*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 11th Map of Russian Operations:
Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after failed attacks March 8-10. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv. Russian advances from Crimea toward Mykolayiv and Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made no progress in the last 24 hours, and Russian forces in the south face growing morale and supply issues. The Ukrainian General Staff asserted Russia has so far failed to take its territorial objectives for the war and will likely increasingly turn to strikes on civilian targets and psychological operations to undermine civilian support for the Ukrainian government.[1] Uncoordinated and sporadic Russian offensive operations against major Ukrainian cities support the Ukrainian General Staff’s assessment that Russian forces face growing morale and supply issues and have lost the initiative. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 11 that Ukrainian forces are “actively defending and conducting successful counterattacks in all directions,” but did not state where reported counterattacks are occurring.[2]
The Kremlin likely seeks to increase its combat power by drawing Belarus into the war and leveraging Syrian proxies, in addition to ongoing efforts to directly replace Russian combat losses through individual conscripts that are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate effective new combat power. Putin is reportedly conducting an internal purge of general offers and intelligence personnel and recalibrating Russia’s war effort to sustain combat operations far longer than the Kremlin initially planned. Russia likely requires a new wave of combat-effective reservists or recruits in a short period of time to achieve its objectives in Ukraine but is unlikely to be able to generate such a wave. Russian aircraft likely conducted an attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian territory on March 11. The Kremlin is likely pressuring Belarus to enter the war in Ukraine to support Russian forces, though Belarusian President Lukashenko is likely attempting to delay or prevent his entry into the war to avoid costly Western sanctions and Belarusian combat losses. The Kremlin additionally announced plans on March 11 to deploy foreign fighters, including up to 16,000 Syrian fighters, to Ukraine. The Kremlin is highly unlikely to abandon its continuing main effort to encircle and capture Kyiv and will continue to feed replacements and reinforcements into this operation.
-Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours and Russian forces conducted another pause to resupply and refit frontline units.
-Russian forces did not secure any new territory in northeastern Ukraine and may be redeploying forces attacking eastern Kyiv to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks in Sumy Oblast.
-Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.
-Ukrainian forces halted Russian advances north and west from Crimea as Russian forces face growing supply and morale issues.
-Russian aircraft likely conducted an attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian territory on March 11 in an effort to draw Belarus into the war.
-The Kremlin announced plans to deploy foreign fighters, including up to 16,000 Syrian fighters, to Ukraine.
-Putin reportedly fired several generals and arrested FSB intelligence officers in an internal purge.
-Ukrainian forces killed the commander of Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army. High casualties among Russian general officers indicate the poor quality of Russian command and control, requiring Russian generals to deploy forward and risk Ukrainian fire to command their forces.
-Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.
-Heavy Russian shelling reported tonight in the city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine.
-“Staunch resistance” from Ukrainian air defence forces is compelling Russia to rely on “stand-off” munitions to conduct attacks deep inside Ukraine, according to the latest UK Defence Intelligence assessment. The assessment also said that Russian air and missile forces had targeted the western cities of Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk over the past 24 hours and that tactical aircraft supporting Russian ground forces were relying primarily on unguided “dumb” munitions which are “relatively inaccurate”.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-On Friday, the United States prohibited the exportation, re-exportation, sale, or supply, directly or indirectly, from the United States, or by a United States person, of US dollar-denominated banknotes to the Russian government or any person located in Russia. The White House is ramping up economic pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine. This presents a serious problem for Russia, which is a major oil exporter, as most oil contracts are settled in US currency. On March 2, the European Union also banned the export and import of euro banknotes to Russia. An exception was made only for individuals arriving in Russia, diplomatic missions, and international organizations with legal immunity.
-Officials in Poland’s two largest cities have warned that they can no longer cope with the waves of refugees fleeing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The mayors of both Warsaw, the capital, and Krakow, Poland’s second largest city, said that they are struggling to accommodate the sheer number of people who are arriving — and urged the United Nations and European Union to intervene. More than 2.5 million Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries since the war started on Feb. 24, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The vast majority — 1.5 million people — have sought refuge in Poland, with smaller numbers fleeing to other countries such as Hungary, Moldova and Slovakia.
