*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24th as of 6:30 pm EST
March 24th Maps of Russian Operations:
Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, entering the city center on March 24, but conducted few offensive operations elsewhere in the country. Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Kyiv in the past several days continue to relieve pressure on the city, and Russian forces continued to dig in. Ukrainian forces repelled limited Russian attacks northeast of the city and around Kharkiv.
The Ukrainian government and military directly stated for the first time on March 24 that the Kremlin believes its invasion of Ukraine has entered a second, “protracted” phase. The head of Zelensky’s office, Myhailo Podolyak, stated that Russia seeks to turn the war into a partially “protracted phase” due to high losses in personnel and equipment and the lack of significant progress in any direction. Podolyak stated the Kremlin is changing its tactics and going on the defensive to reduce Russian casualties “to an acceptable (from a propaganda point of view) level.” The Ukrainian General Staff similarly stated that the Russian military leadership is "beginning to realize that the available forces and means are not enough to maintain the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and are conducting defensive operations.” ISW previously assessed on March 19 that Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of the war and that Russian forces would likely go over to the defense.
The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 24 that the Kremlin is prioritizing restoring combat capabilities in VDV (airborne) units. The General Staff reported Russian commanders are increasingly deploying reserve officers, conscripts, and obsolete armored vehicles to replace losses.
-Russian forces entered central Mariupol on March 24 and continued to take ground across the city. Local Ukrainian authorities left the city in order to better coordinate regional operations amid the deteriorating situation in Mariupol itself.
-Ukrainian forces conducted a successful attack on Russian ships docked at the occupied port of Berdyansk, likely sinking a landing ship and damaging or sinking another. Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to inflict serious damage on Berdyansk may disrupt Russian forces from renewing attempts to reinforce operations in Mariupol and around Kherson by sea.
-Ukrainian forces did not retake any territory in continuing counterattacks northwest of Kyiv but forced Russian troops onto the defensive.
-Ukrainian forces repelled renewed Russian attempts to advance toward Brovary from the northeast and complete the encirclement of Chernihiv.
-Russian forces continue to shell Kharkiv and struck a humanitarian aid delivery point, killing six and wounding 15.
-Russian forces secured several minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the last 24 hours.
-Ukrainian forces have been bolstered by the dramatic destruction of a major Russian landing ship as it brought in supplies to its troops. Dramatic pictures showed bellowing fire and black smoke as the Orsk, docked in Berdyansk on the Azov Sea, was hit by Ukrainian ballistic missiles.
-Ukraine’s emergency services are reporting an oil depot in the village of Kalinovka in north-west Ukraine was hit by Russian shelling and caught fire overnight.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Top Russian military officials have repeatedly declined calls with US military leaders since the attack on Ukraine started on February 24, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday, raising fears of a miscalculation between the two nuclear powers. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley have tried to set up calls with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov. But Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement that the Russian officials "have so far declined to engage." The US and Russian militaries have set up a deconfliction line meant to avoid miscalculations, but it is operated by lower-level officials. US officials told the Post that higher-level contacts are needed.
The lack of high-level contact comes as the US and NATO are building up forces in Eastern Europe, stepping up flights in the region, and are pouring weapons into Ukraine via the Polish border. In a message to the Western powers, Russia recently launched a missile strike on a Ukrainian base housing foreign arms and volunteers only 15 miles from the Polish border. While the Pentagon has been attempting high-level talks with Russia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the US’s top diplomat, has not. US officials told the Post that since Russia’s invasion began, Blinken hasn’t even tried to speak with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. The US hasn’t shown an interest in pushing for a diplomatic solution in the conflict and is instead pledging more weapons for the Ukrainians and preparing more sanctions on Russia.
-The Chinese Ministry of Defense has called the US “a liar and troublemaker” and said that “everyone knows” which country was “the biggest initiator” of the Ukraine crisis. Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian on Thursday commented on accusations from unnamed US officials that Beijing knew in advance about Russia’s attack on Ukraine and that China had even asked Moscow to delay it until after the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Wu condemned the claims, along with reports about China allegedly offering military assistance to Russia, saying there was “absolute disinformation” which only serves the purposes of “shifting blame to and slinging mud at China.” The accusations show “the true face of the US as a liar and trouble maker,” he said, adding that his country firmly opposes attempts by the US to spread “false and malicious information targeting China on the Ukraine issue.”
-Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff, on Thursday said there was progress in the ceasefire negotiations with Russia and expressed “cautious optimism” about the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough to end the war.
-Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev said it is “foolish” to believe that western sanctions against Russian businesses could have any effect on the Moscow government. The sanctions will only consolidate the Russian society and not cause popular discontent with the authorities, Medvedev told Russia’s RIA news agency in an interview.
-US president Joe Biden will travel to a town near the Polish-Ukrainian border on Friday, in an attempt to signal Western resolve. He is expected to meet with experts on the humanitarian response and US troops stationed in Poland. On Saturday, he is to meet Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda to discuss “the humanitarian and human rights crisis” resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
-The UK’s ministry of defence said Ukrainian forces have reoccupied towns and defensive positions up to 35 kilometres east of Kyiv. In an earlier report, the ministry said Ukraine is striking “high value targets” that is forcing Russian forces to divert resources to defend their supply lines. It cited the attacks on a landing ship and ammunition storage depots at Berdyansk as examples of valuable targets. “It is likely that the Ukrainians will continue to target logistical assets in Russian-held areas. This will force the Russian military to prioritise the defence of their supply chain” and reduce ability to carry out offensive operations.
-These accounts appear to be corroborated by a senior Pentagon official who said Russia is running out of precision guided munitions and it is more likely to rely on so-called dumb bombs and artillery. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said Russia is suffering high failure rates as high as 60% for some of its precision-guided missiles while its forces have taken heavy casualties and are low on supplies.
-Users of a Reddit community ‘r/volunteersForUkraine’ may have unknowingly helped the Russian forces in locating a Ukrainian mercenary base in the northern Zhytomyr Region. The base, which was situated near the town of Ovruch, was hit by Russian high-precision missiles on Sunday with over a hundred Ukrainian special ops troops and foreign soldiers of fortune confirmed ‘eliminated’ in the strike, according to RT. On Friday, March 18, a video titled ‘Goosebumps… Glory to Ukraine!‘ was shared on the subreddit (community). The post, which has now been deleted by the community moderators, featured a soldier playing violin, with other troops recording him on their mobile phones. Photos of the shelling site shared across the internet indicate that it’s the same base that was seen in the video that was shared on Reddit and then on other social media platforms. While a direct link between the Reddit post and the Russian shellings has not been established yet, this is not the first time such an incident has taken place. There have been at least two different shellings where content related to the affected zone(s) were shared on Reddit, 9gag, and Twitter. On Reddit, all such posts have now been taken down by the community moderators.
-Earlier this week some of the world's biggest independent energy traders, who spoke at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland unveiled a dire forecast for the diesel market: "The thing that everybody’s concerned about will be diesel supplies. Europe imports about half of its diesel from Russia and about half of its diesel from the Middle East,” said Russell Hardy, chief of Switzerland-based oil trader Vitol. “That systemic shortfall of diesel is there.” As a reminder, Russian supplies account for about 15% of Europe’s diesel consumption, according to the FT which carried their comments. Hardy said the shift to more diesel consumption over gasoline in Europe had helped to create shortages of the fuel. He added that refineries could boost their diesel output in response to higher prices at the expense of other oil-derived products to shore up supply, but warned that rationing was a possibility. Meanwhile, Torbjorn Tornqvist, co-founder and chair of Geneva-headquartered Gunvor Group said that "Europe is short of diesel" but added that "Diesel is not just a European problem; this is a global problem. It really is."
-Joe Biden while attending the emergency NATO summit in Brussels which addressed the Ukraine crisis upon the invasion reaching its one-month mark, announced a fresh sanctions package targeting Russian oligarchs, hundreds of lawmakers, as well as defense companies. It's part of what's been described in Brussels as "severe costs" and consequences which Russia will suffer for "many years to come". It also comes as the US is pushing the G7 and EU to agree to a plan in the works for greatly reducing European energy dependence on Russia. As Bloomberg details of Biden's new measures, a whopping more than 400 individuals and entities in Russia will be impacted, including "the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, and 328 of its members, more than a dozen Russian elites and 48 Russian defense companies."
