*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 9th Map of Russian Operations:
The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations, although the numerical disparities between Russia and Ukraine leave open the possibility that Moscow will be able to restore rapid mobility or effective urban warfare to the battlefield.
Russian forces around Kyiv did not attempt to renew offensive operations on a multi-battalion scale on March 10 following the failure of limited efforts on March 8-9. Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored column in the Brovary area east of Kyiv, likely further disrupting Russian efforts to set conditions for offensive operations on the east bank of the Dnipro. Ukrainian resistance all along the Russian lines of communication from eastern Kyiv to the Russian border near Sumy continues to disrupt Russian efforts to bring more combat power to bear near the capital. The episodic, limited, and largely unsuccessful Russian offensive operations around Kyiv increasingly support the Ukrainian General Staff’s repeated assessments that Russia lacks the combat power near the capital to launch successful offensive operations on a large scale.
-Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours.
-Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored unit east of the capital, likely disrupting Russian efforts to encircle or assault the city from the east.
-Russian forces continue to struggle in efforts to seize Chernihiv city and to secure the long ground lines of communication from Sumy, which the Ukrainians still hold, to eastern Kyiv.
-A new Russian invasion from western Belarus, with or without Belarusian ground forces’ support, appears increasingly unlikely.
-Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.
-Russian efforts to bypass Mykolayiv and establish a reliable ground line of communication across the Southern Bug River to the north of Mykolayiv remain stalled.
-Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.
-Many civilians who remain in the Ukrainian capital have signed up to become military reservists, and are busy preparing the city for an expected ground attack by Russian forces.
-A US official was cited in CBS News on Wednesday as saying that up to 6,000 Russian troops have been killed so far, after two weeks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is double the amount of Russia's own figures, which the Kremlin has estimated to be 3,000 killed in action. "Between 5,000 and 6,000 Russian troops may have been killed in just the first two weeks of the invasion of Ukraine, a U.S. official estimated Wednesday," the report cited. "The official stressed, however, that this is a difficult number to assess in real time, and the number could be closer to 3,500." the official described the number as "very, very significant casualties," comparing the tally to losses from some World War II battles. The official did not give an estimate for the number of wounded Russians, but the figure in most wars is generally around three times as many killed, which would put that number at an estimated 15,000 to 18,000.
-Russia has launched more than 50 missiles into Ukraine each day since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with more than 60 missiles launched yesterday.
-The US assesses that Russia has not improved their air-to-ground military coordination, more than two weeks into its invasion of Ukraine.
-The US has not seen any significant Russian military strikes in Western Ukraine.
-Russia is using more of its forces to encircle key cities in Ukraine, slowing its advance throughout the country, reports Reuters citing UK intelligence.
-Satellite images show a large Russian military convoy, last seen north-west of Kyiv near Antonov airport, has largely dispersed and redeployed, a private US company said on Thursday. Maxar Technologies said images taken on Thursday show armoured units manoeuvring in and through the surrounding towns close to the airport, according to a Reuters report. Armoured units from the 64km (40mile) line of vehicles, tanks and artillery have been seen in towns near the Antonov Airport north of the city while some of the vehicles have moved into forests, Maxar reported. It said images also show convoy elements further north have repositioned near Lubyanka with towed artillery howitzers in firing positions nearby.
A satellite image showing resupply trucks and probable multiple rocket launch deployment in Berestyanka, west of Kyiv
-Reports about the advance of Russian troops towards Kyiv remain conflicted. A US defence official, as cited by CNN, told reporters on Thursday that Russian forces have moved 5km (or about 3 miles) closer to Kyiv in the last day, despite Ukrainians fighting back “very, very well” around the capital city, “We see Russian forces continue to advance their troops, they’re really along two sort of parallel lines there, and we assess that the northernmost of those two lines, the closest line has reached about 40km east of Kyiv,” the official said. Out of those two lines, “the one that’s to the south of the two which kind of emanated out of Sumy, we also assess that some of [the Russian forces] might have reached approximately 40km from Kyiv,” the official added. On the southern line, the official believes Russian forces “might be repositioning themselves back towards Sumy,” but it is not clear how many forces, how fast they are moving back, or why they are doing that, the official said, adding that the town of Chernihiv is “now isolated”.
-A recently released report from the UK’s Ministry of Defence says Russian forces are “committing an increased number of their deployed forces to encircle key cities” due to strong Ukrainian resistance.
