*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28th
Ukrainian forces recaptured Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, on March 28. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks around Kyiv will likely disrupt ongoing Russian efforts to reconstitute forces and resume major offensive operations to encircle Kyiv. Ukrainian forces additionally repelled Russian attacks toward Brovary, east of Kyiv, in the past 24 hours. Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine remain stalled and did not conduct offensive operations against Chernihiv, Sumy, or Kharkiv in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to make grinding progress in Mariupol but were unable to secure territory in either Donbas or toward Mykolayiv.
Russian conscription efforts, which Ukrainian intelligence expects to begin on April 1, are unlikely to provide Russian forces around Ukraine with sufficient combat power to restart major offensive operations in the near term. Russia’s pool of available well-trained replacements remains low and new conscripts will require months to reach even a minimum standard of readiness. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on March 28 that Russia will begin conscription through the BARS-2021 (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) program on April 1 alongside the normal semi-annual conscription cycle on April 1 to “conceal mass mobilization measures.”The GUR reported that BARS-2021 reservists will replenish units operating in Ukraine and will be supported by convicted criminals recruited through the BARS program in return for full amnesty.
The Russian military launched the BARS-2021 program in 2021 in order to establish an active reserve by recruiting volunteer reservists for three-year contract service. BARS-2021 operated on the same principle as US and NATO reserves, where reservists actively train and are compensated while maintaining their civilian jobs. The Russian Armed Forces sought to create exclusively reservist units but likely did not accomplish its goals due to low engagement from Russian citizens. The Russian Defense Ministry hoped to recruit more than 100,000 reservists starting in August 2021, but it is unlikely the Kremlin was able to achieve its goals on such a short timeline.
The Russian military is likely close to exhausting its available reserves of units capable of deploying to Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 28 that Russia continues to train and deploy additional units to Ukraine, including the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and an unspecified element of the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported on March 27 that unspecified Western Military District and Pacific Fleet units continued to deploy toward Ukraine, but that Ukraine has observed a “significant decrease in the intensity of traffic from the depths of the Russian Federation”—indicating Russia has likely already deployed most of its reserves to Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Russia is covertly mobilizing the population of the Russian-backed, Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia to support the war in Ukraine and has already transferred 150 South Ossetian fighters to Crimea.
-Russian forces have not abandoned their objective to encircle and capture Kyiv, despite Kremlin claims that Russian forces will concentrate on eastern Ukraine.
-Ukrainian forces recaptured the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 28. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to take advantage of ongoing Russian force rotations to retake further territory northwest of Kyiv in the coming days.
-Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks toward Brovary and did not conduct offensive operations toward Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Russian operations in northeastern Ukraine remain stalled.
-The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 1st Guards Tank Army fully withdrew from Ukrainian territory near Sumy back to Russia for possible redeployment – the first Ukrainian report of a Russian unit fully withdrawing into Russia for redeployment to another axis of advance in this conflict.
-Russian forces continued to steadily take territory in Mariupol.
-Ukrainian resistance around Kherson continues to tie down Russian forces in the area. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in the southern direction.
-Kyiv sees no signs on the ground that Russia has given up a plan to surround the Ukrainian capital, Ukrainian defence ministry spokesperson Oleksander Motuzyanyk said. “For now we don’t see the movement of enemy forces away from Kyiv,” he said in a televised briefing.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Speaking on television after talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams in Istanbul, Russia’s deputy defence minister, Alexander Fomin, said Moscow had decided to “radically reduce military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv” in order to “increase mutual trust” and create the right conditions to sign a peace deal with Ukraine.
-A Russian rocket that struck a regional administration building in the southern Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv today has left at least seven people dead and 22 injured, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.
-In the UK, the chief of the defence staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, told the cabinet that Britain’s support was moving to a “new phase” as the Ukrainians sought to retake territory captured by the Russians. The prime minister’s spokesperson said they were looking at “all possible options” to ensure the Ukrainians had the equipment they needed while avoiding any “escalatory effects”.
-Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said “no one is thinking about using” or “even about [the] idea of using a nuclear weapon” in an interview with PBS on Monday evening. Reporter Ryan Chilcote asked Peskov to clear up the confusion surrounding Russia’s position on a possible nuclear attack after the Russian official previously said that Russia would only use nuclear weapons if its very existence were threatened. “There’s still quite a bit of confusion about Russia’s position. We heard yet another official over the weekend, this time former President Dmitry Medvedev, say that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if it faces an existential threat, even if the other side has not employed nuclear weapons,” Chilcote said. “So could you please clarify for us what exactly would amount to an existential threat to Russia?”
