*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 8th Map of Russian Operations:
Russian forces continued concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The reported appearance of forces belonging to Chechen leader Ramazan Kadyrov, Russia’s Rosgvardia internal security formations, and the Liga (former Wagner) Private Military Company in the western outskirts of Kyiv may indicate that the Russian military is struggling to assemble sufficient conventional combat power to launch its assault on the capital. Russian forces near Kyiv made limited gains and prepared for limited drives to continue their attempted encirclement to the west.
Ukrainian forces have continued to challenge the lengthy Russian ground lines of communication leading from near Sumy to eastern Kyiv. Russian forces near Kharkiv have been steadily diverting to secure and extend those lines over the past few days, as we have reported. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 8 that Russian troops currently near Chernihiv appear to be moving east. We assess that those forces may seek to link up with troops coming from near Sumy to help them consolidate and protect their extended lines in support of the planned offensive against Kyiv.
The situation in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Ukraine remained largely unchanged in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian General Staff reporting of additional Russian efforts to advance on the city of Zaporizhya likely confirm that Russia intends to make blocking that city a priority. The forces Russia is so far moving toward Zaporizhya appear to be far too small to encircle or take it.
-Russian forces are consolidating and preparing for further operations along the western and eastern outskirts of Kyiv, especially in the Irpin area in the west and the Brovary area in the east
-Ukrainian forces are challenging the extended Russian lines reaching from Sumy, which Russian forces have not yet taken, to the eastern outskirts of Kyiv
-Russian troops are likely attempting to bypass Mykolayiv and cross the Southern Bug upriver of that city to permit an advance on Odesa combined with an impending amphibious operation against that city
-Russian forces are also driving north from Crimea toward the city of Zaporizhya.
-The Ukrainian defense ministry has released audio from a call that it claims captured two Russian officers lamenting the death of a top general and the collapse of its secure communications network in Ukraine. In the call—which has been verified by Bellingcat, the fact-checking group known for exposing Kremlin misinformation—two purported Russian FSB officers are heard discussing the death of a general killed in fighting near Kharkiv, which has been hammered by shelling this month. It was reported that Russia’s crypto phones may no longer work in Kharkiv because Russian forces had destroyed surrounding cell phone towers, and Russia’s encrypted comms system operates using 3G or 4G.
-Many of the more than 150,000 largely conscripted troops that Moscow has deployed across Ukraine have been bogged down north of Kyiv, the capital. The northeastern city of Kharkiv was expected to fall within hours of the invasion; it is battered by an onslaught of rocket fire and shelling, but still standing. Every day, Pentagon officials caution that Russia’s military will soon correct its mistakes, perhaps shutting off communications across the country, cutting off Mr. Zelensky from his commanders. Or Russia could try to shut down Ukraine’s banking system, or parts of the power grid, to increase pressure on the civilian population to capitulate. Even if they don’t, the officials say a frustrated Mr. Putin has the firepower to simply reduce Ukraine to rubble — although he would be destroying the very prize he wants. The use of that kind of force would expose not only the miscalculations the Kremlin made in launching a complex, three-sided invasion but also the limits of Russia’s military upgrades.
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| Ukrainian serviceman walks past the vertical tail fin of a Russian Su-34 bomber lying in a damaged building in Kharkiv. |
-Army vet Cody Heard is heading to Ukraine to help fight the Russians — a decision he made because of his kids. The 28-year-old former infantryman, honorably discharged in 2018, has two daughters with his wife, Amanda, and vowed to volunteer after watching news of the invasion and “seeing small children getting hurt,” he told The Post. “I started thinking about my kids. I was thinking, if I was in that position, would I want someone else coming over and helping us? Absolutely, yeah.” So he’s planning to fly to Ukraine with a group of other veterans in the next few days, leaving behind his family in Little Rock, Arkansas, and a job with Amazon to lend a hand to the Ukrainians as they resist Russia’s army. “I think it all goes back to being an American and being a patriot,” he said.
-Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has issued an executive order summoning the country’s peacekeepers back home from their overseas missions. The military personnel are supposed to join the fight against the Russian army. The order was published on the Telegram channel of the Ukrainian parliament on Tuesday. In it, Zelensky ordered the “national contingent and national personnel taking part in international peacekeeping operations” to return home so they could help “defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Ukraine.
-The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine says it continues to hold Kyiv despite attacks by Russian forces overnight while fighting continues across the country. The latest update says there is fighting in the north and north-west with “combat operations” taking place in Polisky and Volyn, along Ukraine’s border. It also says there is also fighting in the settlements of Nizhyn, Ivanytsia, Trostyanets and also in the city of Chernihiv. In the south it says operations are continuing to secure “airports and critical infrastructure”, while the Ukrainian airforce is targeting artillery shelling civilian ares while providing air cover.