-Russian jets bombed cities in the west of Ukraine in the early hours of Friday morning hitting Lviv, Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk, as the Kremlin’s war continued to creep further into Ukraine. Further Russian airstrikes are being reported in the south-western Ukrainian city of Ivano-Frankivsk.
-The UK’s defence ministry has just released its latest intelligence report on the situation in Ukraine this morning, noting it remains “highly unlikely” that Russia achieved its objectives pre-invasion plan objectives.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-'We're trying to prevent a world war': Psaki suggests Putin using chemical weapons is NOT a 'red line' and US won't send in troops and killing the Polish jet deal was to stop escalation. White House press secretary Jen Psaki suggested that Vladimir Putin using chemical weapons was not a 'red line' for the United States. She doubled down on President Joe Biden's stance that the United States will not have boots on the ground in the Ukraine 'I'm not going to get into hypotheticals,' she noted. 'But the president's intention of sending U.S. military to fight in Ukraine against Russia has not changed'.
-US and NATO forces are taking part in Operation Saber Strike in Estonia featuring use of Stryker armored vehicles and Stinger missiles
-European Union leaders “acknowledged the European aspirations” of Ukraine and agreed to support Ukraine in “pursuing its European path”. After a meeting in Versailles, a statement also called for an immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces, and praised Ukraine’s courageous resistance.
-US president Joe Biden will ratchet up the economic pressure on Vladimir Putin on Friday by calling for the end of normal trade relations with Russia, according to reports. The White House has just confirmed reports that US president Joe Biden will announce new actions on Friday to continue to hold Russia accountable.
-US press secretary Jen Psaki said the United States has seen reports that Russia may be considering seizing the assets of US and international companies suspending operations in Russia. Psaki said any “lawless decision by Russia to seize the assets of these companies” will “ultimately result in even more economic pain for Russia”.
-Hundreds of thousands of people in Mariupol face an “increasingly dire and desperate” humanitarian situation, the International Red Cross has said. A delegation leader said people in Mariupol had “started to attack each other for food” and many people report having no food for their children.
-The United Nations security council will convene later today at Russia’s request, diplomats said, to discuss Moscow’s claims, presented without evidence, of US biological activities in Ukraine. The United States has dismissed Russian claims as “laughable”, warning Moscow may be preparing to use chemical or biological weapons.
-The Iran nuclear talks are on the precipice of collapse over last-minute Russian demands for sanctions protection, according to two diplomats. Negotiations have reached an impasse over the Russian requests, diplomats said, imperiling the revival of a 2015 landmark deal under which Iran limited its nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. Russia is requesting that any return to the agreement include guarantees that any future Russian business with Iran be exempt from EU and U.S. sanctions — a late curveball from Moscow in response to the crippling penalties the country is facing over its invasion of Ukraine.
-Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been reported very differently outside the west. Venezuela says Putin is a victim, China blames the US, and a South African pundit calls out western hypocrisy. Many an insult has been hurled at Vladimir Putin since he invaded Ukraine a fortnight ago, causing chaos, heartbreak and death. “Look at the face of Putin. You will see the devil,” one US commentator opined on Wednesday as a maternity hospital was bombed in the city of Mariupol. But for the Venezuelan pundit Alberto Aranguibel, Putin’s 24 February invasion was “la guerra necesaria” – the necessary war. The Chinese academic Wang Shuo saw it as “a US-created crisis”. “The strategic selfishness of the US has brought more disasters to the world,” Wang grumbled on Wednesday in the state-run Global Times, blaming Washington’s “selfish and short-sighted action” for plunging Ukraine into war.
-Ukrainian authorities have said a nuclear research facility has been bombed by Russian forces, accusing Moscow of “nuclear terrorism”. Ukrainian newspaper, the Kyiv Independent, said the Kharkiv institute - home to experimental nuclear reactor - had been bombed, citing an announcement from the State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation of Ukraine. According to the inspectorate, the facility was struck with damage to the exterior and possibly numerous labs throughout the building. No injuries or fatalities have been reported.
-Russian President Putin addressed soaring energy prices in the West and worldwide, saying Washington is engaged in an empty blame-game. He urged the public not to accept the US narrative that he is to blame.
-Facebook and Instagram will temporarily allow users in some countries to call for violence against Russians when speaking about the Ukraine invasion, reports Reuters.
- According to the United Nations, there are now more than 2.3 million Ukrainian war refugees who have left the country since the beginning of the Russian invasion. 161,700 have left the country in the last 24 hours according to the UN report.
