian forces are escalating repressive measures in areas of occupied Ukraine in response to mounting Ukrainian attacks behind Russian lines. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are attempting to establish a “strict administrative and police regime” in several areas while also attempting to “create a positive image” by distributing food to the civilian population. The General Staff additionally stated Russian forces are actively searching for and detaining “pro-Ukrainian activists, civil servants, members of the [Ukrainian military] and members of their families, as well as other citizens who may organize resistance to the occupation.”
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) announced the creation of an official website for the “Center for National Resistance” on March 18. The GUR said the center will “support and coordinate all those who want to fight for the liberation of Ukraine from the Russian invaders” and will be run by Ukrainian Special Operations forces. The website includes guidance on urban warfare and other information for Ukrainian fighters and civilians in occupied territory. The head of President Zelensky’s office, Oleksiy Arestovych, additionally called on civilians to destroy railways in the occupied territories to stage a “rail war” on March 17
-The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia has “significantly exhausted its human resources” due to battle casualties, cases of self-mutilation to avoid deployment, and psychological factors.
-Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces around Mykolayiv in the past several days.
-The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term.
-Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest or northeast of Kyiv on March 18.
-Russian forces continue to make steady progress reducing the Mariupol pocket.
-Ukrainian forces halted a Russian attempt to advance southeast of Kharkiv, through the city of Izyum, in the past 24 hours. Russia is deploying additional reserves to reinforce the Kharkiv axis of advance.
-Russian and proxy forces made minor territorial gains north of the city of Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast and will likely assault the city itself in the next 24-48 hours.
-Ukrainian military intelligence created an official website to provide support and guidance to Ukrainian fighters and civilians in Russian-occupied territory.
-Fighting has reached the centre of the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol, where 350,000 civilians have been stranded with little food or water. The Russian defence ministry said its forces were “tightening the noose” around the city, and that “fighting against nationalists” was taking place in the city centre. Mariupol’s mayor, Vadym Boichenko, appeared to confirm the claim.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
- "China has plans to invade Taiwan as soon as next fall, reported Al Jazeera in a tweet citing Newsweek on a Russian intelligence document. Traders are treating the report with skepticism," FXStreet is noting of the latest reporting on a purported Russian intelligence whistleblower document. "Many geopolitical analysts had viewed recent geopolitical events regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine as likely to dissuade China from mounting an assault on Taiwan in the near term (i.e. the strong Western response, Russia's difficulties in achieving its military goals amid unexpectedly spirited resistance)," it comments. Within the past days Newsweek reported the alleged Russian intel document which indicated China's Xi Jinping had set in motion planning that would result in a PLA army move to annex the island this next fall. The document is attributed to an "anonymous analyst with Russia's Federal Security Service" (FSB), according to Newsweek, and says the plan is likely delayed due to Ukraine developments and collective Western mobilization against it, including far-reaching US and EU-led sanctions. The document suggested Xi believes the "window of opportunity" has passed for the time being.
"Because of the war, Russia has such a negative image for a number of countries that the United States can easily push sanctions against China, at least with the Europeans, if it risks circumventing the sanctions on Russia," the letter read. "China depends on exports so much that, coupled with its dependence on commodity prices…this would be almost a fatal blow." The whistleblower continued: "Not only that: Xi Jinping was at least tentatively considering the capture of Taiwan in the autumn—he needs his own small victory in order to be re-elected for a third term—there is a colossal power struggle among the [party] elite. Now, after the events in Ukraine, this window of opportunity has shut, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with his [political] rivals on favorable terms."
The 'intelligence letter' was dated March 9, and Newsweek in the report says it can't verify the authenticity of the document, which is being widely pushed by well-known anti-Moscow "open source" investigators like Bellingcat.
-A Washington Post report is giving readers a glimpse into the efforts under way to get much-needed military equipment to Ukrainian soldiers. The article was set at a military base where Ukrainian forces received convoys with everything from dozens of vehicles to night-vision gear and surveillance drones. Ukrainian factories have been impacted by shelling, which has led the country’s forces to rely on “pop-up supply chains like for vital gear, including body armor, medical supplies and the pickup trucks and SUVs they covet as fighting vehicles”, the article states.
-President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The conversation focused on Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. President Biden outlined the views of the United States and our Allies and partners on this crisis. President Biden detailed our efforts to prevent and then respond to the invasion, including by imposing costs on Russia. He described the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia as it conducts brutal attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilians. The President underscored his support for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. The two leaders also agreed on the importance of maintaining open lines of communication, to manage the competition between our two countries. The President reiterated that U.S. policy on Taiwan has not changed, and emphasized that the United States continues to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo. The two leaders tasked their teams to follow up on today’s conversation in the critical period ahead.
-The mounting death toll in Ukraine has forced President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider concessions to Russia in order to bring an end to the devastating conflict, but the specific elements of any peace deal his government may be discussing with Moscow remain a mystery to Western leaders, said U.S. and European officials. The secretive rounds of meetings between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators could hold the key to ending the conflict but also carry broader implications for European security depending on how the warring parties settle their differences. If Russian President Vladimir Putin can use military force to compel political change in Ukraine, he could use the same tactic elsewhere, U.S. and European officials fear. The prospects of a near-term deal look bleak, diplomats say, but mixed signals from Zelensky about how close he is to striking an agreement have only heightened anxiety about the trajectory of the negotiations.
