*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 14th Map of Russian Operations:
Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week.
Russia continues to face difficulties replacing combat losses and increasingly seeks to leverage irregular forces including Russian PMCs and Syrian fighters. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed that Russian servicemen are increasingly refusing to travel to Ukraine despite promises of veteran status and higher salaries. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 14 that Russia has recruited over a thousand Syrian fighters in “recent days” and that approximately 400 Syrian fighters have arrived in Russia. Russia reportedly established training camps near Rostov (in Russia, directly east of Donbas) and Gomel (in Belarus, north of Kyiv). Senior Lieutenant Sergey Zavadsky of the Russian PMC Wagner Group was confirmed killed in Ukraine on March 13, the first verified Russian PMC casualty since the start of the invasion on February 24.
-Russian and Belarusian forces increased their activity near the Ukrainian border in the last 24 hours in a likely effort to pin down Ukrainian forces but likely do not have the capability to open a new axis of advance into western Ukraine.
-Russian forces conducted several limited attacks northwest of Kyiv on March 14, unsuccessfully attempting to bridge the Irpin River.
-Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations east of Kyiv and continued to prioritize improving logistics and reinforcing combat units.
-The continued ability of Ukrainian forces to carry out successful local counterattacks around Kharkiv indicates that Russian forces are unlikely to successfully bypass Kharkiv from the southeast to advance toward Dnipro and Zaporizhia in the near term.
-Russian and proxy forces continue to achieve slow but steady territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast after initial failures in the first week of the Russian invasion.
-Ukrainian forces halted resumed Russian attacks from Kherson toward Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih on March 14.
-Russia will likely deploy small units of Syrian fighters to Ukraine within the week and is confirmed to have deployed private military company (PMC) forces.
-Russian and Belarusian forces increased their activity near the Ukrainian border in the last 24 hours in a likely effort to pin down Ukrainian forces but likely do not have the capability to open a new axis of advance into western Ukraine.
-Russia and China deny that Russia seeks military aid from China and claimed that Russia does not need additional military support to complete its objectives in Ukraine.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Russia has lined up more than 40,000 Syrian militiamen to join the war in Ukraine pn rthe promise of a “salary and privileges”, according to the respected Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The SOHR, which has been reporting on the war in Syria for years, said no Syrian fighters had reached the front but around 400 were undergoing training in camps in Russia close to the Ukraine border. “So far, more than 40,000 fighters have signed up for enlistment,” said SOHR, adding that these are not “volunteers” but have signed up on promises to receive “a salary and privileges”. SOHR said recruitment is underway in Damascus and Aleppo through various Syrian government structures that have been co-opted for years by the Russian military system in Syria.
Russian forces have been fighting for years on the side of the Assad regime against rebels in the Syrian civil war.
-The price of oil slipped more than 5% during Monday’s session and could come under more pressure in Tuesday’s trading. The prospect of more constructive talks between Russia and Ukraine was the reason, according to analysts. Brent futures – the international benchmark – fell 5.1% to settle at $106.90 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 5.8% to settle at $103.01.
-Fears that three British ex-special forces troops have been killed by a Russian attack in Ukraine are being investigated. UK authorities are investigating after dozens were killed in a missile strike close to the Ukrainian border with Nato-member Poland on Sunday, amid unconfirmed reports that three Britons were among the casualties. There has been no official confirmation of their deaths.
-The Estonian Parliament has formally called for the implementation of a no-fly zone in Ukraine and a total trade embargo against Russia, becoming the first NATO member to officially endorse a no-fly zone in the war-torn country.
-Germany will no longer divulge details of its weapons shipments to Ukraine, government spokesman Wolfgang Buechner told reporters on Monday, according to the Associated Press. The policy of secrecy will extend to switching off livestreams from the country’s highways, and comes after Russia said it will treat Western arms shipments into Ukraine as “legitimate targets.” Buechner said that under the new policy, Germany will not say which weapons are being delivered to Ukraine or how “to avoid security risks.”
-Latvian President Egils Levits has called for a “permanent presence” of US troops in the Baltics amid Russia’s offensive in Ukraine. He argued that the move would deter Moscow from “aggression beyond Ukraine.”
-The United States told allies that Russia has requested military gear from China, including missiles, drones, and armored vehicles, and that China “responded positively” to the request, the Financial Times reports. Financial Times journalist Demetri Sevastopulo also reported that the European allies who received this information have asked the United States to share the underlying intelligence that they are using to reach this conclusion. It’s not clear from the United States’ cables to allies if China is already providing the requested support, or has simply pledged to do so, the Financial Times reported.