-Boris Johnson has voiced fears that Russian president Vladimir Putin may use chemical weapons in Ukraine, Andrew Sparrow writes. Echoing language used by the White House, Johnson told Sky News that Russian claims about its enemies getting ready to use chemical weapons were “straight out of their playbook”, and similar to what happened before the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
-No civilian was able to leave the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol today, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, said. Speaking on Ukrainian national television, Vereshchuk said evacuations from Mariupol could not proceed because Russian forces had failed to respect a temporary ceasefire.
-Ukraine is a model for how Taiwan could respond if China violates the country’s “sovereignty” by attacking, a senior US defence official has said, according to Reuters.
-Germany’s former chancellor Gerhard Schröder is meeting the Russian president in Moscow today for talks on ending the war in Ukraine
-Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba says no progress on ceasefire; Russia stuck to its script; holding the meeting with his Russian counterpart was not easy; ready to meet again in this format; ready to continue engagement to stop the war. Mariupol was the most difficult situation, Lavrov did not commit to a humanitarian corridor in Mariupol. Have two tasks now: organizing humanitarian corridor from Mariupol and reaching 24-hour truce. “The broad narrative he conveyed to me is that they will continue their aggression until Ukraine meets their demands, and the least of these demands is surrender,” Kuleba said. Hosted by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in the Mediterranean resort city of Antalya, this was the most senior in-person meeting between Ukraine and Russia since the Russian invasion began Feb. 24.
-Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says a possible meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents was discussed; but need more preparations, Reminded Ukraine that Russia had presented its proposals and Moscow wants a reply. Prepared to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. Possible meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents was discussed; but need more preparations. No one here today was discussing a ceasefire; on oil/gas sanctions, says never used oil and gas like weapons.
-China FM Spokesperson, Zhao Lijian was quoted earlier today as saying Beijing will retaliate with a "serious response" if the US hits sanctions on China over Ukraine.
-Chinese authorities have asked state refiners in the country to consider halting diesel and gasoline exports next month due to heightened concerns about oil supply after Russia invaded Ukraine, Reuters reported on Wednesday, quoting sources familiar with the issue."This is to prevent a shortage as independent refiners are under big pressure to lower throughput in the face of soaring crude oil prices," a source with knowledge of the talks with state refiners told Reuters. China plans to increase its crude oil, natural gas, and coal production, boost reserves of energy commodities, and keep stable imports to ensure its energy security amid skyrocketing commodities prices, the top Chinese economic planner said earlier this week.
-Ukrainian Network Provider Triolan Having A Major Outage Attributed To Cyberattacks - The Ukrainian network provider Triolan is having a major outage that is being attributed by Triolan as a cyberattack according to the Internet Observatory NetBlocks.
-On Thursday Russia released its list of exports that are banned as retaliation against Western sanctions. "These measures are a logical response to those imposed against Russia and are aimed at ensuring uninterrupted functioning of key sectors of the economy," the economy ministry said. Notably, the only major commodity being banned is lumber, despite two days ago upon the initial announcement the Kremlin saying "certain commodities and raw materials" would fall under the ban. While not yet naming the precise list of specific items it's said to include 200 total products. "The list includes technical, telecommunication and medical equipment, vehicles, agricultural machinery, electrical equipment - more than 200 items in total, including railway cars and locomotives, containers, turbines, metal and stone processing machines, monitors, projectors, consoles and panels," the Kremlin statement says. "This measure is necessary to ensure stability in the Russian market."
-The Russian Defense Ministry has claimed that the United States has been carrying out experimentation on bat coronavirus samples in U.S. established and U.S. funded bio-labs in Ukraine and that it was first revealed during Russia's 'special operation' in Ukraine. According to Turkish news, China has 'demanded answers' from the United States regarding the '26 bio-labs in Ukraine'.
-UK PM Johnson told Ukrainian President Zelensky that he is committed to further tightening sanctions to impose maximum economic costs on Russia, according to a Downing Street spokesperson.
-US ARMY soldiers underwent further training in the latest show of force to Vladimir Putin as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues. Soldiers with the 1st Squadron 40th Cavalry Regiment conducted an airborne infiltration and insert as opposing forces for Alaska’s first Home Station Combat Training Center rotation on Wednesday.
-Russian Finance Ministry said domestic banks would be allowed to lend to companies controlled by non- residents and the move will allow firms wishing to continue doing business in Russia to work as usual.
-Morningstar Indexes determined it is necessary to reclassify Russia from emerging market to unclassified and will remove all Russian securities from the Morningstar fixed income indexes as of March 31st.