-Vladimir Putin will edge closer to deploying a nuclear attack if Ukraine continues its valiant pushback against the invasion of Russian troops, a top US defense official warned. Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency detailed the grim concerns in a new 67-page summary of global threats on Thursday. It raises the specter of a possible nuclear attack on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital which has so-far resisted Russian advances, and said a desperate Putin posed a threat to the whole world.
-Missiles hit Lviv aircraft repair plant, mayor says. According to the city’s mayor, Andriy Sadovy, several missiles hit an aircraft repair plant, destroying a building. The plant had been stopped and there were no casualties from the strike, he said in an update posted to his Telegram account this morning. At least three blasts were heard shortly after 6am with air raid sirens sounding across the city.
-Chinese aircraft carrier sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Friday, according to Reuters sources; Shandong carrier which was shadowed by a US destroyer. The timing of the Shandong's movements, being so close to the US-China President's call, was described as provocative by the source.
-U.S. assesses that Russia still has approximately 90 percent of combat power arrayed on Ukraine's border "still available" 3 weeks after invasion: senior U.S. defense official.
-Syrian President Bashar Assad was in the United Arab Emirates on Friday, his office said, marking his first visit to an Arab country since Syria’s civil war erupted in 2011. In a statement posted on its social media pages, the office says that Assad met with Sheikh Mohamed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice president and prime minister of the UAE and the ruler of Dubai. The two discussed expanding bilateral relations between their countries, it said. The visit sends the clearest signal yet that the Arab world is willing to re-engage with Syria’s once widely shunned president.
-Vladimir Putin appeared at a huge flag-waving rally at a packed Moscow stadium Friday and lavished praise on his troops fighting in Ukraine, three weeks into the invasion that has led to heavier-than-expected Russian losses on the battlefield and increasingly authoritarian rule at home.
-As Russia faces staunch and seemingly unexpected resistance on the ground in Ukraine, analysts have warned that President Vladimir Putin may be considering his next target. Moldova, a landlocked Eastern European country situated on Ukraine’s western border, is at risk, given its similarities with its neighbor. Like Ukraine, the former Soviet republic is not part of the European Union, nor is it a member of NATO — though it has ambitions to be both. It is also home to a sizeable pro-Russian separatist population based in the breakaway state of Transnistria. “They would be very weak. There would be little to no resistance,” said Clinton Watts, a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, of Moldova’s resistance. The country — one of Europe’s poorest on a GDP per capita basis — has much less military capability than Ukraine. An invasion of Moldova could therefore open a back door into southwest Ukraine, said Watts, noting that Putin may be looking for an alternate game plan given Russia’s as-yet failed efforts to encircle the capital Kyiv.
-GPS interferences have intensified in places as far away as Finland, the Mediterranean and Iraq since Russia invaded Ukraine, forcing aircraft to reroute or change destination, according to European aviation authorities. Disruptions to Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), which include GPS, are caused by the "jamming" or "spoofing" of satellite signals. Since the war erupted on February 24, "jamming and/or possible spoofing has intensified in geographical areas surrounding the conflict zone and other areas," the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) said in an online bulletin Thursday. The EASA said the issue was observed in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, the Baltics, eastern Finland, the Black Sea, the eastern Mediterranean and northern Iraq.
-Add eggs to the growing list of food prices rising at grocery stores. The reason is a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) spreading across the US. Bloomberg reports HPAI has been detected in commercial poultry operations, backyard farms, and wild flocks up and down the East Coast and across the Midwest since Jan. 26. The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has monitored the spread rippling through the US. Standard procedures for farms where HPAI has been detected are cull infected flocks. Last week, APHIS said 2.8 million chickens and turkeys died in one month from the virus. At least one million birds were recently culled at a poultry farm in Iowa. Karyn Rispoli, a poultry market analyst at commodity researcher Urner Barry, warns egg prices are beginning to rise due to lost production. She said peak demand for eggs is underway as Easter fast approaches, pushing prices even higher.
-Samantha Power, who leads the US Agency for International Development (USAid), has said Ukraine and Moldova have successfully synchronised with the European electric grid, stabilising power supplies. Ukraine & Moldova have successfully synchronized w/ the European electric grid. This move will improve the stability of electric power to critical facilities amidst continuing war. @USAID supported this effort for years; grateful that Europe agreed to accelerate this process. The development was announced by the European Commission earlier this week, which said the work would keep “homes warm and lights on during these dark times.”
-Belgium on Friday delayed by a decade a plan to scrap nuclear energy in 2025, spooked by the huge rise in energy prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reports AFP.
-A US military aircraft with four people on board has crashed in northern Norway, reports Reuters. The MV-22B Osprey aircraft belonging to the US Marine Corps was taking part in a NATO military exercise called Cold Response when it was reported missing at 1826 CET (1726 GMT), according to Norway’s Joint Rescue Coordination Centres (JRCC).
-Ukraine’s interior minster told Associated Press that it will take years to find and defuse all of the unexploded ordnances from the country. Denys Monastyrsky said: “A huge number of shells and mines have been fired at Ukraine and a large part haven’t exploded, they remain under the rubble and pose a real threat. It will take years, not months, to defuse them.”
-A World Food Programme (WFP) official said on Friday that food supply chains in Ukraine were collapsing, with a portion of infrastructure destroyed and many grocery stores and warehouses now empty. Jakob Kern, WFP emergency coordinator for the Ukraine crisis, also expressed concern about the situation in “encircled cities” such as Mariupol, saying supplies were running out and its convoys had not yet been able to enter the city.
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