-The WaPo reported that the Biden administration and European Union are expected to announce a major initiative to direct shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe during the US president’s visit to Brussels this week. The announcement would come as European officials have asked the US to do more to help them cut their dependence on Russian energy sources. The announcement, part of a "dramatic effort" to deprive Russia of leverage as it continues to batter Ukraine, would mark an unusual move to reorder the world’s energy flow — a shift that could have an impact long after the war is over. It comes as European officials have asked the United States to do more to help them cut their reliance on Russia for oil and natural gas.
-As President Biden struggles to convince America's European allies to bite the bullet and agree to tougher sanctions on Russian energy during his trip to Brussels (where he is participating in meetings with NATO, the G-7 and the EU), Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer offered the latest example of why this this will likely be a futile effort on Biden's part, as uniting Europe in opposition to Russia simply isn't feasible given its dependence on Russian oil and gas. Speaking Thursday, Nehammer denied reports in the Austrian press claiming his government was in talks to agree to an embargo on Russian energy. The reality couldn't be further from the truth he said, adding that talk of a Russian energy boycott is "unrealistic and wrong". "It doesn't work. Austria gets 80% of its gas from Russia." What's more, rumors of a boycott are harmful in and of themselves, because they serve to drive energy prices higher.
Speaking later in the day ahead of a meeting of EU leaders, Nehammer reiterated that Austria was opposed to a boycott of Russian energy. And Austria isn't alone, as Nehammer explained that many of his European neighbors, including the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria are equally dependent on Russian energy supplies, making a boycott "unrealistic." Even as some of those same nations prepare to host larger numbers of NATO troops, Russia could unleash serious economic damage simply by restricting energy supplies.
-The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, appealed to Nato allies to increase military support for his country against Russian forces. Speaking to leaders via video link, Zelenskiy thanked countries for the defensive equipment provided to Ukraine but appealed for offensive weapons.
-The UK and allies will “ramp up” lethal aid to Ukraine, Boris Johnson said following a meeting of G7 leaders. The UK will send an additional 6,000 missiles and provide £25m in funding for Ukraine’s armed forces, he said, with kit provided “in the quantity and with the quality” needed by Ukraine to defend itself against “its bullying neighbour”.
-Biden said China understands the economic consequences that would ensue if it provides help to Russia in its war with Ukraine. Speaking to reporters in Brussels, the US president said the Nato alliance has never been more united than it is today.
-Bloomberg reports that China’s oil refiners are "discreetly" purchasing cheap Russian crude as the nation’s supply continues to seep into the market.
-President Joe Biden said Thursday that if Russia were to use chemical weapons in Ukraine it "would trigger a response" from NATO.
-Pope Francis levelled strong criticism against countries for increasing defence spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, describing it as “madness”. Francis said the conflict in Ukraine was a product of “the old logic of power that still dominates so-called geopolitics” and the real answer was not more weapons and more sanctions.
-Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, has warned that a Polish proposal to deploy a western peacekeeping force in Ukraine could trigger “World War III”. Lukashenko, who has allowed Russia to use Belarus’ territory to send troops into Ukraine, said on Thursday that should Poland’s suggestion be taken up “it will mean World War III.” “The situation is very serious and very tense,” Lukashenko said, according to an Associated Press report.
-The German chancellor Olaf Scholz has rebuffed Vladimir Putin’s demand that “unfriendly countries” pay for Russian gas in rubles. In a press conference Scholz said most gas deals with Russia had stipulations that money be paid in dollars or Euros. On Wednesday Putin said he had “decided to implement a series of measures to switch payments [...] for our natural gas supplies to so-called unfriendly countries into Russian rubles”. Scholz suggested this was unlikely to happen.
-Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners, Kyiv says. Russia and Ukraine have exchanged prisoners in the first swap of soldiers since Moscow ordered troops into Ukraine one month ago, Ukraine’s vice prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, said.
