*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 6th Map of Russian Operations:
The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offensive operations east and west of Kyiv, west of Kharkiv, and toward Mykolayiv-Odesa but have not yet initiated new large-scale ground attacks. Russia has increased aerial and artillery/rocket attacks on civilian positions and infrastructure, including known evacuation corridors. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a second counter-attack in two days, this time near Mariupol. The Ukrainian air force and air defense forces continue to operate, inflicting damage on Russian ground forces and disrupting Russian air and missile operations.
-Russian forces spent the past 24 hours largely regrouping and preparing for renewing offensive operations around Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mykolayiv.
-The Ukrainian General Staff reports the presence of a large concentration of Russian forces west of Kharkiv that it assesses will launch a wide offensive southwest toward the Dnipro River, although no such offensive has begun as of this publication.
-A long-range precision strike on a military depot in the Ukrainian city of Zhytomyr has destroyed a warehouse storing West-supplied weapons, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed in its latest update on Saturday. The warehouse was located on a military base in the northwest of Ukraine, the spokesman for the ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov, said. The site had been used to store the American and Anglo-Swedish Javelin and NLAW man-portable anti-tank systems shipped to Ukraine in the run-up to the ongoing crisis.
-Russian forces have opened fire at a protest against their occupation of the southern Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka, wounding five people, Ukrainian news agency Interfax Ukraine said, citing eyewitnesses. Around 2,000 people had taken to the streets of Nova Kakhovka to show their opposition to the invasion by waving Ukrainian flags and calling on Russian forces to leave, the agency reported. Similar protests were staged in other occupied areas, it said.
-Russian forces stepped up overnight shelling of Ukrainian cities in the centre, north and south of the country on Sunday night, presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich has said.
-The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said Russian rockets had completely destroyed the civilian airport of the central-western region capital of Vinnytsia on Sunday.
-Russian forces have lost 1,000 troops a-day to a ferocious defence from Ukrainian troops and defiant citizen warriors, according to official Ukrainian numbers. The loss of 11,000 soldiers, sailors and airmen by day 11 of the invasion has been a massive blow to Moscow, which is now calling up reserves. Defence experts usually calculate invading commanders usually need an advantage in numbers of around three to one to attack a defending force. In house to house combat in inner cities, which is what Moscow is attempting, this calculation can be as many as four to one needed. It is estimated that Russia began the invasion with around 230,000 troops, in Belarus to the north, on the eastern flank and offshore in the Black Sea.
-As commentators have picked over and analysed everything that is known about the Russian military’s operations and performance in Ukraine in an effort to predict the trajectory of the conflict, it’s what is poorly understood that may yet be more significant still. One issue that has come under the spotlight is the rate of losses of soldiers and equipment on the Russian side in the week and a half so far of fighting. In that period, images of dead and captured Russian soldiers and destroyed or abandoned equipment have become commonplace as it has become clear that Russian forces have lost everything from aircraft to main battle tanks and even whole convoys. But attrition is not a one way street, and what is far less clear is the level of losses sustained by Ukrainian forces, with no equivalent social media avalanche from the Russian side parading this, and Ukraine understandably not wanting to advertise its losses.
-The British Defense Intelligence update for March 6th, 2022 says that the ceasefire agreement to enable the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol was violated within hours of the planned implementation and has failed for the second day in a row. Russian artillery strikes have also likely remained at high levels.
-The US does not believe a Russian amphibious assault in or near the Ukrainian city of Odesa is imminent, a senior US defence official said, according to Reuters. There have been growing concerns about a possible attack on the city.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Gas prices surged to the highest level since 2008 on Sunday. The national average for a gallon of gas hit $4.009, according to AAA, which is the highest since 2008. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said the next stop for the national average is $4.50 a gallon.
-The self-imposed embargo of Russian oil is spreading to Kazakhstan crude, with three shipments canceled in the past 24 hours. The Wonder Vega, Free Spirit and Stealth Haralambos, all Marshall Islands-flagged vessels, were Black Sea-bound for the Port of Novorossiysk. S&P Global informed clients of the three canceled loadings, citing the war risk premium associated with the grade of oil. These latest cancellations led the Chevron-led consortium at Tengiz — Kazakhstan’s highest-producing oil field — to issue a statement that it was “monitoring developments.” Production is continuing, for now, according to the consortium.