-The Biden administration is discussing whether Biden should travel to Europe for in-person meetings with NATO allies, Reuters reports
-India may bail out Russia by taking up an offer to buy crude oil and other commodities at a discount despite Western attempts to isolate Moscow through sanctions. India, which imports 80 per cent of its oil needs, usually buys only about 1 per cent from Russia. But with oil prices up 40 per cent so far this year, the government is looking at increasing this if it can help reduce its rising energy bill. 'Russia is offering oil and other commodities at a heavy discount. We will be happy to take that,' an Indian government official said, declining to elaborate on how much oil was on offer and what the discount was. US officials have said in recent weeks they would like India to distance itself from Russia as much as possible, while recognising its heavy reliance on Moscow for everything from arms and ammunitions to missiles and fighter jets. One person within India's security apparatus said the West understood India's position, given that it needs to keep its armed forces well supplied amid simmering territorial disputes with China. Reuters has reported that Indian officials are trying to set up a rupee-rouble mechanism with Russia to continue bilateral trade.
-The websites of Israel’s interior, health, justice, and welfare ministries, as well as the prime minister’s office, were taken offline on Monday in what a defense source claimed was the largest ever cyberattack against Israel. Authorities believe a state actor or large organization was responsible.
-A drone bearing no markings was discovered by a farmer in northern Romania, not far from the border with Ukraine. The NATO member country’s officials are now investigating the incident, which follows last week’s drone crash in nearby Croatia. Police and prosecutors descended on Bistrita-Nasaud county in Transylvania on Monday, after a villager found the aircraft in a field near his house, local media reported. “So far, the origin of the aircraft has not been established, and its owner has not been identified,” AP quoted prosecutors in the nearby city of Cluj as saying. “An investigation is underway to determine the circumstances in which the aircraft was flown and to identify the pilot of the aircraft.”
-Ukraine's military published several videos it says show its prized Bayraktar TB2 drones at work destroying targets controlled by Russian forces. Over the weekend, the Ukrainian army commander-in-chief's Facebook page posted five clips showing the strikes, though giving little detail of the exact locations or targets. The drones have been hailed as a game-changer by the Ukrainian military, and have been credited with destroyed large numbers of Russian armored vehicles, gaining heroic status among the Ukrainian people.
-Local residents and city officials in occupied cities such as Berdyansk are not facing airstrikes, but they are facing waves of propaganda. The local radio station plays Soviet ballads and Russian pop songs, interspersed with excerpts from Vladimir Putin’s speeches and news items about Ukraine being “liberated from Nazis,” they report.
-John Kirby, the spokesman for the Department of Defense, in Washington, DC, a little earlier said that Ukrainian forces “continue to fight bravely and skillfully” and were using to maximum advantage possible their “knowledge and situational awareness” against Russia’s multi-pronged attacks. Kirby called out “how little progress the Russians have been able to make” in the almost three weeks “they have been at this” and he said that Ukraine was making “good use” of extra military equipment supplied by the US and other nations.
-The White House condemned Iran’s missile strike on the US Consulate in Erbil, Iraq this week and vowed to work with the Iraqi government and others in the Middle East to hold Iran “accountable.” In a statement on Sunday, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US “condemns in the strongest terms” Iran’s attack on “a civilian residence in Erbil,” which he claimed took place without “any justification.” “The United States stands with Prime Minister Kadhimi and the leaders of the Kurdistan Region, President Nechirvan Barzani, and Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, in condemning this assault on the sovereignty of Iraq and its Kurdistan region,” Sullivan continued, before pledging to “support the Government of Iraq in holding Iran accountable.” Sullivan also said the US government would support its “partners throughout the Middle East in confronting similar threats from Iran.”
-The United States has held “intense” high-level talks with China in an effort to try to dissuade Beijing from supplying arms to Russia, at a meeting in Rome which the White House sees as critically important not just for the war in Ukraine but also for the future of the global balance of power. Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, met his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, for all-day talks in the Italian capital on Monday amid reports that Russia has asked China for weapons to bolster its faltering invasion of Ukraine. “It was an intense seven-hour session, reflecting the gravity of the moment, as well as our commitment to maintaining open lines of communication,” a senior administration official said. Washington fears Beijing has already decided to supply aid to Russia.
-The Kremlin is said to have been thrown into chaos following a number of blows to Vladimir Putin's regime, as the planned invasion of Ukraine slows. Putin is reported to be furious at the Russian failures so far but the Kremlin has denied asking China for weapons to help. The invading forces have scarcely moved in recent days and the Russian attack is now mostly focused on intense shelling and airstrikes. Efforts to assassinate Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky have failed with a 'hit squad' sent into Kyiv reported to have been thwarted by double agents. Russia has so far lost a number of Russian generals, with General Andrei Kolesnikov, of the 29th Combined Arms Army, killed in fighting on Friday.
-Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, will virtually address the US Congress on Wednesday at 1pm GMT, US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer and House speaker Nancy Pelosi said.