-Fertilizer prices have soared in recent weeks as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further exacerbated global supply chain disruptions. Why it matters: Fertilizer is a key component in food production, meaning farmers are poised to face higher costs likely leading to further increases in food prices. Fertilizer is about three to four times more expensive than it was in 2020, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.
-The U.S. is preparing to welcome up to 100,000 Ukrainians and others fleeing Russia's invasion through its refugee program and other pathways, the Biden administration announced Thursday. The news comes during President Biden's visit to Europe, and in the face of building pressure from within the U.S. and around the world for the administration to do more to aid Ukrainians — including accepting more refugees.
-Russia is open to accepting bitcoin for its natural resources exports, the chairman of the country’s Congressional energy committee, Pavel Zavalny, said in a press conference on Thursday.
-Vladimir Putin's tightly-controlled state TV has broadcast warning messages that there could be a 'direct clash' between Russia and the West - and nuclear weapons would need to be used 'whether we like it or not'. Russian propaganda claims Vladimir Putin will unleash his nuclear weapons early if NATO peacekeepers are put on the ground in Ukraine - which would spark World War 3. The Russian president's tightly-controlled state TV went into overdrive to warn alliance leaders against deploying any troops even acting to maintain peace. The latest threats from the Kremlin came as footage showed the funeral with full military honours of deputy commander of the Black Sea fleet, Andrei Paliy, 51, killed during fighting in Mariupol on March 20. The broadcast saw blunt and concerted warnings from Putin’s propaganda mouthpieces on state television worrying that if NATO sends peacekeepers to Ukraine they will initiate World War 3. “If there are any sane people left in NATO, they will not approve [a peacekeeping] operation [in Ukraine],” said Knutov, also head of the Russian air defence museum. “Why? Because [a collective] NATO decision will mean a de facto declaration of war on Russia. “This would be a Casus belli, meaning war between Russia and NATO. To win this war, whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations.
-Scared that Russian President Vladimir Putin will eventually target them, Polish civilians, many of them women, are flocking to gun ranges so they can learn how to shoot Glocks and AK-47s. The number of people coming to shoot guns has tripled at Strzelnica Warszawianka, a gun range and shooting school in the Polish capital Warsaw that’s tucked in a basement underneath a swimming pool, since the war erupted, one instructor told VICE World News.
-The Biden administration is drafting an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act to alleviate shortages of key minerals needed for the technology to store clean energy. The act, which would bolster the manufacturing capacity of electric vehicle producers in particular, indicates that the administration is open to using executive power to achieve progressive policy goals as Congress remains reluctant to pass key parts of his green energy agenda. The order would declare that “ensuring robust, resilient, and sustainable domestic industrial base to meet the requirements of the clean energy economy is essential to our national security,” according to a draft of the document that remains in the “pre-decisional” phase. That reasoning follows a renewed push from the administration on its climate change priorities in light of shocks in the oil and gas market following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The order would specifically says “domestic mining, beneficiation, and value-added processing of strategic and critical materials from sustainable sources for the production of large capacity batteries for the automotive, e-mobility, and stationary storage sectors is essential to national defense.”
Several senators sent President Joe Biden a letter on Wednesday asking him to use authorities such as those contained in the Defense Production Act, which significantly expands the president’s authority to unilaterally alter domestic manufacturing policy in times of crisis, to “support and increase manufacturing capacity and supply chain security for technologies that reduce fossil fuel demand and fuel costs, such as electric heat pumps, efficient electric appliances, renewable energy generation and storage, and other clean technologies.”
-The state of Arizona has become the first to partner with tech behemoth Apple to merge a digital driver’s license and state ID with Apple’s Wallet app. Users can pass through Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport with “just a tap of their iPhone or Apple Watch,” VP of Apple Pay and Apple Wallet Jennifer Bailey enthused in a statement released on Wednesday. The digital ID includes all the data found on a normal state ID or driver’s license, plus detailed facial recognition scans, fingerprints and an unspecified list of other information “requested by the TSA.” All the user needs to do, according to Apple, is consent to provide whatever information the TSA requests using their device’s Face ID or Touch ID function.
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