-Russia’s military is solving some of its logistical problems and could launch an attack on Kyiv within days, according to experts.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-The Pentagon has dismissed Poland’s plan to hand the US its MiG-29 fighter jets to boost Ukraine’s fight against Russia, as Moscow officials said they were ready to provide humanitarian corridors on Wednesday morning for people fleeing Kyiv and four other cities. Washington appeared surprised by the announcement by Polish foreign minister, Zbigniew Rau, who said on Tuesday that his government was “ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein airbase and place them at the disposal of the government of the United States of America.” The Pentagon appeared to reject the proposal, saying it was not “tenable”. In a statement, the US Department of Defense said the prospect of the jets departing from the base in Germany “to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire Nato alliance”.
-The US will be sending two Patriot anti-missile batteries stationed in Europe to Poland to bolster its defences against attack.
-Any strike against supply lines from NATO members supporting Ukraine with arms and ammunition will be considered an escalation of the conflict, CBC News reports. NATO’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday that while supply lines inside Ukraine were vulnerable to attack, those leading up to the border fell under the protection of the alliance. “An attack on NATO territory, on NATO forces, NATO capabilities, that would be an attack on NATO,” Stoltenberg said. There have been concern among some in US intelligence services that Russia may attempt to stem the flow of support to Ukraine with an airstrike or long-range artillery. Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty states that an attack on one member state is an attack on all 30 members.
-Foreigners travelling to Ukraine to fight against the Russian invasion will be given Ukrainian citizenship, according to comments on television by first deputy interior minister Yevhen Yenin, quoted by the news site Ukrinform.
-Chinese President Xi Jinping called for “maximum restraint” in Ukraine overnight and said China is “pained to see the flames of war reignited in Europe” in his strongest statement to date on the conflict, Reuters reports. Xi, speaking at a virtual meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said the three countries should jointly support peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported. Xi described the situation in Ukraine as “worrying” and said the priority should be preventing it from escalating or “spinning out of control”.
-The international benchmark Brent crude has risen 2.38% to $131.38 at the start of Wednesday’s trading day after rising steeply on Tuesday thanks to Joe Biden’s ban on Russian imports. Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, said in a note that the US decision to ban Russian oil imports (mostly unfinished, heavier oils for its refineries) means the price could keep rising for months to come as the market seeks equilibrium. He warned it could lead to “the most significant oil supply shortage since the 1990 Gulf War (when oil prices doubled)”.
-Between the stiffer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance, Russia's early military woes and the expansive penalties that have roiled Moscow's economy, could President Vladimir Putin look for an early offramp to end the war? Ukrainian officials and Russia experts did not express much optimism. "Maybe there's more happening there than meets the eye, but the Kremlin has gone all in on this invasion — a major war of a kind Russia has not fought since 1945," said Michael Kimmage, who joined the State Department in 2014 to focus on Ukraine-Russia issues and is now chair of the history department at the Catholic University of America. "Putin has bet his presidency on this venture, so either he will get major concessions from the Ukrainians or just keep on fighting," Kimmage said.
-The world should take Russia’s escalating nuclear threats very seriously, senior intelligence officials told lawmakers Tuesday, while noting that they have not yet seen clear indications that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would respond to military setbacks in Ukraine with nukes. Putin sparked alarm among nuclear watchers last month when he ordered the country’s nuclear forces be put on a “special regime of combat duty.” Speaking to lawmakers on Tuesday, Avril Haines, the director of Office of the Director for National Intelligence, said that move was mostly “signaling” to keep NATO from intervening in Ukraine. “He is effectively signaling that he's attempting to deter and that he has done that in other ways. For example, having the strategic nuclear forces exercise that we indicated had been postponed until February, again, then as a method of effectively deterring,” Haines said. At the hearing, CIA director William Burns said the Russian military doctrine contemplates the use of smaller tactical nuclear weapons. “You know, Russian doctrine holds that you escalate to de-escalate, and so I think the risk would rise, according to the doctrine,” Burns said. Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told lawmakers that Putin may think such weapons give him an asymmetric advantage. “I also believe that when he says something, we should listen very, very carefully and maybe take him at his word. So this question is the one that analysts are pondering right now, and I think we really do some more work on it,” Berrier said.
-The International Atomic Energy Agency says it has lost contact with Chernobyl nuclear data systems as the plant is no longer transmitting to the UN’s atomic watchdog.
-Russia’s war in Ukraine is being bolstered by $285m in daily oil payments from European countries, a thinktank has found.