-Russia warns that Moscow now considers arms shipments to Ukraine as 'legitimate targets' for military A senior Russian diplomat has warned that from now on Moscow will consider arms shipments to Ukraine as “legitimate targets”. The comments by the deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, reported by Sky News and BuzzFeed News, are likely to raise fears over a potential escalation in the conflict in Ukraine.
-A total of 7,144 people were evacuated from four Ukrainian cities on Friday, president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said in a televised address according to Reuters, a sharply lower number than managed to leave in each of the two previous days.
-The leaders of Russia and Belarus agreed on Friday that Moscow would supply its smaller neighbour with the most up-to-date military equipment in the near future, the official Belarus Belta news agency said.
-Belarusian armed forces’ chief of general staff, Viktor Gulevich, said Belarus has no plans to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine but is sending five battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to its border on rotation to replace forces already stationed there. On Friday, a top Ukrainian security official warned Belarus not to send troops to Ukraine amid fears that Belarus was planning to join Russian armed forces within hours.
-Russian President Vladimir Putin has given the green light for up to 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East to be deployed alongside Russian-backed rebels to fight in Ukraine, doubling down an invasion that the West says has been losing momentum. The move, just over two weeks since Putin ordered the invasion, allows Russia to deploy battle-hardened mercenaries from conflicts such as Syria without risking additional Russian military casualties. At a meeting of Russia's Security Council, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East who were ready to come to fight alongside Russian-backed forces in the breakaway Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.
-Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed that Western-made Javelin and Stinger missiles that were captured by the Russian army in Ukraine should be handed over to Donbass forces, along other weaponry such as man-portable air-defence systems, known as MANPADS, and anti-tank rocket complexes. "As to the delivery of arms, especially Western-made ones which have fallen into the hands of the Russian army - of course I support the possibility of giving these to the military units of the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics," Putin said.
-The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine in a call with Russian president, Vladimir Putin, Reuters reports.
-The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said that any negotiations with Russia will have to begin with a ceasefire as he accused the west of insufficient involvement in peace talks. He said Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams have started talking about concrete topics as opposed to exchanging ultimatums, reports Reuters. He also said some small Ukrainian towns have ceased to exist as a result of the war.
-British people who want to host Ukrainian refugees in their home under a new government scheme will have to do so for a minimum of six months, reports the Times. At the moment Britain’s visa scheme for Ukrainian refugees is limited to those with family members already settled in the UK.
-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy that he recommends Ukraine take the offer made by Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war - which includes many Ukrainian sacrifices - in a phone call on Tuesday, according to an official in Ukraine's government. According to the official, Zelenksy did not take Bennett's advice. The source claimed that the phone call was initiated by Bennett. "If I were you, I would think about the lives of my people and take the offer," Bennett reportedly said. Zelenksy's response was short. "I hear you," he said. According to the report, Zelenksy and his people did not like the advice. "Bennett told us to surrender," said the official. "We have no intention of doing so. We know Putin's offer is only the beginning."
-In its fight against misinformation about Russia, the White House is tapping into a network of influential TikTokers. On Thursday, 30 top TikTok influencers were briefed on the ongoing invasion of Ukraine over Zoom by White House press secretary Jen Psaki and Matt Miller, a special adviser for communications at the White House National Security Council, according to The Washington Post. The goal was to arm the influencers, who command audiences of millions of followers, with the proper knowledge to debunk any misinformation and to help their followers make sense of the Ukraine crisis.
