*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21st as of 3:00 pm EST
March 21st Maps of Russian Operations:
The Ukrainian General Staff continued to warn on March 20-21 that Russia seeks to bring Belarus into the war. The Ukrainian General Staff reported at midnight local time on March 20 that “there is a high probability” of Russian provocations against Belarus to bring Belarus into the war in Ukraine and create a new axis of advance into western Ukraine. Belarus evacuated its embassy in Kyiv to Moldova on March 19 in response to what it claimed were “unbearable working conditions.” The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) also reported on March 21 that it detained a Belarusian spy who was examining Ukrainian deployments and equipment in Volyn Oblast. Belarusian social media users additionally observed Belarusian military equipment in Rechista (in the Brest region), 7km from the Ukrainian border, on March 21. The Kremlin likely seeks to bring Belarus into the war in Ukraine to reinforce Russian forces, but Belarusian President Lukashenko likely continues to resist Russian pressure. A new Russian or Belarusian axis of advance into Western Ukraine would be unlikely to succeed. Russian and Belarusian forces would face staunch Ukrainian resistance and similar, if not greater, morale and logistics issues to Russian forces elsewhere.
The Ukrainian General Staff stated for the first time on March 21 that Russia is deploying unspecified support units to “direct combat operations” and said that Russia continues to deploy reserves from the Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD). The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) provided further details on conscription measures in the DNR and LNR on March 21. They reported that Russian authorities are increasing the conscription age from 55 to 65 and aggressively recruiting 18-year-old students. The GUR reported conscripts in DNR/LNR forces are supplied with military equipment from the 1970s. Local social media imagery depicted new conscripts equipped with the Mosin-Nagant bolt action rifle—which has not been produced since 1973 and was first produced in 1891.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 21 that Russian forces in Ukraine are in “dire need of repairing and rebuilding damaged weapons and military equipment,” and stated a lack of foreign-made components is slowing production in key Russian military industries. The Ukrainian General Staff also said that Russia is decreasing its use of manned aircraft and replacing them with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), likely due to continuing losses and wear and tear on both airframes and pilots.
-Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest of Kyiv and further reinforced their defensive positions.
-Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine and have been unable to solve logistics issues.
-Russian forces continued to make slow but steady progress and shell civilian infrastructure in Mariupol.
-Russian and proxy forces conducted several unsuccessful assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the past 24 hours.
-Russia continues to deploy low-quality reserves, including combat-support elements and low-readiness units from the Eastern Military District, to replace losses in frontline units.
-The Ukranian General Staff warned that Russia seeks to conduct a provocation to bring Belarus into the war, but a Belarusian offensive into western Ukraine remains unlikely to occur or succeed if it did.
-Authorities in Odesa have accused Russian forces of carrying out a strike on residential buildings in the outskirts of the city early on Monday, the first such attack on the Black Sea port.
-Missiles struck military training grounds in north-western city of Rivne.
-British military intelligence suggests Russia is likely to continue prioritizing encircling Kyiv in the coming weeks amid heavy fighting north of the city.
-UK Ministry of Defence said Russian forces advancing from Crimea are still attempting to circumvent Mykolaiv as they look to drive west towards Odessa and that these forces made little progress during the past week, while it added that Russian naval forces continue to blockade the Ukrainian coast and to launch missile strikes on targets across Ukraine.
-Luhansk separatists say they have recorded an increase in the intensity of Ukrainian shelling on their areas, especially the Pervomaysk region, according to Al Jazeera
-US officials see signals the Kremlin is shifting to a new strategy to secure key territorial objectives, according to WSJ.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Russian accusations that Kyiv has biological and chemical weapons are false and illustrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is considering using them himself in his war against Ukraine, US President Joe Biden said on Monday, without citing evidence.
-President Joe Biden on Monday warned of potential Russian cyberattacks against the U.S. — making his most prominent alert yet about what he called new intelligence concerning the Putin regime’s plans. “I have previously warned about the potential that Russia could conduct malicious cyber activity against the United States, including as a response to the unprecedented economic costs we’ve imposed on Russia alongside our allies and partners. It’s part of Russia’s playbook,” Biden said in a statement on Monday. “Today, my Administration is reiterating those warnings based on evolving intelligence that the Russian Government is exploring options for potential cyberattacks.” Anne Neuberger, the deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, warned that the Russian government was eyeing U.S. critical infrastructure but did not cite any specific plans for attacks. She described Biden’s warning on Monday as “a call to action and a call to responsibility” to guard against attacks.
