*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 7th Map of Russian Operations:
Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The Russians are bringing up supplies and reinforcements as well as conducting artillery, air, and missile attacks to weaken defenses and intimidate defenders in advance of such an assault. It is too soon to gauge the likely effectiveness of any Russian attempt to complete the encirclement of Kyiv or to seize the city at this time. If Russian troops have been able to resupply, reorganize, and plan deliberate and coordinated simultaneous operations along the several axes of advance around and into the capital, they may be more successful in this operation than they have in previous undertakings. Operations near Kyiv in the past 72 hours have not offered enough evidence to evaluate that likelihood.
Russian troops in southern Ukraine continue to divide their efforts between attacks westward toward Mykolayiv and Odesa, attacks northward toward Zaporizhya, and attacks eastward toward Mariupol and Donbas. Failure to focus on any single line of advance has likely hindered Russian operations and will probably continue to do so. Russian troops in Kherson Oblast appear to be feeling their way around Mykolayiv, likely seeking to find a route across the Southern Bug River that would allow them to bypass Mykolayiv itself and resume their advance on Odesa. Those heading toward Zaporizhya currently lack the combat power likely necessary to encircle or take that large city. They could, however, set conditions for successful operations against Zaporizhya once reinforcements arrive following the fall of Mariupol and the opening of a wide land route westward from Donbas.
-Russian forces are consolidating and preparing for further operations along the western and eastern outskirts of Kyiv, especially in the Irpin area on the west and the Brovary area on the east;
-Ukrainian forces are challenging the extended Russian lines reaching from Sumy, which Russian forces have not yet taken, to the eastern outskirts of Kyiv;
-Russian troops are likely attempting to bypass Mykolayiv and cross the Southern Bug upriver of that city to permit an advance on Odesa that will combine with an impending amphibious operation against that city; and
-Russian forces are driving north from Crimea toward the city of Zaporizhya.
-At least 16,000 foreign nationals have volunteered to join an "international legion" created to resist Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed, after Kiev lifted visa requirements for anyone willing to fight. "Every friend of Ukraine who wants to join Ukraine in defending the country, please come over," Zelensky pleaded at a recent press conference, adding "We will give you weapons." Though the president offered no details on the international fighting force, including the origin of the volunteers, the request comes as Kiev appears to grow more desperate for help in pushing back Russian troops – having already declared martial law and a "general mobilization" of its populace. Those policies include conscription for men aged 18-60 and the commandeering of civilian vehicles and structures, while Ukrainian convicts with military experience are being released from prison to back up the war effort.
- Two oil depots in Zhytomyr Oblast on fire after air strikes. According to the State Emergency Service, the targeted oil depots are in Zhytomyr and Cherniahiv. The fire was extinguished. No casualties have been reported yet.
-Russian President Vladimir Putin has now deployed into Ukraine nearly 100% of the more than 150,000 forces that he had pre-staged outside the country before the invasion, a senior U.S. defense official said on Monday. “That’s our best estimate right now,” the official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity. Twelve days after starting its invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces have largely stalled north on Kyiv and still do not control the skies over Ukraine, increasingly relying on missile and artillery strikes. The official said Russia had fired more than 625 missiles at Ukrainian targets. The Pentagon ordered over the weekend an additional 500 troops to Europe, which would bring the total number of American forces there to about 100,000, the official said, as the United States seeks to guard against the war’s spillover into NATO nations.
-The Kremlin is likely laying the
domestic information groundwork for a declaration of martial law in
Russia should Russian President Vladimir Putin decide that mass
mobilization and conscription are necessary to achieve his objectives.
-As the ground offensive stalls, the Pentagon says the Russians are relying more on rocket and missile attacks from a distance.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), the firm that collects and calculates prices for the American Automobile Association (AAA), released new data Monday evening that shows the national average for a gallon of gas at the pump hit a record high, according to CNN. OPIS monitors the pricing data of 140,000 US gas stations and found that at the close of business on the East Coast, gas prices on average broke the previous 2008 record of $4.11 and printed as high as $4.14. Gas prices are up 52 cents a gallon in just the last week and 60 cents since Feb. 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Tom Kloza, the global head of energy analysis for the OPIS, warned, "we'll hit $4.50 a gallon before it turns around ... the risk is how bad this gets, how long this goes on. Even $5 a gallon nationwide is possible. I wouldn't have predicted that before the fighting started." Kloza, told CNN that rising gas prices would continue. "This is not the end of it," Kloza said, adding that price spikes are "absolutely out of control."