-The US has provided Ukraine’s president Zelenskiy with encrypted communications equipment and a direct line with US president Joe Biden, the New York Times reports. According to the Times, intelligence officials in Washington and Germany are sending satellite photographs and electronic intercepts of Russian military units to Ukrainian military units “within an hour or two”. “As he tries to stay out of the hands of Russian forces in Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine travels with encrypted communications equipment, provided by the Americans, that can put him into a secure call with President Biden,” the publication writes. It was through this equipment that Zelenskiy was able to make a 35-minute call with his American counterpart on Saturday night.
-US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said the chamber is “exploring” legislation to ban imports of Russian oil and that Congress intends to enact this week $10 billion in aid for Ukraine.
-President Biden’s advisers are discussing a possible visit to Saudi Arabia this spring to help repair relations and convince the Kingdom to pump more oil.
-Oil prices soared to a near 14-year high while equity markets plunged on Monday as investors grew increasingly fearful about the impact of the Ukraine war on the global economy.Experts warned of a period of stagflation with the spike in crude likely to light a fire under already high inflation .Brent crude at one point rocketed almost 18% to $139.13 in Asia trade- a level not seen since mid-2008 - after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the White House and allies were in talks about banning imports from Russia, according to figures cited by Agence France-Presse.
-Flow Of Gas From Russia To Germany And Europe Now Halted Indefinitely - The Yamal-Europe gas pipeline has halted all westbound gas supplies on Thursday. This means, according to Russian state news that the flow of gas from Russia to Germany has been 'suspended indefinitely'. This will likely mean that oil and gas prices will be jumping significantly higher in the coming days. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin had stated that Russia would continue to supply gas to the West, sanctions placed on Russia from the United States and NATO allies due to Russia's war on Ukraine is in turn causing the Kremlin to retaliate by putting the squeeze on the West and shutting off its supply of gas to Europe.
-Putin said the conflict will only stop if Ukraine stops fighting and Russia’s demands are met. In a phone conversation with the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Putin also said Ukraine’s negotiators should take a more “constructive” approach in talks with Moscow to take into account the reality on the ground.
-China must act on its declarations of promoting world peace and join the effort to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Australia’s prime minister said on Monday, warning that the world was in danger of being reshaped by an “arc of autocracy”.
-Eva Corlett in Wellington reports that New Zealand will pass a law this week that will significantly ramp up its sanctions against Russia, including preventing those sanctioned from moving assets to New Zealand and stopping Russian super-yachts from entering the waters.
-Russian troops have reportedly fired rockets at a Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology that houses a nuclear reactor according to Ukraine's national security service. The security service claimed that Russian forces were firing missiles from truck-mounted Grad launchers that do not have precise targeting systems which increases the risk that a missile could miss their intended targets and hit the nuclear reactor inside of the institute building.
-Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC's Meet the Press and other Sunday talk shows that the administration is currently in "active discussion" over whether or not to ban Russian oil imports.
-The Russian tanks and missiles besieging Ukraine also are threatening the food supply and livelihoods of people in Europe, Africa and Asia who rely on the vast, fertile farmlands of the Black Sea region — known as the “breadbasket of the world.” Ukrainian farmers have been forced to neglect their fields as millions flee, fight or try to stay alive. Ports are shut down that send wheat and other food staples worldwide to be made into bread, noodles and animal feed. And there are worries Russia, another agricultural powerhouse, could have its grain exports upended by Western sanctions. While there have not yet been global disruptions to wheat supplies, prices have surged 55% since a week before the invasion amid concerns about what could happen next. If the war is prolonged, countries that rely on affordable wheat exports from Ukraine could face shortages starting in July, International Grains Council director Arnaud Petit told The Associated Press.
-The United States has given the 'green light' to NATO countries to provide fighter jets to Ukraine. Russia, however, says that countries that use their airfields to supply Ukraine with fighter jets may be regarded as participating in the conflict.
-Moscow is recruiting Syrians to fight in Ukraine, according to US officials who spoke with the Wall Street Journal.
-The Associated Press reported that Zelenskiy made a “desperate” plea to American lawmakers yesterday for the United States to help get more warplanes to his military. Zelenskiy opened the private video call with US lawmakers by telling them this may be the last time they see him alive. “President Zelenskiy made a desperate plea,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. The US is considering sending American-made F-16s as backfill to former Soviet bloc countries in Eastern Europe that are now members of NATO. They, in turn, would send Ukraine their own Soviet-era MiGs, which Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly.