-Footage shared by Russia today shows a TOS-1A weapon system firing a salvo of rockets towards the city of Mariupol. Russia's destructive thermobaric weapons which are capable of exploding a victim's lungs have been reportedly used in Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Earlier this month the UK Ministry of Defence confirmed that the TOS-1A weapon system has been deployed.
-Russia launched more than 300 fighter jet and bomber sorties over the last 24 hours in an escalation of its air war, the Pentagon said Monday, as Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues an indiscriminate aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. “We believe that they've committed more than 60% of their fixed-wing and rotary-wing capability,” into the air war over Ukraine, a senior defense official briefing Pentagon reporters said Monday. “So they have put a lot into this fight.” Over the last several days, Pentagon officials say Russia has begun to rely on more “dumb bombs” rather than precision-guided munitions, which they say might be occurring because Russia may be running low on precision-guided weapons. Russia has launched more than 1,100 missiles of all types into Ukraine since the invasion began. “We have seen air activity from both sides increase,” the U.S. defense official said, but Russia has still not been able to establish air superiority over Ukraine in 26 days of the war. “We've also seen them suffer failures of some of their precision-guided munitions where they're just not operating. They're not falling either. They're failing to launch, or they're failing to hit the target, or they're failing to explode on contact,” the senior defense official said. Russia so far has not shown signs of moving to resupply its stock of precision-guided munitions. The official said the U.S. believes Russia still has “a significant majority” of its ballistic missiles on hand, and more than half of their air-launched cruise missile capability available.
-German and Dutch troops are in Slovakia operating Patriot anti-missile systems, Reuters reported Sunday from Prague. The Patriots are in Slovakia not to replace the host country’s Soviet-made S-300 air defense system as part of a scheme to grant Kyiv defensive weapons; but rather the German and Dutch troops are reinforcing the Slovaks as part of a new NATO battlegroup there.
-The U.S. is offering a reward of up to $5 million to help locate Russian oligarchs’ yachts, mansions, private jets and more. The Treasury Department announced the rewards as part of its “Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Rewards Program.”
-The UK is preparing to temporarily nationalize Gazprom’s British retail supply arm, Bloomberg reported on Monday. The measure is taken to ensure distressed companies continue energy supplies to customers amid losses due to higher energy costs. Gazprom Marketing & Trading Retail Ltd is a prime candidate to be taken into the UK’s special administration regime, Bloomberg has cited a person familiar with the matter, adding that no one at the Gazprom unit was available to comment.
-COVID cases are on the rise again in New York City as the BA.2 variant grows more prevalent, though the numbers are still a tiny fraction of the peaks seen earlier this year. As of Monday morning, the city's latest data had the rolling seven-day average of new cases at 610, up nearly 10% in a week. Transmission rates are on the rise as well. In Manhattan, the rate of new cases per 100,000 people is up almost 10% in the last month and up about 17% in just the last week. One out of every 1,000 Manhattan residents has been infected in the last seven days.
-Some 4.5 million residents of China’s northeastern city of Jilin will have to follow a stay-at-home order starting Monday night as China announces a three-day lockdown to curb the spread of the virus, amid the country's largest Covid-19 outbreak in two years. On Sunday, China recorded over four thousand new Covid cases, the highest number since the outbreak of the pandemic two years ago. Two-thirds of the recorded deaths occurred in China’s Jilin province, which borders Russia and North Korea
-Shanghai, China's financial center, reported a record surge in daily COVID infections on Monday despite the CCP's best efforts to contain the ongoing COVID outbreak, which is the worst outbreak in China since the virus first emerged in Wuhan more than two years ago.