-China’s foreign minister has called the country’s relationship with Russia “iron clad” as Beijing continues to refuse to condemn the invasion of Ukraine despite growing pressure from the US and European Union to use its influence to rein in Moscow. Wang Yi said on Monday that Russia was his country’s “most important strategic partner” and ties with Moscow constituted “one of the most crucial bilateral relationships in the world”. China has broken with the U.S., Europe and others that have imposed sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. Beijing has said sanctions create new issues and threaten a political settlement of the conflict.
-Sending foreign weapons to Ukraine will lead to a "global collapse", Russia's foreign ministry has warned. Sergey Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister, said western powers sending mercenaries and military equipment to the front lines would be a "catastrophic development". Yesterday, Deputy PM Dominic Raab called on world leaders to support Ukraine with "everything from military hardware through to cyber resilience" to prevent a "creeping normalization" of what Russia is doing in Ukraine. He urged his international counterparts to supply the under-siege nation to prevent "more aggression in the future". Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has demanded Ukraine recognize Russia's claim to Crimea and acknowledges Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states if the war is to end. Russia is also demanding that Ukraine must lay down their arms and distance themselves from Nato.
-The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine is deepening as Russian forces intensify their shelling and food, water, heat and medicine grow increasingly scarce. “Civilians in places like Mariupol, Kharkiv, Melitopol and elsewhere desperately need aid, especially life-saving medical supplies,” undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs Martin Griffiths told an emergency meeting in the chamber in New York on the disaster sparked by Russia’s invasion.
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| Residents of Irpin flee heavy fighting via a destroyed bridge as Russian forces enter the city |
-Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the United Nations, slammed Russia and accused Vladimir Putin of having a plan “to brutalize Ukraine”, as the UN tries to negotiate evacuation corridors. But Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, was in the UN Security Council chamber in New York, with a different message, claiming Ukrainians are shelling themselves.
-A new nuclear research facility in Kharkiv was reportedly damaged by shelling, according to an update from the Atomic Energy Agency. There were not any detected increases in radiation near the damaged facility in north-eastern Ukraine, which produces radioisotopes and is used for research and development. But the issue has alarmed regulators who are to urgently highlighting the rising risks.
-Moscow for the first time hinted that it's ready to use its energy as a weapon, after Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Monday Russia could take the drastic action of cutting natural gas supplies to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Novak said such a move would be a "matching decision" in light of the German government halting the regulatory process for Nord Stream 2 as punishment for the military assault on Ukraine.
-Russia has published an official list of foreign states that it deems has committed 'unfriendly actions' against Russia. The countries that Russia has officially deemed committed unfriendly actions toward it are: "unfriendly" include "Australia, Albania, Andorra, United Kingdom, including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, Gibraltar, the member states of the European Union, Iceland, Canada, Liechtenstein, Micronesia, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, Republic of Korea, San Marino, North Macedonia, Singapore, USA, Taiwan, Ukraine, Montenegro, Switzerland, Japan".
It was pointed out to us that one of the 'unfriendly states' that Russia has listed is the nation of Taiwan. Our intel community obtained a direct quote of the list of countries from the Russian state news agency TASS. The direct quote from TASS says "The list includes the United States and Canada, the EU states, the UK (including Jersey, Anguilla, the British Virgin Islands, Gibraltar), Ukraine, Montenegro, Switzerland, Albania, Andorra, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Norway, San Marino, North Macedonia, and also Japan, South Korea, Australia, Micronesia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan
Furthermore, Russian legislation on Sunday stated that Russian citizens and companies have to apply for a special permit to deal with 'unfriendly' foreign entities, which seems to indicate that the permit would have to be applied for dealings with anyone on their 'unfriendly' list above. The list of unfriendly states was published along with a number of new laws regarding the decree by Russian President Vladimir Putin for 'temporary economic measures to ensure the financial stability of the Russian Federation' including enforcing a law that allows for Russian citizens, companies and state bodies to pay back foreign creditors in Russian rubles. The Jerusalem Post pointed out however, that they are not currently on the list of 'unfriendly' states toward Russia due to the fact that Israel has taken on a 'mediation role' during the conflict.