-The race to deliver arms to Ukraine is emerging as a supply operation with few historical parallels. Western allies, having ruled out putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, have been attempting to equip the country’s thinly spread and outmatched military, some of its soldiers fighting without boots. With Russian warships holding the Black Sea coast, and Ukraine’s airspace contested, the U.S. is rushing to truck weapons overland before Russia chokes off the roads as well. Pentagon officials said most of what will total $350 million in arms and assistance the Biden administration pledged late last month has been delivered. Congress is considering authorizing billions more. The Defense Department has described its efforts as unprecedented.A military plane loaded with military equipment for Ukrainian forces took off last week from an air base in Spain.
-Tensions are rising in Europe’s ex-Soviet Baltic nations that President Vladimir Putin might not stop at invading Ukraine, and could have his sights set on them. Baltic states in north-eastern Europe, which are now members of the EU and NATO, were invaded and occupied in June 1940 by the Soviet Union. They remained within the USSR until its collapse in 1991. “Clearly Putin is now in some kind of aggressive war mood,” European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said.
-The UN high commissioner for refugees says the number of people who have left Ukraine since Russia’s invasion today reached 2 million.
-Joe Biden announced that the United States will ban imports of Russian oil “to inflict further pain on Vladimir Putin”. The European Union has not joined the ban, but the European Commission said it was possible to reduce the EU’s use of fossil fuels by two thirds this year. The British government promised to phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year.
-Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis. Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere. The White House unsuccessfully tried to arrange calls between President Biden and the de facto leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the U.S. was working to build international support for Ukraine and contain a surge in oil prices, said Middle East and U.S. officials. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the U.A.E.’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined U.S. requests to speak to Mr. Biden in recent weeks, the officials said, as Saudi and Emirati officials have become more vocal in recent weeks in their criticism of American policy in the Gulf.
-As a reminder, memebers of OPEC are: The five founding members of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and later joined by Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962), the United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Ecuador (1973), Gabon (1975), Angola (2007), Equatorial Guinea (2017) and Congo (2018).
-Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to “double down” in Ukraine as his forces remain frustrated nearly two weeks into their invasion, but he will find it “especially challenging” to maintain control of captured territory and install a sustainable pro-Moscow regime in Kyiv, the leaders of the top U.S. intelligence agencies told congressional lawmakers on Tuesday.
The anonymity provided by bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could undermine the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, the lawmakers say. Industry advocates, however, say the technology provides greater transparency for law enforcement and warn against an overreaction by Congress and regulators.
-Poland is ready to immediately transfer all its MiG-29 planes free of charge to the US government as part of a move to give the planes for use by the Ukrainian air force to repel the Russia invasion, the Polish government has announced. Poland also said it was asking the US to provide it with used aircraft with similar operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately agree on the terms of purchase of these machines. The Polish government also asks other Nato owners of MiG-29 planes to act in a similar way. The move follows weeks of backstage negotiations and discussions in London between the Polish prime minister and Boris Johnson. Before the announcement that it would put all its MIG-29 at the US’ disposal, Poland came under pressure from the UK to go ahead with the deal.
Poland has said it will hand over its MiG-29 fighter jets to the US, which is then expected to donate them to Ukraine amid intelligence agency warnings that Vladimir Putin is about to “double down” in his invasion. The Polish foreign minister, Zbigniew Rau, said his government was “ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein air base and place them at the disposal of the government of the United States of America”. Poland is thought to have 28 of the Soviet-era warplanes, and has been in negotiation with the Biden administration on a three-way deal to supply Ukraine with air power, on condition that the MiGs would be replaced by newer US jets.
-A western ban on Russian oil imports may more than double the price to US$300 a barrel and prompt the closure of the main gas pipeline to Germany, Moscow warned on Monday. In response, EU leaders are expected to say the block will agree “to phase out our dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal imports”.
-China is developing one of the greatest nuclear weapons forces in history while Russia will exploit every opportunity to undermine the US and its allies, according to the annual threat assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. In a stark, declassified 31-page document, the report released late Monday by the House Intelligence Committee says Iran will continue to threaten American interests as it seeks to erode US influence in the Middle East.
-A Swedish application to join Nato would destabilise the current security situation in Europe, the country’s prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, has said. Reuters in Stockholm quotes her as saying: "If Sweden were to choose to send in an application to join Nato in the current situation, it would further destabilise this area of Europe and increase tensions." Even before the attack on Ukraine, Russia’s military build-up triggered a debate in non-Nato Finland and Sweden on joining the transatlantic military alliance.