-Monday afternoon Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced more visa restrictions on Chinese officials related to prior charges that state authorities are overseeing the ethnic cleansing of Uighurs. It's certainly interesting timing in terms of pulling out the the human rights card, given that throughout last week the admin's China criticisms seemed exclusively focused on its "fence-sitting" over Ukraine. Blinken called on China to "end its ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang, repressive policies in Tibet, crackdown on fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong, and human rights violations," as cited in Bloomberg. It's unclear as yet which and how many Chinese state officials will be impacted by the new visa restriction measures, which will effectively ban them from travel into the United States, and it's an expansion of prior Trump restrictions
-The U.S. is sending some of the Soviet-made air defense equipment it secretly acquired decades ago to bolster the Ukrainian military as it seeks to fend off Russian air and missile attacks, U.S. officials said," WSJ writes. "The systems, which one U.S. official said include the SA-8, are decades old and were obtained by the U.S. so it could examine the technology used by the Russian military and which Moscow has exported around the world. The Pentagon has not yet officially confirmed the breaking story, but it comes as the administration is facing immense bipartisan pressure from Congress to "do something" more than merely sending smaller arms. It must be remembered that Moscow has clearly warned it will attack as "legitimate targets" any inbound weapons shipments to Ukraine from Western backers.
The WSJ report says that S-300 systems are not part of what's being considered for the shipment, and details further: The secretive efforts received public attention in 1994 when a massive Soviet-made transport plane was observed at the Huntsville airport within sight of a major highway. Some of the Soviet-style weapons have been kept at the Redstone Arsenal in Alabama, which its website notes serves as “the Army’s center for missile and rocket programs.” At least some of what the U.S. sent was from that base, said officials, who added that C-17s recently flew to a nearby airfield at Huntsville, Alabama. The Russians will surely see this as an escalation, likely resulting in threats that such shipments of any anti-air defenses will be directly targeted.
-US and Turkey are said to be in talks over a deal for Turkey to send its Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems to Ukraine in exchange for the scrapping of sanctions imposed by Washington, according to Reuters citing sources. The report suggested Turkey is unlikely to agree to such a deal
-A key U.S. security official dropped by Kosovo last week, which is where the U.S. has sent Afghan evacuees who have not yet passed security screenings. Assistant to the President for Homeland Security Liz Sherwood-Randall led the team as they met with Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu and Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Sherwood-Randall’s delegation also visited U.S. military facilities at Camp Liya and Camp Bondsteel, the latter of which is known to host hundreds of Afghans.
-Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked Saudi Arabia on Sunday using drones and missiles that targeted Saudi water treatment facilities as well as oil and natural gas infrastructure. At least one of the strikes hit the Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company, whose CEO said the attack triggered “a temporary reduction in the refinery’s production.” Another hit a gas plant on the Red Sea port city of Yanbu, a desalination plant also on the Red Sea coast, and an oil facility in the southern city of Jizan. “The attacks on Sunday came as Saudi Arabia’s state-backed Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, announced its profits surged 124% in 2021 to $110 billion, a jump fueled by renewed anxieties about global supply shortages and soaring oil prices,” the Associated Press reported Sunday from Dubai.
-Saudi Arabia declared on Monday that it “won’t bear any responsibility” for surging oil prices or contracting supply following a series of attacks on a refinery and other energy facilities by Houthi rebels a day earlier. In a statement acknowledging that the attacks could have “serious consequences” for energy markets already reeling from the conflict in Ukraine, the kingdom called on the international community to oppose the Houthis for the sake of safeguarding the world’s oil supply.
-Spanish state-owned rail operator Renfe confirmed that an Alstom software malfunction had disrupted services around Madrid on Monday, as well as on a number of medium- and long-distance routes. The main area impacted was the Chamartin signaling system, according to a press release from the company, causing issues with the “control, command and signaling subsystems.”
-FedSpeak dominated the market action today in stocks and bonds with a very hawkish and tone consistently narrated by first Raphael Bostic, then Tom Barkin...