-Russian Troops Reportedly Target And Kill Civilians Attempting To Leave The City Of Irpin, Ukraine - Many sources have reported that Russian troops targeted and killed civilians that were attempting to leave the city of Irpin, Ukraine. Video footage also shows this. Four civilians are reported to have died from the attack. Video footage shows families attempting to leave Irpin when they came under fire from Russian troops. The photos of the aftermath show the bodies of the civilians that were attempting to leave. One body laying on the curb has a suitcase sitting next to it.
-Members of the US Congress pushed President Joe Biden’s administration on Monday to facilitate the immediate transfer of fighter aircraft to Ukraine from Nato and eastern European countries.
-During a press briefing today, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that discussions were still happening internally about Russian oil as officials debate on how to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
-Amnesty International has criticised the Ukrainian authorities for bringing Russian prisoners of war to press conferences. Prisoners of war in Russia’s invasion of its neighbour “must have their rights respected under the Third Geneva Convention”, the non-government organisation said.
-President Biden held a secure video call today with President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom. The leaders affirmed their determination to continue raising the costs on Russia for its unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine. They also underscored their commitment to continue providing security, economic, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. In addition, they discussed their respective recent engagements with the Ukrainian and Russian presidents.
-Plans are being drawn up for Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelenskiy to address British MPs via video link on Tuesday.He is expected to ask for more arms and repeat calls for an implementation of a no-fly zone, according to Ukraine’s embassy to the UK.
-More than 1.7 million Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s invasion have so far crossed into central Europe, the United Nation’s refugee agency said on Monday, as thousands more streamed across the borders.
-The mayor of Lviv said the western Ukrainian city had reached the limits of its capacity to help people displaced by Russia’s assault on Ukraine and appealed to international organisations for help.
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| Ukrainian civilians receive weapons training, in the outskirts of Lviv, western Ukraine |
-Russia has accused Ireland of failing to protect its ambassador and staff as required under international law after a truck reversed into the embassy estate forcing open the gates in the process. A businessman, Desmond Wisley, has been arrested after the incident at lunchtime.
-Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday downplayed the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone in Ukraine, despite the please of both Zelensky and US Congressional hawks. However, he did say the Biden administration is eyeing more "permanent troop deployments" in the Baltic region. Blinken said the US is "looking at questions of more permanent deployments" in response to a reporter's question. "We’re continuously reviewing within NATO our defense posture, including looking at questions of extending the deployment of forces, looking at questions of more permanent deployments," Blinken said while on an official visit to Lithuania.
-European Union leaders will discuss Ukraine’s application to join the 27-nation bloc in the coming days, the chairman of EU summits, Charles Michel, said in a tweet on Monday.
-Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has signed a decree banning weapons supply to Ukraine, explaining the decision by the need to defend his own country’s security.
-Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, announced on Sunday that the country will hold a referendum on June 1 to scrap the opt-out from the European Union (EU) defense policy, declaring that “historic times call for historic decisions.” Frederiksen urged voters to back abandoning the defense opt-out, calling it a “values-based decision,” citing how it will allow Denmark to work in greater tandem with its European neighbors. Joining the EU’s common security and defense policy (CSDP) would see Denmark join EU military exercises and work with the bloc to develop and acquire military capabilities.
-Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has warned that World War III has “likely started already” amid Russia’s ongoing attack on Ukraine. Ackman argued that Western failure to intervene in Moscow’s invasions of Georgia and Crimea had “emboldened” Russian President Vladimir Putin “to take more.” But he said that ultimately, the key to ending the crisis in Ukraine sat with China.
-Some holders of a $1.3 billion Gazprom PJSC bond due Monday said they received payment in dollars, even after Russian President Vladimir Putin gave issuers the option of repaying foreign-currency debt in rubles.
-Shell Limits Some Heating Oil Sales In Germany As Shortages Develop. The sources supplied Bloomberg with an email addressed to wholesalers from Shell that explained a reduction in sales guarantees it can continue meeting contractual obligations after shortages in energy markets developed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "Our scope of action to fulfill our contractual obligations is becoming narrower due to these circumstances, which are beyond our control," Shell told customers. It is currently able to meet contractual obligations. "German heating oil is a near-identical product to diesel in Europe, prices of which point to a market that's running low on inventories. Traders are willing to pay huge premiums in order to get supplies this month rather than waiting until April. Global fuel prices are surging because of concern about petroleum supplies from Russia," Bloomberg wrote. On Friday, Shell bought 100,000 metric tons of flagship Urals crude from Russia for a hefty discount. The oil major wasn't specific on which products are affected, though sources pointed out heating oil and diesel.