-Analysts for the US National Security Agency, French government cybersecurity organization ANSSI, and Ukrainian intelligence are assessing whether the remote sabotage of a satellite internet provider’s service was the work of Russian-state backed hackers preparing the battlefield by attempting to sever communications. The digital blitz on the satellite service began on 24 February between 5 am and 9 am, just as Russian forces started going in and firing missiles, striking major Ukrainian cities including the capital, Kyiv. The consequences are still being investigated but satellite modems belonging to tens of thousands of customers in Europe were knocked offline, according to an official of US telecommunications firm Viasat, which owns the affected network. The hackers disabled modems that communicate with Viasat Inc’s KA-SAT satellite, which supplies internet access to some customers in Europe, including Ukraine. More than two weeks later some remain offline, resellers told Reuters. What appears to be one of the most significant wartime cyberattacks publicly disclosed so far has piqued the interest of Western intelligence because Viasat acts as a defence contractor for both the United States and multiple allies.
-The Central Bank of Russia announced today that Russians receiving transfers from foreign banks can only withdraw cash in roubles, reported Reuters.
-Germany’s biggest lender, Deutsche Bank, has joined the exodus of western businesses from Russia. In a statement posted on its website, the bank said it was “in the process of winding down our remaining business in Russia” and that there “won’t be any new business in Russia”.
-Italian authorities have seized a €530m (£444m) superyacht owned by Russian businessman Andrey Melnichenko as part of EU sanctions following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Sy A – short for Sailing Yacht A – was seized on Friday evening in the port of Trieste after being identified by Italian police as belonging to billionaire owner of EuroChem Group, a major fertiliser producer, and the coal company SUEK. Video footage reportedly showed police cars with flashing lights approaching the yacht, said to be one of the largest in the world, and boarding it.
-Sanctions against Russia could cause the International Space Station (ISS) to crash and lead to a 500-tonne structure to “fall down into the sea or onto land”, the head of Russian space agency, Roscosmos, said. Dmitry Rogozin, a vocal supporter of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, called for sanctions to be lifted as they could disrupt the operation of Russian spacecraft servicing the ISS. As a result, the Russian segment of the station - which helps correct its orbit - could be affected, causing the 500-tonne structure to “fall down into the sea or onto land”, the Roscosmos chief wrote on Telegram.
-Joint NATO-Georgia IT-based exercises will be conducted from March 20 to 25, the Georgian ministry of defense announced on Saturday. The exercises, which have been planned since 2020, will take place in the Georgia-NATO Joint Training and Evaluation Center (JTEC) with representatives of 23 NATO member states set to take part. “The exercises will help increase interoperability between the military of Georgia and NATO member and partner countries,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.
-In addition to Covid-related shortages, disruption to agricultural production in Russia and Ukraine because of Moscow’s attack on its neighbor could seriously exacerbate global food insecurity, Qu Dongyu, the director-general of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, has claimed. In a statement on Friday, he outlined how the two countries play a substantial role in the world’s production and supply of foodstuffs. “Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, and Ukraine is the fifth-largest. Together, they provide 19% of the world’s barley supply, 14% of wheat, and 4% of maize, making up more than one-third of global cereal exports,” he said. Qu added that the two nations are also lead suppliers of rapeseed, and account for 52% of the world’s sunflower oil export market. Global fertilizer supply is also highly concentrated, with Russia the lead producer.
-On Thursday afternoon, 30 top TikTok stars gathered on a Zoom call to receive key information about the war unfolding in Ukraine. National Security Council staffers and White House press secretary Jen Psaki briefed the influencers about the United States’ strategic goals in the region and answered questions on distributing aid to Ukrainians, working with NATO and how the United States would react to a Russian use of nuclear weapons. As the crisis in Ukraine has escalated, millions have turned to TikTok for information on what is happening there in real time. TikTok videos offered some of the first glimpses of the Russian invasion and since then the platform has been a primary outlet for spreading news to the masses abroad. Ukrainian citizens hiding in bomb shelters or fleeing their homes have shared their stories to the platform, while dangerous misinformation and Russian propaganda have also spread. And TikTok stars, many with millions of followers, have increasingly sought to make sense of the crisis for their audiences.
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