Peskov replied: "Well, first of all, we have no doubt that all the objectives of our special military operation in Ukraine will be completed. We have no doubt about that. But any outcome of the operation, of course, is not a reason for usage of a nuclear weapon. We have a security concept that very clearly states that only when there is a threat for existence of the state in our country, we can use and we will actually use nuclear weapons to eliminate the threat or the existence of our country.”
Regarding the possible stalemate emerging in Russia’s supply of gas to Europe after Vladimir Putin said he wants payment in rubles, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia is not “going to make a charity out of it”. PBS reporter Ryan Chilcote said it “looks like we have a stalemate here” and asked: “Will Russia turn off the tap? Will it cut off its gas exports to Europe if those countries refuse to pay for that gas in rubles?” Peskov replied: “I don’t know what is going to happen when they reject this possibility.
Peskov described recent sanctions as a war against Russia in trade. Unfortunately, those conditions, they are quite unfriendly. And they are enemy, enemy-like for us. We entered the phase, the phase of a total war. And we in Russia, we will feel ourselves amongst war, because Western European countries, United States, Canada, Australia, they actually — they actually — they are leading war against us in trade, in economy, in seizing our properties, in seizing our funds, in blocking our financial relations. And we have to adapt ourselves to new reality. You have to understand Russia. You have to understand Russia.”
Referencing Russia’s ongoing tension with Nato, Peskov said: "For a couple of decades, we were telling the collective west that we are afraid of your Nato’s moving eastwards. We too are afraid of Nato getting closer to our borders with its military infrastructure. Please take care of that. Don’t push us into the corner. No."
-A group of Russian citizens who fled their country after the invasion of Ukraine and spent a week camped out at the U.S.-Mexico border was quietly admitted to the U.S. in a secret deal with Mexican officials, VICE World News has learned. The group of 35 asylum seekers was whisked away in the predawn hours of March 20 and driven to a part of the border where they wouldn’t be seen: a checkpoint that has been closed to the public for several months.
-Ukrainian officials are worried that radioactive ingredients to make a dirty bomb could have gone missing from a Chernobyl monitoring lab after Russian forces occupied the nuclear site. Initial worries over missing material was reported by Ukraine's Director of Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants (ISPNPP), Anatolii Nosovskyi who reported several raids on surrounding Chernobyl labs. Nosovskyi claimed looters had made off with radioactive isotopes used to calibrate instruments and pieces of radioactive waste that, when mixed with explosives, could make a "dirty bomb". He added that the ISPNPP has a separate area for testing more dangerous materials including "powerful sources of gamma and neutron radiation" used to test devices and store radioactive parts from the Chernobyl meltdown.
-With thousands of troops deployed to Europe in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Navy is adding to its assets in the region. The Defense Department announced Monday that six EA-18G Growlers, with 240 air crew and maintainers, will head to Spangdahlem, Germany, as part of 14,000 troops the U.S. has committed to reassure NATO. The electronic attack aircraft will not be doing any jamming missions, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
-Ukrainian forces have seized back full control of the town of Irpin, a few miles from Kyiv, the local mayor said. The United States cannot confirm who is in control of the city of Irpin, west of Kyiv, a senior US defence official said. The official said Ukrainian forces have retaken the town of Trostyanets from the Russians, and are also actively attempting to seize control of Kherson.
-Video footage purporting to show the torture of Russian prisoners of war is being investigated by the Ukrainian government. The film, which has not been verified, appears to show Ukrainian soldiers removing three hooded Russians from a van before shooting them in the legs.
-Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the European Union if it remains military non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions. Moscow and Kyiv are discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would involve Ukraine abandoning its drive for Nato membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU, the people said under the condition of anonymity because the matter is not yet finalised. The draft ceasefire document does not contain any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine — the people added. Envoys from both sides meet in Istanbul on Tuesday in a fourth round of peace talks designed to end president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The concessions on Russia’s side come as its month-long ground offensive has largely stalled as a result of fiercer Ukrainian resistance than expected and Russian operational deficiencies. But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive. David Arakhamia, head of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s party in parliament and a member of Kyiv’s negotiating team, told the FT the parties were close to agreement on the security guarantees and Ukraine’s EU bid but urged caution about prospects for a breakthrough. “All the issues” have been “on the table since the beginning” of negotiations but “lots of points — like in every single item there are unresolved points”, Arakhamia said.