-Gas prices in Europe skyrocketed on Monday, reaching over $3,900 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time in history. The April futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands soared to $3,899 per 1,000 cubic meters, or nearly $374 per megawatt-hour in household terms by 10:00 GMT, according to data from London’s ICE exchange. Prices continue to grow as market players fear the outcome of the ongoing Russian military offensive in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian state energy giant and major gas exporter Gazprom said Monday it continues to routinely supply Russian gas for transit to Europe through the territory of Ukraine.
-Despite levying punishing economic sanctions on Russia, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday that Europe needs to keep importing Russian oil and gas, which he said are “essential” for the continent’s energy security. “At the moment, Europe’s supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way,” than by importing from Russia, read an official statement from Scholz’ office. “It is therefore of essential importance for the provision of public services and the daily lives of our citizens.” Germany relies on Russia for around 55% of its total gas supply, while the EU imports more than half of all its energy products. Of these imports, Russia supplies 41% of gas, 46% of coal, and 27% of oil.
-The London Bullion Market Association said on Monday that it suspended all six Russian gold and silver refineries from its Good Delivery List following sanctions imposed by the U.S., European Union and U.K. on the country. Existing bars produced by the refiners before their suspension will still be accepted. From the statement:
-As equity markets sink around the world, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. strategists say a perfect storm looks to be gathering. “Downside risk remains most acute over the next 6-8 weeks,” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients. “We are firmly in the grasp of a bear market that is incomplete in both time and price.” Separately, Citi strategists led by Jamie Fahy said a global gauge tracking analyst estimates on corporate profits has turned negative for the first time since September 2020. This is a potential “game-changer,” eroding their conviction on the prospects of risk assets, they wrote. Stocks may be well off their highs amid rising concerns on the Russia-Ukraine war, but now doesn't mark a great buying opportunity, warns UBS strategist Stuart Kaiser.
"In light of UK/EU/US sanctions and to ensure an orderly market, LBMA has suspended the following gold and silver refiners with immediate effect":
JSC Krastsvetmet (gold and silver)
JSC Novosibirsk Refinery (gold and silver)
JSC Uralelectromed (gold and silver)
Moscow Special Alloys Processing Plant (gold)
Prioksky Plant of Non-Ferrous Metals (gold and silver)
Shyolkovsky Factory of Secondary Precious Metals, SOE (gold and silver)
These six refiners will no longer be accepted as Good Delivery by the London Bullion market until further notice.
-Boeing Co.'s big bet on Russian titanium for manufacturing its commercial planes and military jets has come to a standstill since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to WSJ. The planemaker follows many other Western companies who are suspending operations in Russia. The turmoil could create future supply problems in the future for aircraft manufacturing.
-Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed for the confiscation of assets belonging to “corrupt” Russian officials on March 6, likely to acquire new revenue streams at the expense of alienating some supporters. The decree allows the Kremlin to withdraw money from an official’s account if its assets exceed three years' worth of income. The Kremlin will confiscate the assets if the official does not provide legal documentation of the origin of his or her land ownership, real estate, vehicles, and other assets. The Kremlin is unlikely to conduct fair audits and may rely on seizing the assets of disobedient officials to fund Russia’s declining economy.
-Russian President Vladimir Putin compared Western sanctions to a “declaration of war” on March 5 as the Kremlin began to retaliate against foreign businesses.[26] Putin’s “declaration of war” rhetoric is likely intended to prepare the Russian population for additional hardship. The Kremlin is likely attempting to prevent further Western sanctions against Russian officials by masking available information on their assets and incomes. The State Duma introduced a bill under the guise of anti-corruption efforts to remove public information about income and assets of sanctioned public officials on March 5 to prevent “unfriendly states from exerting pressure and influencing Russian officials” and their families.
*** Propoganda / Unverified ***
-Russia Claims Ukrainian Military Plans To Blow Up Experimental Nuclear Reactor At Kharkov Institute - The Russian Defense Ministry claimed, without providing any evidence, that the Ukrainian military plans to blow up the 'experimental nuclear reactor' at the Kharkov institute and then blame the Russians for doing it. The Russian Defense Ministry said "on March 6, foreign journalists arrived in Kharkov to register the consequences of the provocation, followed by accusing Russia of creat
-Russia makes new claims on US-financed biolabs in Ukraine. The US has “covered” Ukraine with a network of biolaboratories linked to the Pentagon, the Russian Defense Ministry says
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