-Ukraine gas transmission network operator says that Russian forces have taken control of gas compressor stations, which threatens transit to Europe.
-European Union has reached the limit of its capabilities when it comes to financial sanctions against Russia, according to NEXTA citing Head of EU diplomacy Borrell, via NEXTA
-White House said the US is continuing to engage with Iran deal partners including Russia, while it believes US and Russia share an objective on the Iran nuclear deal. Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Shamkhani said nuclear talks have become more complicated every hour and that the US's desire for a quick agreement indicates it has no will for a strong nuclear deal. Iranian Supreme Leader says Iran will not bow to pressure to reduce defensive power, regional presence and progress in nuclear technology.
-European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell issued a provocative statement aimed at Moscow and Putin personally on Thursday. Borrell declared that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine starting on Feb.24 with the belief that he was quickly going to conquer Ukraine, but that "he failed". Borrell stated of Putin: he "believed he was going to conquer Ukraine" but "he failed." The EU top diplomat continued: "He believed he was going to divide us; he failed. He believed that he was going to weaken the transatlantic relationship and he failed. Now he has to stop," he added while speaking to reporters while entering a summit of EU leaders in France’s Versailles.
-Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess told the FT in an interview published Thursday that a prolonged war in Ukraine would be "very risky" for the European and German economies - and that it ultimately might be even worse for them than COVID. According to the FT, Diess said the economic damage from the war could be "very much worse" than the pandemic. "The interruption to global supply chains could lead to huge price increases, scarcity of energy and inflation," Herbert Diess, chief executive of the German carmaker, told the Financial Times. "It could be very risky for the European and German economies."
-Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov said Russia decided to suspend fertilizer exports. This comes when global food prices are at record highs, and European fertilizer makers are struggling to produce nutrients ahead of the spring growing season, increasing global food inflation risks. Making matters worse, Interfax, an independent Russian news agency, reported earlier that Moscow is considering retaliatory economic measures to ban exports of certain agricultural products to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union. Interfax said Moscow could temporarily ban sugar exports beyond the EEU.
-Russia has banned exports of wheat, meslin, rye, barley and corn to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) until 31 August, the Russian economy ministry said.
-Amazon Suspends Retail Shipments To Russia & Belarus, Blocks Prime Video
-Goldman Sachs is winding down its business in Russia in compliance with regulatory and licensing requirements.
-Walt Disney Co announced today that they will be pausing business in Russia
-Greece says it will send airplanes and buses to Poland with the purpose of expediting the transfer of refugees to the country, Helena Smith reports. The Greek migration minister, Notis Mitarachi, said Athens had accepted a request from Warsaw for help as ever more Ukrainians flee their war-stricken homeland.
-The Russian invasion of Ukraine could worsen microchip shortages due to the fact that Ukraine produces around 70% of the world's neon. Neon gas is used to run the lasers necessary for manufacturing semiconductors. There is also a looming threat of a Chinese invasion on Taiwan. If China were to invade Taiwan, it could worsen microchip Shortages even further.
-Top US General In Europe Says Anti-Tank And Anti-Aircraft Weapons More Effective For Ukraine Than MiG-29s - After the United States rejected Poland's offer to put all of its MiG-29 fighter at the disposal of the US, a top US general has explained in more detail why the decision was made. Top US general in Europe Tod Wolters said that anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons are more effective tools for Ukraine than MiG-29s would be and stated that Ukraine is 'making excellent use of these weapons now". He also said that more aircraft would only have a marginal benefit and potentially even escalate the war. "Therefore, we assess that the overall gain is low". Russia has refrained from using most of its Air Force over Ukraine, presumably due to the fact that they know that Ukraine possesses anti-aircraft capabilities and have instead focused their efforts on ground forces and artillery. We have seen quite a lot of footage of Russian tanks being destroyed by Javelins and Stingers. Anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry are seen as 'defensive' weapons, whereas MiG-29 fighter jets would be seen by Russia as more 'offensive'. One point to be made however, regarding a possible Ukrainian perspective is that fighter jets would be able to eliminate long range-targets such as artillery and strike at targets before they are in firing range. Fighter jets would also be able to destroy multiple targets at one time and respond to fighting zones providing quicker response times. MiG-29s however would allow Ukraine the ability to travel into Russian territory or over the border into Belarus and carry out offensive attacks on their equipment which is clearly the reason that Russia and Belarus would both see them as 'offensive weapons' and not merely defensive.
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