Ukraine’s foreign minister reiterated today that Ukraine’s most ambitious goal ahead of peace talks with Russia this week is to agree to a ceasefire, reported Reuters.
-US president Joe Biden said he will “make no apologies” after calling for Putin’s removal last week, adding that he was expressing “moral outrage”.
-On Friday, Russia appeared to pivot on its war goals. Suddenly it was no longer talking about denazification or demilitarization, let alone the end of the Ukrainian state. Instead, it stressed that it had reached the end *of the first phase* of fighting, had significantly weakened Ukraine’s military, and from now on would concentrate its forces on liberating the eastern Donbas region it previously held parts of. President Putin, speaking Sunday, congratulated Russian forces fighting in Donbas – and only Donbas. Some are wondering if the upcoming May 9 Russian holiday celebrating their WW2 victory over Nazism will be the ideal date for Moscow to claim that they have repeated the ‘victory’ over Ukraine. One can expect markets to rally on the back of such “peace in our time” dreams.
However, there is reason for pessimism. Russia is fighting on too many fronts, and the possible encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the east was always a good target: but it is still bombing Ukraine’s west. Ukraine says Moscow aims to split the country like North and South Korea – as the breakaway ‘Luhansk republic’ expects to hold a “referendum on independence”. Russia does not want to give up territorial gains outside Donbas and give Ukraine a morale-boosting victory, and it will not give up its land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine will not drop its demands for a *full* Russian withdrawal; and so the West will not be able to drop sanctions - and Russia would still be in a position where escalation would suit it better. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, begging for more urgently needed weapons, does not seem to see de-escalation. Some Russian foreign policy sources suggest Putin still wants to drag Poland into the crisis to escalate to the NATO level, where a deal might be done. Tellingly, Putin propagandists on Russian TV, while admitting the “special military operation” is not going well, are nonetheless talking about an existential struggle where defeat is unacceptable. Worryingly in this regard, Russia also just reiterated its willingness to use nuclear weapons vs. even an existential conventional threat.
-Apple shares tumbled as much as 2% in U.S. premarket trading following a report the company plans to slash production of its first 5G-capable budget phone by 20%, Nikkei reports, citing unidentified people. Apple's iPhone SE was launched less than three weeks ago and has already encountered demand issues. The company told multiple suppliers to decrease production by about 2-3 million units for the next quarter, citing weaker-than-expected demand.
Besides decreasing demand for iPhone SE, the U.S. tech giant also reduced orders for its AirPods by more than 10 million units for 2022. Counterpoint Research data showed that 2021 AirPods production was 76.8 million, but Nikkei sources cautioned shipments could decline by year's end. Apple has told other suppliers to reduce the output of its flagship iPhone 13 by a couple of million, though sources said this adjustment was purely based on seasonal demand. Nikkei sources widely say demand woes stem from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. An executive at one Apple supplier told Nikkei: "The war has affected spending at the European markets. ... It is understandable [consumers will] save the money for food and for heating." Counterpoint Research analyst Brady Wang said the smartphone market is set for a correction. "We see the end demand for smartphones in China is quite weak. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war will likely have spillover effects on the whole European market and consumer demand," Wang said.
-The billionaire Roman Abramovich and a Ukrainian peace negotiator suffered symptoms consistent with poisoning earlier this month, according a source with direct knowledge of the incident. Abramovich was taking part in informal peace negotiations in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, early in March when he began to feel ill, the source told the Guardian. Ukrainian MP Rustem Umerov was also part of the negotiation, and the men later left Ukraine for Poland, and then flew to Istanbul, where they received medical treatment.
-The State Special Communications Service of Ukraine (SSSCIP Ukraine) reported that Russian forces had launched a cyberattack against Ukrtelecom, Ukraine’s singular telephone company. SSSCIP chairman Yurii Shchyhol confirmed that the cyberattack has been neutralized and said that efforts were underway to resume service.
-The governor of Ukraine’s Rivne region said that an oil depot has been hit by a rocket strike, reports Reuters.
-Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove unprotected through a highly toxic zone called the “Red Forest”, kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, Chernobyl workers told Reuters. The two sources said they had witnessed Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles moving through the Red Forest, which is the most radioactively contaminated part of the zone around Chernobyl.
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