-Top US diplomat has confirmed that Washington has been involved in an effort to make sure no “materials” Ukraine keeps in its biolabs end up with the Russian military. “Ukraine has biological research facilities, which, in fact, we are now quite concerned…Russian troops, Russian forces maybe seeking to gain control of,” US State Under Secretary Victoria Nuland said on Tuesday as she testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “We’re working with Ukranians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach,” she added. The Russian military previously claimed that the Ukrainian authorities have been hastily destroying dangerous materials, including highly pathogenic bacterial and viral agents, they allegedly kept in laboratories linked to the Pentagon.
-Ukraine’s ministry of foreign affairs has said that 12,000 Russian personnel have been killed in its latest assessment of their losses to date. They said so far Russian forces had also lost 48 aircraft, 80 helicopters, 303 tanks, 1,036 armed vehicles, 120 artillery pieces and 27 anti-aircraft warfare systems.
-Between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have been killed in the invasion of Ukraine, the head of the CIA, William Burns, has said, Reuters reports. The veteran diplomat, a former US ambassador to Moscow, also said the US had done “intensive intelligence sharing” with Ukraine, including details of Russian military planning and continued to do so daily. Vladimir Putin was unlikely to back down, Burns said, but neither did the CIA see how the Russian president could accomplish his goal of taking Kyiv and replacing President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government with a pro-Moscow or puppet leadership.
-Chicago wheat settled at the highest price on record as Russia’s intensifying war in Ukraine cuts off supplies from one of the world’s leading breadbaskets.
-Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are worried about the potential of cryptocurrency to serve as an escape hatch for sanctioned Russian money, with some saying the risk hastens the need for legislation.
-Retweeting Elon Musk’s comments that “we need to increase oil & gas output immediately,” Alberta’s Energy Minister Sonya Savage said on Saturday: “Agreed. And it should come from Alberta, home of the 3rd largest oil reserves. Alberta is the answer to US Energy security. Real emissions reductions, reliable, right next door.” Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney said that he and Savage would be attending the CERAWeek conference in Houston this week, where “We will be meeting with decision-makers to secure access to markets, attract job-creating investment to our province, and argue for Canadian energy to displace Russian conflict oil.” Kenney also said that Alberta would be delighted to welcome a visit from U.S. President Joe Biden, as one reportedly being considered to Saudi Arabia. Kenney noted that in a visit by President Biden to Alberta “We could discuss how to ship nearly 1 million barrels of day of responsibly produced energy every day from the USA’s closest friend and ally! All it would take is his approval for Keystone XL. Easy.”
-The British defence minister, Ben Wallace, has said that the UK would support Poland if it decided to provide Ukraine with fighter jets, but warned that it could bring the country “into direct line of fire”. “I would support the Poles and whatever choice they make,” he told Sky News, reports Reuters, adding that the UK could not offer aircraft that the Ukrainians would be able to use. “We would protect Poland, we’ll help them with anything that they need,” he said. “Poland will understand that the choices they make will not only directly help Ukraine, which is a good thing, but also may bring them into direct line of fire from countries such as Russia or Belarus.”
-Maria Baronova fears ‘we’re on the brink of a nuclear war’ after quitting Russian state-run media over Ukraine
-Coca Cola Suspends Business In Russia; McDonald's Temporarily Closes All 850 Locations
-McDonald’s became the latest western company to announce it was pausing its operations in Russia
-Procter & Gamble (P&G) has announced it would reduce the number of products sold in Russia and discontinue all new investments in the country but it would not pull out of the Russian market entirely.
-US planemaker Boeing has suspended titanium purchases from Russia, the company said on Monday, adding that it has substantial inventory of the metal and other sources to acquire it from. Russian producer VSMPO-AVISMA is Boeing’s largest titanium supplier. The company expressed regret over Boeing’s decision to scrap the contracts, which were renewed just four months ago at the Dubai Airshow. VSMPO-AVISMA also sells titanium to Boeing’s European rival, Airbus. The planemaker said it would continue to buy titanium from Russia in a statement on Monday. Airbus noted that Russia covers half of its overall titanium needs.
-The sudden death of a negotiator dubbed a “traitor” by the Ukrainian media requires “full investigation,” the UN has said. A controversy around the death of an alleged member of the Ukrainian delegation for peace talks with Russia, Denis Kireev, has piqued the interest of the United Nations. “This case should be investigated in full,” Stephane Dujarric, the spokesman for the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, told journalists on Monday.
-Within hours of Joe Biden announcing a far-reaching ban on all US imports of Russian oil - while warning Americans that gas prices are about to "go up further" - Vladimir Putin is reported to have signed his own counter-measure decree. Russia's RIA news agency is reporting that the new decree blocks all exports and raw materials from Russia "of certain materials" - with state media reports noting the specific list will be made public in two days.
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