-The number of refugees who have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion began on February 24 has topped 2.8 million, the United Nations said Monday. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said 2,808,792 refugees had now left the country -- up another 110,512 from Sunday -- making it the largest refugee exodus in Europe since World War II.
-The Antonov aircraft plant in Kyiv has been shelled by Russian forces, the Kyiv city administration said in an update on its official Telegram account on Monday morning. At least two people were killed and seven injured, it said.
-Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on a conference call that "Russia will realize all its plans in Ukraine operation," adding that the "operation would be complete on schedule," and would not rule out taking "full control" of major Ukraine cities. Peskov went on to confirm that Russia "did not request China military aid," adding that "Russia had the resources to complete the Ukraine operation alone." And he could not resist a jab, commenting that "it appears that the bosses of Ukraine across the ocean are giving orders to the Ukrainian army."
-Germany will reportedly purchase up to 35 F-35 fighter jets, a government source told Reuters.
-Germany has said an immediate boycott of Russian gas and oil supplies could hurt its own population more than Vladimir Putin, bringing mass unemployment and poverty. “If we flip a switch immediately, there will be supply shortages, even supply stops in Germany,” the economic and energy minister Robert Habeck told public broadcaster ARD on Sunday, as Europe’s largest economy intensely searches to diversify its energy supplies in the medium term. Few other western economies are as dependent on Russian energy as Germany: 55% of the natural gas, 52% of the coal and 34% of mineral oil used in the country comes from Russia, for which it pays hundreds of thousands of euros daily.
-China’s foreign ministry has reacted angrily to reports of US government claims that Russia had asked China’s government for military equipment, Helen Davidson writes. The reports in multiple US outlets cited US officials saying Moscow had been seeking weapons from Beijing for some time. At the regular press briefing in Beijing on Monday afternoon, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, said the US was spreading “malicious disinformation”, with “sinister intentions”, according to translations by journalists in the room.
-China has warned that no foreign powers or militaries will succeed in interfering with Taiwan, cautioning that any country attempting to offer military support to Taipei will face “consequences.” “The Taiwan question is a purely internal affair of China,” Defense Ministry spokesman Senior Colonel Tan Kefei told reporters on Friday. “No one and no force can stop” Beijing from a “complete national reunification” with Taiwan, Tan said, adding that anyone who tries to do so, “will suffer the worst consequences in the end.” Tan said the Chinese military stood ready to thwart any outside interference on the matter. His statement came days after Australia’s defense minister, Peter Dutton, argued that it would be “inconceivable” for Canberra not to join with the US should Washington decide to defend Taiwan.
-Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has called for a global boycott of international companies that have kept their operations open in Russia, Reuters reports. In a briefing today, Kuleba said sanctions pressure should be increased on Russia and called for international ports to bar passage to Russian ships and cargo.
-The Pentagon could need more than the extra $5 billion it already asked Congress to approve if its mission supporting the Ukrainian military with weapons and equipment and helping secure NATO’s border in Eastern Europe continues, a top defense official said. “I do believe that we will probably need additional funding at DOD for this,” Pentagon Comptroller Mike McCord said Wednesday at the McAleese and Associates defense programs conference in Washington. The $5 billion already requested by the Pentagon is for deploying tens of thousands of U.S. forces to Europe, McCord said. “If the secretary [Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin] orders more deployments or extends deployments, our costs will start to go up above what we projected,” McCord said. “If they don't go up a lot, obviously, we have some other tools to deal with that via reprogrammings.” If the troop numbers “go up a lot, then we would probably come back” and ask for more money from Congress, McCord said.
-A close ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin has admitted Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has not gone as quickly as the Kremlin had wanted, Reuters reports. National Guard chief Viktor Zolotov blamed the slower than expected progress on what he said were far-right Ukrainian forces hiding behind civilians, an accusation repeatedly made by Russian officials.
-The German multinational pharmaceutical company Bayer has suspended advertising and investments in Russia, it announced today.
-Author and political scientist Francis Fukuyama said the Russian military is now facing the possibility of “outright defeat” in Ukraine. And he’s warning Russian President Vladimir Putin that the end could be swift ― for both his military and his more than two-decade rule. “The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition,” Fukuyama wrote for the American Purpose website. “The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize.”
*** PROPOGANDA ***
-A Facebook post shared March 6 shows a black-and-white photo of an aircraft in the middle of a forested area. "Su-34 shot down by Ukrainian Fighter Ace over Kiev," reads the caption of the post. "pUtIn iS sCaReD." The post generated over 3,000 interactions in less than a week. But the claim is false, as independent fact-checking organizations have reported. The image shows a U.S. aircraft that crashed at an airfield in Papua New Guinea. It was taken in 1944.
No comments:
Post a Comment