*BOSTIC SAYS HE'S NOT WEDDED TO ONLY MOVE RATES IN 25 BPS STEPS
*BOSTIC SAYS FED SHOULD GET MOVING `QUICKLY’ ON BALANCE SHEET
*BARKIN: CAN MOVE AT 50 BP CLIP AGAIN TO TAME INFLATION
*BARKIN: WE COULD MOVE FASTER, BUT ALREADY IMPACTING BOND MARKET
Powell's remarks and Q&A confirmed he was open to 50bps hikes "we may well conclude that we need to move more quickly" and that The Fed is a long way from an equilibrium balance sheet (suggesting more aggressive QT). 2Y Yields soared back above 2.00% to their highest since May 2019. Today was the second biggest yield jump for 2Y yields since June 2009. S&P rallied up to its 200DMA and fell back. The Dow fell back below its 50DMA as did Nasdaq while Small Caps managed to hold above the 50DMA.
Oil prices soared Monday, with (May) WTI back above $110, on fears of EU sanctions on Russian oil (as India buys more) and anxiety caused by Saudis raising threat of escalating Houthi attacks on energy infrastructure. For the second week in a row, investors trimmed bullish petroleum positions amid elevated volatility, with prices oscillating between the twin threats posed by sanctions-driven supply disruptions and a demand-destroying recession.
-America’s rapidly growing bird flu pandemic is going to deeply affect all of us at the grocery store. This pandemic began on February 8th when a confirmed case of HPAI was confirmed in a domestic flock, and since nearly 2.8 million birds (mostly chickens and turkeys) had died. The pandemic has escalated dramatically here in the second month. If cases continue to spread like wildfire, we will soon be facing a nightmare of absolutely epic proportions. On Friday it was announced that an outbreak of bird flu at an egg-laying farm in Iowa is going to result in the culling of over 5 million chicken. This pandemic originally erupted in states on the east coast, but now it is really raging in the middle of the nation. Now we are potentially facing very real shortages of both chicken and turkey in the months ahead, and prices could easily go to levels that we have never seen before.
-Belarus may soon attack Ukraine and is preparing to potentially let Russia position nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil, a senior Nato intelligence official warned. The official said the conflict in Ukraine was on the verge of entering a stalemate, with Ukrainian forces preventing Russia from making progress but the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, showing no willingness to back down.
-Ukraine rejected out of hand an ultimatum from Moscow for people in the devastated city of Mariupol to surrender before 5am on Monday. “There can be no question of any surrender, laying down of arms” in the stricken Black Sea port, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, said.
-Almost 10,000 Russian soldiers may have already been killed in the war in Ukraine since Russia invaded almost four weeks ago, and more than 16,000 wounded according to reports of previously-undisclosed figures from the defence ministry in Moscow revealed in a pro-Kremlin tabloid newspaper. A pro-Kremlin tabloid said 9,861 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine and 16,153 were injured, the Wall Street Journal has reported.
-The US has said it cannot independently confirm or refute a Russian claim over the weekend that it fired hypersonic missiles at a Ukrainian target, but the use of such a weapon makes little sense from a military perspective. A senior US defence official said: It could be that they’re trying to send a message to the west. There’s just not a lot of practicality about it.” Reuters reports: Russia said on Saturday it had used hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles to destroy a large weapons depot in Ukraine’s western Ivano-Frankivsk region.
-Germany has added to calls from western countries for Opec to increase oil production and avoid profiteering from global sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
-"There can be no talk of any surrenders, laying down of arms. We have already informed the Russian side about this," Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said after the Russian deadline for surrender came and went Monday morning. "Instead of wasting time on eight pages of letters, just open a [humanitarian] corridor," she added, speaking of the proposed terms of surrender. Intense bombardment has resumed in Mariupol, with a number of reports noting that Monday saw the heaviest attacks since the start of the Russian invasion nearly a month ago. As of Sunday night, Russia's military was repeating, "A terrible humanitarian catastrophe has developed. All who lay down their arms are guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol." The Ukraine national government's firm rejection of "talk of any surrenders" appears a clear message aimed more broadly at other cities and areas under Russian siege as well, in a sign of what's to come.
-Russia's foreign ministry summoned the US ambassador to issue a note of protest over Biden's latest comments, handing over a letter condemning the "unacceptable" remarks about Putin. Further US ambassador John J. Sullivan was informed that US-Russia ties are "on the verge of being severed" according to Reuters. Obviously they are already strained following both the invasion and US-led retaliatory sanctions and measures to severely isolate Russia, but a total severing of relations would likely see embassies shuttered and diplomats expelled. Russian state media is also confirming it was in reaction to the prior "war criminal" and other statements about Putin: "The Russian Foreign Ministry handed a note of protest to the US ambassador on Monday over Joe Biden's comments about Vladimir Putin - remarks that, according to Moscow, put the relations between the Kremlin and the White House on the verge of being severed," according to Russian sources.