-US officials quoted in The Washington Post and The New York Times over the weekend have revealed that Ukraine's leadership and its Western backers have "contingency plans" in place to establish a continuing government in exile should Russian forces overrun the country. The reports reveal that "a flurry of planning" at the State Department has been happening since the Russian invasion kicked off a week-and-a-half ago. "We’re doing contingency planning now for every possibility," a Biden admin official was quoted in Washington Post as saying, which also named Poland as the likely location for a Ukrainian government in exile. European leaders too are said to be working behind the scenes on supporting Ukraine's government even if the capital and major cities fall. Such "planning" on the US side appears to already be shifting toward sustaining covert support to a Ukrainian insurgency fighting any potential resulting Russian occupation of the country. It's expected that Russia would ultimately seek to install a "puppet" government in Kiev, according to NY Times.
-British prime minister Boris Johnson told Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy he would work with international allies to obtain more defensive military equipment to help with the conflict in Ukraine. “The leaders discussed the urgent needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the prime minister undertook to work with partners to provide further defensive equipment,” said a readout of a call between the two leaders provided by Johnson’s office.
-It may take years for Vladimir Putin to be defeated in his conquest of Ukraine, Britain’s deputy prime minister has admitted, as Labour accused the government of moving too slowly over sanctions. Dominic Raab said people who thought the crisis could be resolved in days were “deluding themselves” and that Nato would need to “show some strategic stamina” in its bid to force the Russian army to retreat. Raab said Putin was resorting to “ever more brutal tactics to try and wrest back the initiative” given the military campaign run from Moscow had “stuttered”.
-British MPs are urging major banks to shut their Moscow offices, after campaigners accused them of “quietly profiting” off their Russian operations while other industries sever ties with the country. Some of the City’s largest lenders including JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Credit Suisse collectively employ thousands of staff who offer banking services to large companies and wealthy clients doing business in Russia.
-Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday morning that he felt he couldn’t count on the Western bloc when it comes to real action concerning the country’s security. “NATO will protect us when we are ready to defend ourselves. Anyone who thinks NATO will protect us is wrong,” he said in an interview for Kossuth state radio. Orban praised the fact that Hungary had managed to reorganize its army since 2010 and was strong enough to protect itself and its allies. Still, he believes the country should stay away from war, as it was not “Hungary’s job to sort out world politics.” The president added that the safety of Hungarian citizens was his top priority in this conflict.
-The UK’s chief of the defence staff has slapped down Liz Truss’s suggestion that Britons could travel to Ukraine to take up arms in the war against Russia, saying doing so would be illegal. Sir Tony Radakin urged people not to rush towards “the sound of gunfire” and stressed there were many other ways that people in the UK could support those resisting the advancement of Vladimir Putin’s troops.
-Around 2,500 people were detained on Sunday at protests against Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine, Russian police said. A police spokeswoman said 1,700 people were detained in Moscow after around 2,500 took part in an “unsanctioned protest”, while 750 were detained at a smaller rally of around 1,500 people in the second largest city of Saint Petersburg, Russian news agencies reported. OVD-Info, which monitors detentions at opposition protests, put the figure of detainees in 49 towns and cities across Russia at 2,575 people.
-Ukraine’s state-run railway operator is ready to organise agricultural exports by rail as a matter of urgency, it said on Sunday, after closure of the country’s Black Sea ports because of the military invasion by Russia. A major global agricultural producer and exporter, Ukraine has historically exported its grain, vegetable oils and other food products by ship. “This situation causes problems not only for Ukraine. The share of Ukrainian grain on the world market is 11%, the share of sunflower oil is 55%,” Ukrainian Railways said on social media.
-France has accused the UK of a “lack of humanity” over Ukrainian refugees. The French interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, said 150 Ukrainian refugees have been turned away at Calais border crossings in recent days and told to obtain visas at UK consulates in Paris.
-Pope Francis said the Ukraine conflict is “not a military operation but a war” in his weekly address to crowds gathered in St Peter’s Square. However, he did not publicly condemn Russia by name for its invasion.