-The Czech prime minister, Petr Fiala, has said that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is committing “war crimes” in Ukraine, and called for tougher sanctions to stop him.
-The White House considered giving Americans gas cards to help offset high prices, but faced strong opposition from congressional committees, which questioned the plan's viability and effectiveness. The Biden administration is feeling political pressure from high energy costs, made worse by Western sanctions against Russia, and Democrats desperately want to offer some kind of policy response.
-Bloomberg reports that cheap Russian Urals crude is finding willing buyers in India, with Urals Crude trading at a stunning $30 discount to Brent. "Russia is offering oil and other commodities at a heavy discount. We will be happy to take that," one of the Indian government officials said. The official added that such trade required preparatory work including transportation, insurance cover and getting the right blend of crude, but once that was done India would take Russia up on its offer. Hindustan Petroleum Corp. recently bought 2 million barrels of the grade for delivery in June, and other processors are also seeking cargoes, according to people familiar with the matter. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. are looking to buy Urals crude for delivery in May and June, the people familiar with the plans said.
-Bloomberg reports Australia's top alumina refineries choked off flows of alumina to Russia's United Co. Rusal International PJSC, the world's second-largest aluminum company by production output. Rusal has a 20% stake in Rio Tinto Group's Queensland Alumina Ltd refinery. Rio is working out options regarding its partnership with Rusal.
-Ukraine’s armed forces said Russian troops used stun grenades and gunfire to disperse a rally of anti-occupation protesters in the southern city of Kherson, Reuters reports. As we reported earlier, video footage shared on social media today appears to show civilians in Kherson’s Freedom Square running to escape as projectiles land around them. Loud bangs and what sounds like gunfire can also be heard.
-The decision to ban Facebook and Instagram by a Moscow court on grounds that parent company Meta Platforms is an “extremist organisation” will not apply to WhatsApp messenger service. On Monday, Moscow’s Tverskoi district court upheld a lawsuit filed by Russian state prosecutors on banning the activities of Meta on Russian territory, the court’s press service said in a statement.
-The owner of a war-zone mobile hospital in eastern Ukraine has instructed his doctors to “castrate captured Russian soldiers”. It comes as Ukraine said it would not accept ultimatums from Russia after Moscow demanded it stop defending besieged Mariupol. Gennadiy Druzenko, 49, told Ukraine-24 channel about Russian military prisoners of war: “I have always been a great humanist and said that if a man is wounded, he is no longer an enemy but a patient. “But now [I gave] very strict orders to castrate all [captured Russian] men, because they are cockroaches, not people.” He is set to be added to the Kremlin's most wanted list.
-A 19-year-old soldier with the elite Coldstream Guard has been arrested by British military police after he returned from Ukraine, The Sun tabloid reported Sunday, citing military sources. The soldier went AWOL some two weeks ago to join Ukraine’s so-called International Legion of Territorial Defense, which brings together foreign fighters wishing to engage Russian troops. According to the tabloid, the soldier had been “bored” with the ceremonial role of his regiment and wanted to see some real action as his promised tour to Afghanistan hadn’t happened, apparently due to the hasty withdrawal of the Western coalition forces from that country last year. The soldier opted to return to Britain after his superiors and fellow British fighters managed to persuade him that the longer he stays AWOL the worse the potential repercussions would get for him, the newspaper reported. Three other active-duty soldiers of the Guard are reported to have gone alongside him to Ukraine are still believed to remain in the country.
-A number of Apple services, including iCloud, the iTunes store, Apple TV+ and Apple Maps, were experiencing outages on Monday. According to Apple's online service dashboard, a wide swath of consumer-facing services were impacted. In addition, Apple said some device enrollment and AppleCare services were experiencing outages. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said that some corporate and retail store operations were also affected.
No comments:
Post a Comment