-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the phone on Saturday about Russia’s conflict with Ukraine and China’s Taiwan policy. During the meeting, Wang reportedly told Blinken that the Ukraine conflict is complicated and “closely related to the security interests of various parties,” according to Chinese state media outlet Xinhua. Wang urged his counterpart to not just focus on solving the immediate crisis, but to also maintain stability for the long-term in the region, and also expressed China’s belief that the conflict with Ukraine should be resolved peacefully through dialogue. Additionally, Wang told Blinken that the US, NATO, and the European Union should engage in “equal dialogue” with Russia, acknowledge the frictions between the powers over the years, and “pay attention to the negative impact of NATO’s continuous eastward expansion on Russia’s security.”
-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky lashed out at the NATO alliance, berating the block for its refusal to establish a no-fly zone over the country amid the ongoing Russian offensive that hit Ukraine last week. “NATO knowingly approved the decision not to close the skies over Ukraine. We believe that the NATO countries themselves have created a narrative that the alleged closing of the sky over Ukraine will provoke direct Russian aggression against NATO,” Zelensky said in a videotaped address, telling the US-led bloc that “people will die because of you” in the country. He also berated a general lack of aid from the alliance, stating that it only managed to authorize a small fuel delivery for the country. While Ukraine has been recognized as a special “partner” of the alliance, NATO has repeatedly warned Kiev that it would not go into a war with Russia over Ukraine. “All that the alliance could do today was to allocate some 50 tons of diesel fuel for Ukraine through its procurement system,” Zelensky said. “Probably, it’s for us so that we can burn the Budapest Memorandum. To make it burn better. But for us it has already burned down in the fire of the Russian troops,” he added, referring to the 1994 document, under which Kiev surrendered its nuclear arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union.
-Russia has instructed all state-owned websites and services to switch to the Russian domain name system by 11 March, according to Russian state media outlets. Many fear the move is a sign that Russia is beginning active preparations for disconnection from the global internet.
-South Korea will implement export controls against Belarus for “effectively supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine”, Seoul’s foreign ministry said on Sunday.
-Netflix has announced that it is suspending its services in Russia saying “Given the circumstances on the ground, we have decided to suspend our service”. Netflix currently has about 1 million subscribers in Russia.
-KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers, have also announced they will stop doing business in Russia.
-The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that they can no longer get reliable information on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant due to the fact that the internet and telecommunications to the area have been disconnected.
-A representative of the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington has said 3,000 US volunteers responded to the Ukraine’s appeal for foreigners to join the “international legion” to help fight the war. The official said the 3,000 volunteers answered the call in an interview with the Voice of America news service. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced he would be forming an official legion of foreign volunteers, adding just days ago that he estimates 16,000 foreigners had signed up, mostly from other post-Soviet states such as Georgia and Belarus.
-Pakistan has signed a major agreement with Russia on the import of natural gas and wheat, media outlets reported this week, citing Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Khan reportedly said that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had “great discussions” during his visit to Moscow last week, where the leaders signed a bilateral agreement. He noted that Pakistan plans to import some two million tons of wheat from Russia in the near future. The two leaders reportedly also discussed the long-delayed Pakistan Stream gas pipeline, which is to be built in collaboration with Russian companies.
-Consumers will still be able to use Mastercard and Visa-branded cards for domestic transactions in Russia, the country’s state-backed payments network has said, reducing the impact of the US firms’ decision to pull services over the invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s homegrown payments system Mir said the cardholders would still be able to access their funds, make withdrawals and domestic transfers – at least until their bank cards expire. Mir has processed most domestic payments in Russia since 2015, while foreign operators such as Visa and Mastercard continued to run international transactions.
-At least 364 civilians are confirmed to have been killed in Ukraine since Russian troops invaded on 24 February, and another 759 wounded, although the true numbers are probably “considerably higher”, a UN monitoring mission has said. The updated figures, relating to casualties up to 5 March, added a further 13 deaths and 52 injuries to the casualties that the monitors from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported on Saturday
*** Propoganda / Unverified ***
-The Russian Foreign Ministry has laughed off speculation surrounding an “unidentified” government flight from St. Petersburg to Washington, leading some to suggest that “secret negotiations” were taking place between Russia and the US. However, ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova explained on Saturday that the plane was simply sent to pick up Russian diplomats declared personae non gratae by the US and take them home.
-Putin, has accused Ukrainian radicals for an incident on 3 March at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine. “Vladimir Putin informed about the provocation by Ukrainian radicals in the area of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant,” the Kremlin said. “The radiation levels are normal.” Putin also accused Ukraine of preventing civilians from leaving Mariupol.
-The Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, called Russia a “terrorist state” in an interview with Fox News on Sunday.
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